MotoWeatherman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 117 snow western NC, Atlanta, GA north, all of TN, Just to clarify this in GA it would at best be token flakes similar to flurries on the far back side of an exiting low pressure system. All the moisture is confined to 850mb and lower which pretty much means partly to mostly cloudy with passing flakes in far N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Don't make it sound like it's anything spectacular. It's just flurries for TN verbatim. NC doesn't get anything really. I guess I should have said "Snow Chance"...I wasn't meaning substantial by any means if that is what we are after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 1) The NOGAPS isn't even worthy of being followed. It is a terrible model and isn't important. That's not just my opinion. That is an opinion shared by many met.'s. It may be as bad as the DGEX. 2) The 12Z Ukie is not idential to the 12Z CMC. The low goes over central GA about 150 miles west of Savannah. That track would easily be too far north/west for snow for the bulk of N GA outside of the mountains (and maybe even the mountains), which is the area I was addressing. 3) So, as far as I'm concerned, you have the 12Z CMC vs. all of the other credible models and with the more credible GFS/Euro runs being quite a bit further NW. So, it is close to a nobrainer which way to bet as of now and it certainly isn't the CMC. I agree on the nogaps, I was just using it as another model weak and east compared to the two that are west of the apps Euro and GFS. The ukie is a miller A. While the track is inland, It is in the miller A camp compared to the miller b camp of the GFS Euro. Verbatim, the ukie would be a good run for the mtns based off that track. Let's see if both of those models hold tonight, or move to a miller B solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 1) The NOGAPS isn't even worthy of being followed. It is a terrible model and isn't important. That's not just my opinion. That is an opinion shared by many met.'s. It may be as bad as the DGEX. 2) The 12Z Ukie is not idential to the 12Z CMC. The low goes over central GA about 150 miles west of Savannah. That track would easily be too far north/west for snow for the bulk of N GA outside of the mountains (and maybe even the mountains), which is the area I was addressing. 3) So, as far as I'm concerned, you have the 12Z CMC vs. all of the other credible models and with the more credible GFS/Euro runs being quite a bit further NW. So, it is close to a nobrainer which way to bet as of now and it certainly isn't the CMC. I'm not saying the CMC is right or wrong, but as I said earlier it was the first model to correctly figure out the stream separation with the February snow event this year. It isn't nearly as bad of a model as it's made out to be. The ECMWF overphases things like crazy, and the GFS is just bad in so many ways it's hard to name them all. Just because the CMC may over-deepen cyclones doesn't make it's flaws any worse than other models IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Don't make it sound like it's anything spectacular. It's just flurries for TN verbatim. NC doesn't get anything really. Well I went out my way to post it was 3 hour increments. Small window of opportunity. I think many would be happy with some flurry action near the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 To me, the 00Z GFS looks pretty similar to its 12Z run, except it trended a little in its surface low and the way its wrapping up toward the 12Z EC. Its surface low positions are now almost identical to the EC, although not as deep. The GFS was not being aggressive enough in wrapping moisture and cold air around the center, and has trended toward the EC in this regard, though still not as much. It is important to recognize there are still substantial differences between the GFS and all the other models with the strength of the lead wave that moves through Monday, with the other models slower and more amplified. The GFS has trended toward that slower/deeper solution every run. It is likely that at least part of the reason the EC is stronger with the Christmas/Wed system is that it has an overall more amplified pattern and stronger baroclinicity in place because of the stronger lead system. If the 00Z EC holds serve with intensity and track, one would guess the GFS will continue to trend toward it - but given that this is a complex pattern that is certainly not a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 To me, the 00Z GFS looks pretty similar to its 12Z run, except it trended a little in its surface low and the way its wrapping up toward the 12Z EC. Its surface low positions are now almost identical to the EC, although not as deep. The GFS was not being aggressive enough in wrapping moisture and cold air around the center, and has trended toward the EC in this regard, though still not as much. It is important to recognize there are still substantial differences between the GFS and all the other models with the strength of the lead wave that moves through Monday, with the other models slower and more amplified. The GFS has trended toward that slower/deeper solution every run. It is likely that at least part of the reason the EC is stronger with the Christmas/Wed system is that it has an overall more amplified pattern and stronger baroclinicity in place because of the stronger lead system. If the 00Z EC holds serve with intensity and track, one would guess the GFS will continue to trend toward it - but given that this is a complex pattern that is certainly not a given. Thanks for posting your thoughts. I agree........I don't believe we have seen the final solution as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 hour 99 through 108 spit out some freezing rain for far north-west NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm not saying the CMC is right or wrong, but as I said earlier it was the first model to correctly figure out the stream separation with the February snow event this year. It isn't nearly as bad of a model as it's made out to be. The ECMWF overphases things like crazy, and the GFS is just bad in so many ways it's hard to name them all. Just because the CMC may over-deepen cyclones doesn't make it's flaws any worse than other models IMO. 1) What % of the time has the GGEM scored a coup? Was that just an exception? 