NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks about 200 miles east of 12z...but difficult to tell w/ 24 hr. intervals where it goes. Still, it seems to me a piece of this goes west of the Apps and then jumps to near the coast. Warm nose would keep the TN Valley mostly rain for 80% of the event. Too early to nail this down, yet. Some potential still with this though if you are west of the Apps... Yea it's definetly east, no way it gets from point A to point B w/o being a 100 miles + futher east at a minimum. Anyway my eyes are rolling in back of my head. Someone put the accum maps up if u got em, I'll check it and the LR in the a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 114 CMC 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On wundermap, the Euro is way west. The 24 hour maps are a big illusion. The sfc low tracks through central Tenn into E KY. looks like south central Arkansas through western TN get in on some snow. The sfc low dies in E KY with secondary reforming in E NC, then tracking to E VA at hr 120. Wintry precip is overall way north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 euro is on board with the cold shot on new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Southside VA still gets a nice storm. Roanoke looks like about 10" of snow or more, so does Boone/Blowing Rock. For the post Christmas storm or New Years storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 For the post Christmas storm or New Years storm? Post christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On wundermap, the Euro is way west. The 24 hour maps are a big illusion. The sfc low tracks through central Tenn into E KY. looks like south central Arkansas through western TN get in on some snow. The sfc low dies in E KY with secondary reforming in E NC, then tracking to E VA at hr 120. Wintry precip is overall way north and west Very reasonable scenario. I would be surprised to see the whole slp go west. Usually, some of the energy turns the corner in southern GA roughly speaking with these types of systems. I still think the models are having trouble with what to do with the various pieces of energy. However, looks like they are getting closer to a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wait a minute... If the EURO is WAYY West, then Roanoke and NW NC would not be seeing those kind of snow totals...Map anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wxrisk.com *** ALERT *** 0z Saturday of the Euro coming is close to 0z GFS s and GFS ENSEMBLE.. HEAVY snow for western va... all of Shenandoah gets 8-12" snow into much of WVA western MD central MD and all of PA ..except for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Good snow for western NC this run again. I bet the accu-pro map will be interesting. Thats what it looks like to me,the winner this around will be W/Tn.Ark ,Didn't like the W shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would really like for the CMC, GGEM, UKMET, and NOGAPS solution to play out. For my area 40mi N of CLT, the temperature would be around 3C at the onset of the precip per GFS. CAD signature is present during that time, with erosion later. IF the CMC, GGEM, UKMET, or NOGAPS play out then the low would track at or southeast of CLT. That would save us from the warm advection. We still need a stronger high pressure to the north to funnel more cold air. I still have SOME faith in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would really like for the CMC, GGEM, UKMET, and NOGAPS solution to play out. For my area 40mi N of CLT, the temperature would be around 3C at the onset of the precip per GFS. CAD signature is present during that time, with erosion later. IF the CMC, GGEM, UKMET, or NOGAPS play out then the low would track at or southeast of CLT. That would save us from the warm advection. We still need a stronger high pressure to the north to funnel more cold air. I still have SOME faith in this storm. GGEM..is the outlier from hpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Not sure how folks are getting the 00z Euro was further west than the 12z the 00z looks much further east to me. Definite trend in the right direction. Gives the I-40 corridor a swath of snow on this run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On wundermap, the Euro is way west. The 24 hour maps are a big illusion. The sfc low tracks through central Tenn into E KY. looks like south central Arkansas through western TN get in on some snow. The sfc low dies in E KY with secondary reforming in E NC, then tracking to E VA at hr 120. Wintry precip is overall way north and west I think you were actually looking at the 12z? 00z had the low basically going along I-85 and it didn't do it's little split until it almost reached Charlotte. 12z however took the route you are saying through the middle of TN before it split and sent the bulk of the moisture towards Charlotte nearly due east. Again I thought the 00z Euro was a great step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ENS pretty much lock step with 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think you were actually looking at the 12z? 00z had the low basically going along I-85 and it didn't do it's little split until it almost reached Charlotte. 