msuwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So much for Ice threat on that map!!! Hope it's to warm? Could be....almost always is with CAD situations. HOWEVER, this is not an ideal CAD setup, as it's currently modeled. Position of the high, amount of available cold air, and strength of the high are all less impressive than you'd like to see to get a huge, model number-busting CAD, at least in my opinion. Again, will SFC temps wind up colder than model projections? Probably. But not a perfect setup as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Could be....almost always is with CAD situations. HOWEVER, this is not an ideal CAD setup, as it's currently modeled. Position of the high, amount of available cold air, and strength of the high are all less impressive that you'd like to see to get a huge, model number busting CAD, at least in my opinion. Again, will SFC temps wind up colder than model projections? Probably. But not a perfect setup as is. I pretty much lost any hope of something wintry with this storm, but I always hang on till last second if (and it's a big if this time) there's the slightest chance models are too warm. But what you pointed out I need to throw in the towel! But I think I'll wait another run or two! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I pretty much lost any hope of something wintry with this storm, but I always hang on till last second if (and it's a big if this time) there's the slightest chance models are too warm. But what you pointed out I need to throw in the towel! But I think I'll wait another run or two! lol Well, I wouldn't completely toss any towels yet for NW NC, but I've seen far better setups at this stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hey stranger...lol Its on the MS river about to move through central MS. Hello and thanks. a moderate risk of severe weather on Christmas does not make me feel holly jolly. The Euro has shown a dangerous severe setup for several runs now. If that track verifies, we have a tornado outbreak on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The last hope for the western Carolina weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The last hope for the western Carolina weenies. If the Euro/GFS don't come back east some this will be some poor modeling by the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Pack, I agree, and the map I posted was the CMC ensemble mean. The Ukie is in between the two now. FWIW the nogaps is even weaker and OTS. very unusual to see this much spread in guidance at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Storm on the 29-30 has gone from nothing to something.3 or 4 days ago it wasn't even showing,believe the GGEM picked up on it first.Might surprise you E/COAST folks if it keeps trending stronger,but the problem would most definite be WAA,good luck EDIT:Looks to form a secondaryoff the coast,never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z GFS still holding firm with the Dec 30th system...right now its a weak low with 850's just cold enough West of I-77 in North Carolina at 162-168. Good advisory criteria snows along I-40...definitely plenty of time for this to ramp up. And at least its not in fantasy range on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z GFS still holding firm with the Dec 30th system...right now its a weak low with 850's just cold enough West of I-77 in North Carolina at 162-168. Good advisory criteria snows along I-40...definitely plenty of time for this to ramp up. And at least its not in fantasy range on the model. Agreed, 850's look to warm up towards the middle of the event, but if we could stay cold enough it could reach warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Something to note: The model wants to put a good band of snow almost exactly parallel to the heavy snow pack that's already down. This is a very good sign - and very typical of a progressively cold pattern. Also look at the next storm which puts down snowpack right next to that one. I think anything after 180h for the GFS will be fairly useless until the new years storm is over and done, frankly. It can't handle progressive patterns very well because with each storm there is more and more variability, and more feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Alright folks, 18z gfs ensemble mean at 156 hours. Let's lock this in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If the Euro/GFS don't come back east some this will be some poor modeling by the CMC. yep.. Even though it's likely not happening, this track loosely corresponds to the day-4 surface map HPC put out last night (forecaster Cisco). It looked as if they were riding CMC and UKMET guidance on their products last night. Although, HPC's map had the parent low near Statesboro/Savannah, GA and even an occluded low over north GA which would be a wild solution. HPC amended it back this morning, but this still looks like an easter outlier. It is interesting to note that the UKmet has been right up there with the Euro on verification scores. In looking at the GFS, it won't surprise me at all when we get closer to the event when each model run will probably recognize a slightly taller ridge out west leading to more of a bundled energy look with slightly more dig to the trof in the Mississippi Valley on the 25th. In the end this may lead to a tad more intense of a system pulling inland with a more dynamic core on the northwestern side with a stout squall line of storms in GA and midlands of SC. I will say that I don't see the base of this trough being strung out to allow a weaker wave to roll from Jackson, MS to Charleston, SC and OTS Speaking of sharpening the trof as it gets closer, I made it a point to check that exact thing (whether the GFS was sharpening it or stringing it out) back on Thursday night's midwest storm compared to past 0z runs. Thursday night was when the 5H closed low was fully negative allowing for the blizzard in the upper Midwest. Sure enough. When comparing the 6-hr chart on Friday's 0z with the 30hr chart on Thursday's 0z and the 54hr chart on Wednesday's 0z... the trof has sharpened on every subsequent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 News from the potential bullseye: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 335 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2012 RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AT LOWER LEVELS. FOR HIGH TEMPS...FOLLOWED THE MILDER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...BASED ON UPSTREAM READINGS IN THE 60S ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST MOVING/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODEL QPF AND MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN KY...