2) Based on my recollection of previous storms, I think that the CMC has a tendency for a bit of a too far south storm track bias on average. I can't prove this, however and don't know if it is documented anywhere. 3) It is genuinely very difficult for me to go with the CMC when the GFS/Euro have been a good bit further NW on run after run. I'm not saying it is nearly impossible,,,that's why I'm saying 5% chance as opposed to, say 1%. I'd certainly want 20:1 odds if I were betting on the CMC here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 there's our sfc low in the gulf at 192 that many here have been watching... EDIT: looks like to pushed offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This run showing a quick shot of frozen precip around 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 1) What % of the time has the GGEM scored a coup? Was that just an exception? 2) Based on my recollection of previous storms, I think that the CMC has a tendency for a bit of a too far south storm track bias on average. I can't prove this, however and don't know if it is documented anywhere. 3) It is genuinely very difficult for me to go with the CMC when the GFS/Euro have been a good bit further NW on run after run. I'm not saying it is nearly impossible,,,that's why I'm saying 5% chance as opposed to, say 1%. I'd certainly want 20:1 odds if I were betting on the CMC here. Actually the CMC has a known bias of cutting storms to quickly actually. Obviously changes could've been made to help that but I'm not sure if changes have been made or not. But I do agree that the GFS/Euro track is more likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 We're not far off from a storm at 192, gfs suppressed it but the temps for nc looked good. another lp coming at 252, temps are cold in the carolinas, slp over southern la. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 snow *chance* hour 252 entire northern tier of South-East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 New Year's Eve quick shot followed by the biggie at 252...holy cow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Here's the gfs throwing us a bone in the lr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm not saying the CMC is right or wrong, but as I said earlier it was the first model to correctly figure out the stream separation with the February snow event this year. It isn't nearly as bad of a model as it's made out to be. The ECMWF overphases things like crazy, and the GFS is just bad in so many ways it's hard to name them all. Just because the CMC may over-deepen cyclones doesn't make it's flaws any worse than other models IMO. Agree, Agree. I think the GFS and Euro are right with this going west of the Apps, but very much agree with the bolded, particularly in the 3-7 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What a ridge at hour 192!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Snow accum for this run of the gfs thru hr 264. looks like we will have 3 threats over the next 2 weeks to watch. doesn't get much better than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Big Dog on Jan 2nd followed by the deep freezer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 for everyone wondering.... Day 5 (120-hour) forecast errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 arctic air flooding in by 288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 For everyone who was complaining 2 weeks ago about "what winter?"...all you have to do is look at Days 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Big Dog on Jan 2nd followed by the deep freezer... What a weenie run! -epo and +pna. The ensembles support this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Big Dog on Jan 2nd followed by the deep freezer... Is that -20 degrees for western NC by hour 300? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The storm on 12/30 will be one to watch, gfs suppressed it this run and temps were marginal but it isn't too far off from something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Here's the gfs throwing us a bone in the lr. It's better for TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Serious cold in the long range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 00Z UK is still farther SE. Takes deepening surface low from near Slidell, LA at 00Z Christmas evening to just offshore the Tidewater at 00Z Wed evening, then a few hundred miles E of Cape Cod 00Z Thu evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 00Z UK is still farther SE. Takes deepening surface low from near Slidell, LA at 00Z Christmas evening to just offshore the Tidewater at 00Z Wed evening, then a few hundred miles E of Cape Cod 00Z Thu evening. You got the panels en between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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