12z however took the route you are saying through the middle of TN before it split and sent the bulk of the moisture towards Charlotte nearly due east. Again I thought the 00z Euro was a great step in the right direction. The 00z euro has the heaviest snow Memphis and north east. Nashville barely gets anything and only the mountains in TN and NC are the only places to get snow. Only I40 from Nashville west gets snow. Even MRX here is going with that idea and has lessened the probabilities of any snow here. If you are between Nashville and the coast on I40, chances don't look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 06z gfs is in lock step with the 00 euro. Heaviest snow is in NW TN near Dyersburg headed NE across KY. The rest of TN outside of the Smokys and maybe the Cumberland Plateau gets only flurries with little or no accumulation. Verbatim, only Boone and places around there get snow in NC. The new years storm is non existent for the entire southeast, and even though there's a quick push of cold air it's not vodka cold due to a lack of snowpack. The 00z ensemble members looked better for TN, but with the Euro locking in with the op GFS, there's a good chance they both are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I forgot to add, OHX thinks any accumulation will be to their northwest. They forecast the low crossing Huntsville headed northeast. Unless things change, onto January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 00z euro has the heaviest snow Memphis and north east. Nashville barely gets anything and only the mountains in TN and NC are the only places to get snow. Only I40 from Nashville west gets snow. Even MRX here is going with that idea and has lessened the probabilities of any snow here. If you are between Nashville and the coast on I40, chances don't look great. This is still days away with the actual energy yet to be properly sampled. Chances don't look great right now for anyone. Euro was more east and thus the chance increased for snow east of TN compared to the 12z because of stronger CAD. You've got a 1028 sitting in NY and a 1024 sitting in PA. So yes anything west of TN will not get in on the CAD action. Not sure how BNA falls into the equation based on what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I forgot to add, OHX thinks any accumulation will be to their northwest. They forecast the low crossing Huntsville headed northeast. Unless things change, onto January. Good thing we have you around. Not sure why we even bother with red taggers or looking at models. Things will change from now until probably Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Good thing we have you around. Not sure why we even bother with red taggers or looking at models. Things will change from now until probably Tuesday. Mets can chime in and correct me anytime they want. I welcome it. I don't buy the whole well this low and that low arguments. The models take them into account and compute accordingly. The model solution can't be thrown out willy nilly because you don't like the output. Weight them accordingly and go with a consensus. Physician, heal thyself. You were talking about the 00z euro and what it read and I looked it up and you weren't reading the model. The snowfall output was not what you describe. It hasn't been for 23 hours at least. Don't be sarcastic about me saying what a model says when you were doing the same. Models won't change that much now that we are nearing the bulls eye with nothing between us from NW until it hits. How much do you want to bet that HPC will issue snow threats on Sunday for a stripe around Dyersburg and Sikeston northeast for this storm? What I'm talking about is backed up by the mets at MRX and OHX. I've done my share of wish casting, but it's time to be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Mets can chime in and correct me anytime they want. I welcome it. I don't buy the whole well this low and that low arguments. The models take them into account and compute accordingly. The model solution can't be thrown out willy nilly because you don't like the output. Weight them accordingly and go with a consensus. Physician, heal thyself. You were talking about the 00z euro and what it read and I looked it up and you weren't reading the model. The snowfall output was not what you describe. It hasn't been for 23 hours at least. Don't be sarcastic about me saying what a model says when you were doing the same. What I'm talking about it backed up by the mets at MRX and OHX. I've done my share of wish casting, but it's time to be realistic. Cool story bro but I just explained what I was reading from the model. 00z IS further east and the CAD signature IS stronger. The 00z Euro snow map on AccuPro DOES have a swath of snow for points I-40 north in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Cool story bro but I just explained what I was reading from the model. 00z IS further east and the CAD signature IS stronger. The 00z Euro snow map on AccuPro DOES have a swath of snow for points I-40 north in WNC. It's not accurate. Its not further east with the swath of snow and it's almost right on top of the 06z gfs. Don't trust every snow accumulation map you see, especially the gaps between the lowest three points of the scale. For example, the GFS still thinks there is 0.1 inches of snow in Knoxville. Temps are warming and I don't think the CAD if any will play out much. Elevation, yes. CAD, not really. Boone maybe, Hickory, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Among all the winter weather chatter I strongly believe there is another issue that needs to be monitored closely S of I-20 and that is a Severe Weather episode. The SPC has included portions of the Deep South in their day 4 Outlook that may well suggest a tornado threat and very strong storms. With folks traveling and busy with other activities, I believe it is important to mention that potential late Christmas night into the 26th. At this time the greatest threat would be from SE TX, Southern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and Southern Alabama. There will likely be societal impacts with this very dynamic Winter Storm event beyond any snow threat in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I just checked Blacksburg. The think even the NC mountains will be rain until the end, and don't think CAD will be much a factor, if any. Now north into Virginia and WV it'll be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Cool story bro but I just explained what I was reading from the model. 