msuwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Still an interesting system, and even though things are slowly locking in, there's still lots of details that'll be ironed out over the next few days. Foothills and mountains of NC on north especially have something to keep an eye on (talking about the areas east of the mountains). Interesting prelim HPC plot. They are not going as far north as the Euro and actually look closest to the GEM in terms of SLP track. Also, interesting to note that the GEM ENS is a little south of the operational. All charts are for 12z Wed AM. Keep in mind, we really aren't talking about HUGE differences here, but as always, small details make the big differences for individual spots around here. HPC prelim plot: Models at 12z Wed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 With the 0Z CMC having gone a good bit NW, which would easily be enough to take the snow away from the bulk of N GA, with no CAD related wintry precip., with no model now giving sig. wintry precip. to the bulk of N GA, and with run after run if both the gfs and Euro doing the same, I'm reducing the chance from 5% to 3% for that area and from 10% to 5% for far north GA (nonmtn areas) for sig. wintry precip. The one to follow for these areas is the one near 1/1. Right now, I'm giving that storm a 25% chance of producing sig. wintry precip. for the bulk of N GA ATL-AHN north . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 With the 0Z CMC having gone a good bit NW, which would easily be enough to take the snow away from the bulk of N GA, with no CAD related wintry precip., with no model now giving sig. wintry precip. to the bulk of N GA, and with run after run if both the gfs and Euro doing the same, I'm reducing the chance from 5% to 3% for that area and from 10% to 5% for far north GA (nonmtn areas) for sig. wintry precip. The one to follow for these areas is the one near 1/1. Right now, I'm giving that storm a 25% chance of producing sig. wintry precip. for the bulk of N GA ATL-AHN north . There's a rule in poker... no matter who the player is, there's always a 10% chance it's a bluff. I'd say the same for any given storm.... I'd give you 10% on the Christmas storm. I try to keep that in mind right now and when I'm on the outside looking in. BTW, I believe if we get nailed by storm 1, it helps you guys with storm 2 because it changes the orientation of the baroclinic zone. My dad lives in Winston and is a snow nut himself, so I'm watching from both perspectives. Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 There's a rule in poker... no matter who the player is, there's always a 10% chance it's a bluff. I'd say the same for any given storm.... I'd give you 10% on the Christmas storm. I try to keep that in mind right now and when I'm on the outside looking in. BTW, I believe if we get nailed by storm 1, it helps you guys with storm 2 because it changes the orientation of the baroclinic zone. My dad lives in Winston and is a snow nut himself, so I'm watching from both perspectives. Sent from my Milestone X 2 Based on the climo infrequency (typically only one or two at most per winter for Atl-Ahn) in combo with the now total lack of model support for a winter storm now within only four days, I think 10% is being way too generous. I think 3% is more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Matt, do you have in between hours for the Ukie too? For the weenies, Nogaps throws another bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 At this time, all I would stake my reputation on is a sloppy mix on the 26th in far NW North Carolina followed by some backside upslope. Everyone needs snow and LOTS of it. Hopefully everyone's home town will eventually get a good accumulation this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Probably goes without saying but 12z runs will be interesting. Got to see if ukmet and Canadian and Nogaps will stay east of the apps. Looks like everyone else including NAM are heading north. Need to check if some gfs ensemble members are still showing an east/south solution . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 06z gfs is in lock step with the 00 euro. Heaviest snow is in NW TN near Dyersburg headed NE across KY. The rest of TN outside of the Smokys and maybe the Cumberland Plateau gets only flurries with little or no accumulation. Verbatim, only Boone and places around there get snow in NC. The new years storm is non existent for the entire southeast, and even though there's a quick push of cold air it's not vodka cold due to a lack of snowpack. The 00z ensemble members looked better for TN, but with the Euro locking in with the op GFS, there's a good chance they both are right. I think it has more to with the position of the PV not snowpack. The pv dumped into the us on the 00z run last night and didnt on the 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Matt, do you have in between hours for the Ukie too? For the weenies, Nogaps throws another bone. I don't have a great UKMET site, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't have a great UKMET site, unfortunately. GFS is rolling....looks like the energy is digging more out west than earlier runs. Let's see where she ends up. Edit..... Still has not closed off at 66hr. Looking better so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS is rolling....looks like the energy is digging more out west than earlier runs. Let's see where she ends up. My early guess is a little north west of the 00z run. Everything is shifted slightly to the north on this run at 5h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 My early guess is a little north west of the 00z run. Everything is shifted slightly to the north on this run at 5h. Out to 84....still has not closed off.....might be a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That closed low is really amped up on this run...someone is going to get clobbered with snow..probably in IN on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That closed low is really amped up on this run...someone is going to get clobbered with snow..probably in IN on this run. Yep...still west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow, where is the confluence...I am sure there is panic in the NE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 And another Miller Bish type system on day 7...eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 And another Miller Bish type system on day 7...eh It's marginal but might be a close call for I-40 north with that second one. I wanna see what the one coming behind it will do, that's going to be the one to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Anyone care to post the Gfs clown map for this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Anyone care to post the Gfs clown map for this run? There ya go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 DT on 12z GFS.... Wxrisk.com The TECHNICAL or meteorological reason for this is that the GFS takes energy over Great Lakes and tries to PHASE or merge it with the big Low coming out of the Delta. I reject this solution totally AT THIS TIME.... I suppose something like this had to happen given the strong Model agreement of the past 36 hrs or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 And another Miller Bish type system on day 7...eh I wouldn't quite call that a Miller-B on Day 7...that more or less a quick moving s/w in the flow. 850's would support some frozen precip over Tennessee and into WNC...good advisory criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Thanks burger.... Trying to follow on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 There ya go... Wow. NC gets buried on that map. The whole state is white!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow. NC gets buried on that map. The whole state is white!!!!!! So much snow it's not even on the key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 There ya go... Well, cold air should have an efficient trip south, if that map is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looking out past Day 7...the feature for Jan 2nd is being held back a bit longer, but you can plainly see moisture is building over Texas at 252... I know several people have mentioned that the 30th is the one we should watch out for...we'll have to see if the models ramp up the moisture in the coming days. I think we got a possible storm threat for those along I-40 in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I wouldn't quite call that a Miller-B on Day 7...that more or less a quick moving s/w in the flow. 850's would support some frozen precip over Tennessee and into WNC...good advisory criteria event. Well, there's a primary low initially over the TN valley then a transfer/redevelopment/coalescence into one LP off the coast. Thus the phrase "Miller Bish" In any event...it's probably a moot point until we get past the evolution of the Boxing day event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The GGEM delivers a good hit to TN valley/NC mountains and then VA and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The GGEM delivers a good hit to TN valley/NC mountains and then VA and points north. Yep still looks pretty good for nw NC and E.tenn, Western Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Guys remember we are in the range where we may start to lose the system, just think back to Christmas storm 2010...3-4 days out it was a non-event. Don't lose hope based on today's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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