packbacker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 9:48 PM, rduwx said: I agree, it's gonna be tough w/out that HP. 850's are marginal at best and 2m temps look horrible. It's a shame too, as this could have been a sneaky good event for us, oh well maybe next year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Guys, we're still 5/6 days away. If there is strong enough confluence in the right place, and there might be, we may indeed start seeing a high modeled in that region. I wouldn't sweat that just yet. If we're 2/3 days out and not seeing one, then ok. I would not be surprised to see this trend colder. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised to see it turn into an Apps runner either. In any event, I'll take my chances with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 good agreement for a LP in the GOM around hour 120 between the GFS and EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z was awfully close to something frozen for WNC outside of the mountains. If 00z comes in colder than it might be game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z gfs ensemble looks pretty good. Has a low coming from the gulf coast . 850s look a little colder than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 11:46 PM, CaseyWXwatcher said: 18z gfs ensemble looks pretty good. Has a low coming from the gulf coast . 850s look a little colder than the OP If only that meso-low wasn't over Tri-Cities, I would say WNC is in the midst of a winter weather event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 11:52 PM, Marion_NC_WX said: If only that meso-low wasn't over Tri-Cities, I would say WNC is in the midst of a winter weather event. Agreed. The euro ensembles didn't have it there so I'm not too worried about it yet. Interestingly even with that feature there 850s are still colder than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Since its not way out in long range...if it does not trend better within a few days...it will be time to put the nail in the coffin outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 11:58 PM, WilkesboroDude said: Since its not way out in long range...if it does not trend better within a few days...it will be time to put the nail in the coffin outside of the mountains. Well the 18z ensemble is most likely a snow event for the mtns and foothills. 850s are actually cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 11:58 PM, WilkesboroDude said: Since its not way out in long range...if it does not trend better within a few days...it will be time to put the nail in the coffin outside of the mountains. Not to sound rude.......... but I think most of us will know when it's time to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/24/2012 at 2:10 PM, nchighcountrywx said: The NAM is way overdone but it is likely some snow will fall with a risk of ice in NW NC I think that is more than overdone. Something is wrong with the map. NAM snow depth is accounting for ice and cold rain it looks like. It is highlighting the eastern escarpment of the mountains...they are the main areas to watch for ice in CAD situations...not a foot of snow+ while other mountain areas receive nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/25/2012 at 1:20 AM, WilkesboroDude said: I think that is more than overdone. Something is wrong with the map. NAM snow depth is accounting for ice and cold rain it looks like. It is highlighting the eastern escarpment of the mountains...they are the main areas to watch for ice in CAD situations...not a foot of snow+ while other mountain areas receive nothing. Have you seen the 18z? Not overdone anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/25/2012 at 1:07 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Not to sound rude.......... but I think most of us will know when it's time to move on. WOTY nominations is really getting to him. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Everyone should go read Wes's right up on the Dec 29/30th potential, I don't remember the last time he sounded upbeat on an event, of course cold air won't be a problem for the MA it will be for the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/25/2012 at 3:06 AM, packbacker said: Everyone should go read Wes's right up on the Dec 29/30th potential, I don't remember the last time he sounded upbeat on an event, of course cold air won't be a problem for the MA it will be for the piedmont. And where would you find this,do tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/25/2012 at 3:11 AM, rgrimes945 said: And where would you find this,do tell... Here you go... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38498-december-29-30-storm/page__view__findpost__p__1944590 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/25/2012 at 3:12 AM, packbacker said: Here you go... http://www.americanw...ost__p__1944590 Thank you and MERRY CHRISTMAS TO all in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 At 108...0z GFS trending warmer and wet for this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It rained another .70 here this morning and we are easily going to surpass 5 inches for the month if not 6 or more looking at the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/25/2012 at 4:05 AM, Marion_NC_WX said: At 108...0z GFS trending warmer and wet for this upcoming weekend. Not sure why its showing 2 SLP's, which is one reason why it's warmer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/25/2012 at 4:14 AM, packbacker said: Not sure why its showing 2 SLP's, which is one reason why it's warmer.... I talked about this yesterday. The 12z and 18z looked better because it didn't show the 2nd slp but I did notice it on the ensembles. As long as that low is up around KY or WV, we arent' going to be cold enough. Not only are we not going to be cold enough, NC will miss out on a lot of the moisture as the two slp's transfer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Guess what...Day 7 looks interesting. Where have we heard that before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/25/2012 at 4:32 AM, Marion_NC_WX said: Guess what...Day 7 looks interesting. Where have we heard that before? It is a no go for the SE. The dry WNW 500 mb flow keeps the precip. from making it there and then it warms up anyway. Edit: Later, a new piece of energy latches onto the moisture and brings it in, but it never quite meets up with the cold in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/25/2012 at 4:35 AM, GaWx said: It is a no go for the SE. The dry WNW 500 mb flow keeps the precip. from making it there and then it warms up anyway. Yep, nothing to really see on the 0z gfs (or goofus). Time to go play Santa...Merry Christmas SE Crew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ukie has a good track not sure about temps. GGEM has what looks to be some type light wintry precip north of 40 in NC 540 is near that area tough to tell with that map though. That's a big change from that model it had a cutter at 12z I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 wow, euro looks amazing for the 12/30 event...acting like santa on christmas eve leaving a present for everyone when they wake up in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 good to see the models trend colder with every run. not sure how to read the map as to what we should be looking for to get the cold in place? did the euro show a high pressure that the gfs hasnt been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Snow all the way into northern georgia on the euro wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 On 12/25/2012 at 6:30 AM, Southern Snow said: good to see the models trend colder with every run. not sure how to read the map as to what we should be looking for to get the cold in place? did the euro show a high pressure that the gfs hasnt been? Well for one the EURO shows a stronger system and a more optimal track with no Low pressure west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 FWIW-- JB just tweeted This storm should be futher south than Wednesday storm, BUT the 00z Euro looks to far south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.