valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Is that -20 degrees for western NC by hour 300? Nope. -15F lows for the NC mountains. See the above image. Those -20Cs are upper air temps, and the really cold temps are helped by a good snowpack in the long range. This is far from certain though, however I do see a possible trend: Storm 1 puts a good band of snow over the OH river (I'm almost convinced this is where it'll head). Light snow on the back side, snow in the mountains. Storm 2 puts down snow just south of storm 1 Storm 3 puts down snow just south of storm 2 If things are going to progressively get colder with a similar pattern, then this is likely how things will play out. If this does, then a polar vortex coming out of Canada wouldn't have much time to moderate. Granted, this is a very pie in the sky scenario - but I do think it's somewhat feasible. Unless things change though, I think western TN into KY along the OH river is the sweet spot for this next storm. I really don't think NC outside of the mountains will see accumulating snow, nor will most of east TN valley. Little Rock, AR, through Dyersburg, TN and Sikeston, MO, through the OH river valley is where to look. I'd go with middle Indiana as how far north, and middle TN as how far south the odds are. Chances for NC are very low until you hit the mountains and upslope. Chances for TN get better as you head further west. Consider also that this is a compromise between the solution posed a few days ago by the GFS and the Euro further NW and the outlier OP runs of the GFS that put it very far southeast. Now that the current front has gone through, this is the next main system, so the models will have a better handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 00Z UK is still farther SE. Takes deepening surface low from near Slidell, LA at 00Z Christmas evening to just offshore the Tidewater at 00Z Wed evening, then a few hundred miles E of Cape Cod 00Z Thu evening. I can see that. I would like to see what the 00z Euro has to say and how consistent it is. I'm not a pro met, but I'd give the Euro the heaviest weight right now, then the GFS ensemble members and the GFS op. I'm going by past history of the Euro versus the GFS in this time frame. I'm pretty sure the GFS will probably nail the track of the low 4-5 days out, and given climatology and statistics I'd favor a track west of the apps even through west or middle TN. Do you know of anything that would give the UK good weight in considering its output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 12Z GGEM is out on its own as regards the credible models. The 0Z Ukie is a good bit further NW. The 0Z GFS is way NW. Will the 0Z GGEM stay with its classic Miller A major well inland SE snowstorm type of track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 There is a documented/known bias for the UKMet to have a tendency to be on the southern end of the model envelope. At the same time, it's model verification scores tend to be quite high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Here was the 12z ukie to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 CMC further inland for sure. @ 108 has the low centered over the central AL GA line. 114 looks it's over central/eastern SC then @120 it's over SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 12Z GGEM is out on its own as regards the credible models. The 0Z Ukie is a good bit further NW. The 0Z GFS is way NW. Will the 0Z GGEM stay with its classic Miller A major well inland SE snowstorm type of track? That's an easy one, ill take it. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That's an easy one, ill take it. No. CMC is a hit for western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 CMC is a hit for western NC. wow, looks like kclt could get some winter p-type should this verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Recap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 may as well stay up for the euro LOL good read by frank strait http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/the-next-two-storms/3018006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 wow, looks like kclt could get some winter p-type should this verify. not with that track on the cmc, and with this stale (not cold) air mass out ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 not with that track on the cmc, and with this stale (not cold) air mass out ahead of it ehh, ill worry about temp as we get closer. storm will prob be a apps runner at best, so i'm moving on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ukie and CMC are almost like twins at 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How much longer until the Euro rolls? Looks like the CMC and UKMET want to run a low just inland. I think, as many have stated, it has everything to do with what piece of energy the models are jumping on. Probably won't be sorted out tonight. Dr. No - on deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How much longer until the Euro rolls? Looks like the CMC and UKMET want to run a low just inland. I think, as many have stated, it has everything to do with what piece of energy the models are jumping on. Probably won't be sorted out tonight. Dr. No - on deck. It's out to 24 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I do like the fact that ukmet and Canadian are showing some run to run consistency . . . Can't say that for the gfs. I still think the ukmet and cmc solutions are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How much longer until the Euro rolls? Looks like the CMC and UKMET want to run a low just inland. I think, as many have stated, it has everything to do with what piece of energy the models are jumping on. Probably won't be sorted out tonight. Dr. No - on deck. euro is running now, out to 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 After looking at the CMC run a little more closely it looks like an ice to snow scenario for ETN and WNC, tough to tell with the 12hr intervals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 After looking at the CMC run a little more closely it looks like an ice to snow scenario for ETN and WNC, tough to tell with the 12hr intervals though. It realistically tries to send a piece of energy up the western spine of the Apps. Happens all the time. Models then depict a mix, but basically it is just a cold, cold rain w/ snow on the back side. Ice storms are very rare in the TN Valley. May have to go back 30 years to find the last one. I am always amazed to see a CAD event, because they never happen here due to the geography. Canadian is a realistic possibility, but one of out of many at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 euro is out to 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro looks locked in on this one very close to 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The low is way inland at 96, headed for the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro looks locked in on this one very close to 12z so far. Almost Identical at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Let's see how she looks in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Southside VA still gets a nice storm. Roanoke looks like about 10" of snow or more, so does Boone/Blowing Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Going off 24 hour frames, but looks like it came east to me. Goes from central LA/MS to off Delaware coast. 12z had it NW of Chattanooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Good snow for western NC this run again. I bet the accu-pro map will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Going off 24 hour frames, but looks like it came east to me. Goes from central LA/MS to off Delaware coast. 12z had it NW of Chattanooga. Looks about 200 miles east of 12z...but difficult to tell w/ 24 hr. intervals where it goes. Still, it seems to me a piece of this goes west of the Apps and then jumps to near the coast. Warm nose would keep the TN Valley mostly rain for 80% of the event. Too early to nail this down, yet. Some potential still with this though if you are west of the Apps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks about 200 miles east of 12z...but difficult to tell w/ 24 hr. intervals where it goes. Still, it seems to me a piece of this goes west of the Apps and then jumps to near the coast. Warm nose would keep the TN Valley mostly rain for 80% of the event. Too early to nail this down, yet. Some potential still with this though if you are west of the Apps... go to wundergrounds maps, they are alot more detailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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