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. FOLLOWED HPC QPF GUIDANCE AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN PARTS OF WESTERN KY. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY RAIN...DUE TO A PERSISTENT WARM LAYER AROUND 850 MB. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2012 LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW CHRISTMAS DAY INTO WEDNESDAY...TAKING IT FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO JUST EAST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND GFS AT THE SAME LOCATION AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW. THE PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW WEST AND A RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE PAH FA CHRISTMAS EVENING...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS AREA WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR COUNTIES. ALL IN ALL...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE LATEST NAM SHOW THE LOW TAKING A TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE PAH FA...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A COLDER BUT LOWER QPF SOLUTION. THIS CAUSES SOME HESITATION IN GETTING TOO ROBUST WITH ANY SNOW AMOUNTS. IN EITHER CASE...ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS WIND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP QUITE A BIT CHRISTMAS DAY AND ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40 TO 50 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. EVEN IF SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...WINDS WOULD MAKE ANY DETERIORATING ROAD AND DRIVING CONDITIONS EVEN WORSE FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. AFTER SOME LINGERING SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY AND COLD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. SOME LIGHT RAN AND/OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOTHING LIKE OUR MID WEEK SYSTEM...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Snow and ice sneaking in on HPC This is what Nashville thinks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hello and thanks. a moderate risk of severe weather on Christmas does not make me feel holly jolly. The Euro has shown a dangerous severe setup for several runs now. If that track verifies, we have a tornado outbreak on our hands. Given that the last few runs of the GFS, and the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are starting to converge on such a low track, this seems to be the direction we're heading in. A broad based trough with an intense jet streak like that certainly raises some eyebrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Given that the last few runs of the GFS, and the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are starting to converge on such a low track, this seems to be the direction we're heading in. A broad based trough with an intense jet streak like that certainly raises some eyebrows. Already seeing an ominous signal from the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aubighitter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Quite naught looking for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aubighitter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Winds coming in from due south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 How far east of the mountains could we see severe weather. Are the cad areas likely to see this or is it more towards the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Cad areas mostly protected from severe Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lol even cle might be in trouble now. What a massive 850 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS showing over 2.50 inches of rain from this storm in parts of WNC.. that would officially give me over 6 inches for the month! So much for being dry here at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 992 over Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Might as well call this run a lakes cutter goes up into central Ohio before shifting E/NE into New York. Will bring major Cold into NC on back side and really set the table for late week potential. I just have a hard time beleiving the GFS ramming a miller A up into that block the way it just showed. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 00z GFS is coming in. It looks like Memphis may get some snow out of this too, and it may accumulate all the way to Southaven, MS. The cumberland plateau gets a little accumulation too - but nobody else does further east except the highest elevations. The cutoff is pretty sharp. Dyersburg to Paducah does really well. Murray, KY is right near the edge. Clarksville and Nashville get nothing from this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Swing and a miss on 12/30. Wouldn't even call it a swing, more like a bunted foul ball. Counted 5 closed lows up south of Alaskaaround hr 144ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 00z GFS is coming in. It looks like Memphis may get some snow out of this too, and it may accumulate all the way to Southaven, MS. The cumberland plateau gets a little accumulation too - but nobody else does further east except the highest elevations. The cutoff is pretty sharp. Dyersburg to Paducah does really well. Murray, KY is right near the edge. Clarksville and Nashville get nothing from this run. Southaven is a southern suburb of Memphis....it looks like some light accumulations would be possible down to just south of Clarksdale in the MS delta, however. It's very difficult to tell without having the Buffkit data in hand yet. In analyzing the run verbatim, it looks like 4-6" for Memphis proper but the gradient is very tight so it's not like anyone's gonna feel like it's a likely scenario. Certainly, it was an vast improvement from the 12z for us. Of course, Dr. No will be out shortly and hopefully he'll have a yes this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 00Z UK finally makes the big shift - tracks deepening surface low through WC MS and N AL to an eventually weaken into NC as new development occurs over the Tidewater Wed evening. Unless something crazy happens, this seems to put the severe threat as the big issue for most of the SE. What makes me particularly nervous about the severe potential with this setup is that the lead wave moving through Monday will pull up quite a bit of moisture which will just be left behind as that wave moves off and everything waits for the big system Tuesday/Tuesday night. This will result in an unusually moist and unstable airmass (especially for late December) for an extremely potent weather system to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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