00z IS further east and the CAD signature IS stronger. The 00z Euro snow map on AccuPro DOES have a swath of snow for points I-40 north in WNC. Just went back and did a comparison of the 00z GFS vs. the new 06z GFS frame by frame and Burger is right. The CAD signature is stronger with this latest run compared to the last cycle. Looks like it shifted the low eastward about 50 miles. The 850 line is a little south of where it was, and the 0c surface isotherm is also south. Looks like it now includes the northern stripe of counties along the VA border at the onset. We are not where we want to be yet and we will probably not end up with a solution like we saw from the 18z two days ago, but we are stepping back toward it. Hey, at least we are going in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just went back and did a comparison of the 00z GFS vs. the new 06z GFS frame by frame and Burger is right. The CAD signature is stronger with this latest run compared to the last cycle. Looks like it shifted the low eastward about 50 miles. The 850 line is a little south of where it was, and the 0c surface isotherm is also south. Looks like it now includes the northern stripe of counties along the VA border at the onset. We are not where we want to be yet and we will probably not end up with a solution like we saw from the 18z two days ago, but we are stepping back toward it. Hey, at least we are going in the right direction. I side with the met office out of Blacksburg. In fact I haven't seen any met discussions from any office indicating that it is a plausible situation. Link me to any disco if I'm wrong though. With all the warm air out ahead of this I don't see it as likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Among all the winter weather chatter I strongly believe there is another issue that needs to be monitored closely S of I-20 and that is a Severe Weather episode. The SPC has included portions of the Deep South in their day 4 Outlook that may well suggest a tornado threat and very strong storms. With folks traveling and busy with other activities, I believe it is important to mention that potential late Christmas night into the 26th. At this time the greatest threat would be from SE TX, Southern Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and Southern Alabama. There will likely be societal impacts with this very dynamic Winter Storm event beyond any snow threat in the cold sector. I would include the Florida Panhandle as well, but great post on a very overlooked feature (at least in the SE forum) of this winter threat. MOB seems to be be pretty concerned with the Severe threat for thier FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 106 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012 VALID 12Z TUE DEC 25 2012 - 12Z SAT DEC 29 2012 ...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST... THE 12Z/21 AND 00Z/22 GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT THREATENS THE NATION FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ICE DAYS 4 AND 5. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN REFORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY EARLY DAY 5. HOW CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THE SNOW AND ICE GET WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE SUPPLY OF DEEP COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE DOMINATED BY COLD, DRY AIR THIS PERIOD. THE WEST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS ENERGY POURS INTO THE REGION ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS ASTRIDE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Cool story bro but I just explained what I was reading from the model. 00z IS further east and the CAD signature IS stronger. The 00z Euro snow map on AccuPro DOES have a swath of snow for points I-40 north in WNC. It's not accurate. Its not further east with the swath of snow and it's almost right on top of the 06z gfs. Don't trust every snow accumulation map you see, especially the gaps between the lowest three points of the scale. For example, the GFS still thinks there is 0.1 inches of snow in Knoxville. Temps are warming and I don't think the CAD if any will play out much. Elevation, yes. CAD, not really. Boone maybe, Hickory, no. I guess you both have elements of truth to what you wrote. Here's the hour 111 snowfall forecast from the 00Z ECMWF last night. There is definitely accumulating snow depicted from points just north of Hickory to just north of the Winston-Salem area. Thus, there's probably flakes flying even a little south of that line, though it wouldn't stick. It's a nice trend, I hope that 12Z will continue to move the low south and east, but I'm not too confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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