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Late December Discussion and Christmas um Event


Cold Rain

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Ok, I'll get it done and start the thread....but only because of all the SE luv. :) Gotta be honest about the Christmas threat though. I'm not feeling the big one yet. Here's what we have from today (some random favorites):

0Z GFS 174 hr

post-987-0-44604900-1356058389_thumb.gif

Rain :maprain:

0Z Canadian Eh 168 hr

post-987-0-50260000-1356058468_thumb.gif

Rain :maprain:

0Z Euro 168 hr

post-987-0-65703500-1356058564_thumb.gif

Rain :maprain:

6Z GFS 150 hr

post-987-0-93040000-1356058636_thumb.gif

Rain :maprain:

12Z GFS 156 hr

post-987-0-79158300-1356058690_thumb.gif

Rain :maprain:

12Z Canadian Eh 156 hr

post-987-0-96270300-1356058734_thumb.gif

Rain :maprain:

12Z Euro 144 hr

post-987-0-27217800-1356058787_thumb.gif

Rain :maprain:

And now, everybody's favorite: (drum roll please...drum roll) 18Z GFS 156 hr

post-987-0-64113600-1356058827_thumb.gif

Yay! :snowwindow:

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00z will be a big run...if it comes in similar to 18z (or even further south) the board will be rockin for sure. If it shows a lakes cutter again, well the edge of the cliff will be a busy place. To be honest I'm more excited about the 1/1-1/2 storm, but we'll see. I'll definitely be making a drive up to norther sc or nc if the 18z solution comes to fruition.

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Well, CR, you only have to produce during the length of the thread, and if there is no threat for a week, the thread won't grow...so you're good to go until you feel it :) And remember, you get to keep your stapler, no matter the outcome.

Meanwhile, I reached exactly the 3/4's inch goofy predicted for me today, which is twice in a row it got the day and total right a ways out. And the third one back busted on the low end for me...I gloried in more.. That to me says more about the future than all the fantasy cold and snow in the world. Actual model prediction working out for rain. That's a big deal. . T

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Well, CR, you only have to produce during the length of the thread, and if there is no threat for a week, the thread won't grow...so you're good to go until you feel it :) And remember, you get to keep your stapler, no matter the outcome.

Meanwhile, I reached exactly the 3/4's inch goofy predicted for me today, which is twice in a row it got the day and total right a ways out. And the third one back busted on the low end for me...I gloried in more.. That to me says more about the future than all the fantasy cold and snow in the world. Actual model prediction working out for rain. That's a big deal. . T

Although it is OT, we've been getting the correct (sometimes even more) rain around here based on the GFS forecast 5 days out+. Last Sunday, the model lost it a time or two, but brought it right back accurately.

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I think that's the most likely outcome as well. I'm loving me some January though.

Unfortunately I agree on the 12/27 storm and fortunately I agree on the January. The beginning on January must be looking good because of Widre's quote in the other thread.

I have to say, today's 12z Euro is the first run I've seen in weeks that looks favorable. We may yet have a winter.

Widre, are you feeling ok? I'm just giving you a hard time. :santa:

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Although it is OT, we've been getting the correct (sometimes even more) rain around here based on the GFS forecast 5 days out+. Last Sunday, the model lost it a time or two, but brought it right back accurately.

CAE recorded .88 from the last system and the GFS said approx 1.3-1.5 for days

EDIT: .88 from the 12/13th

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Saw this posted from Wes...

I'm not that surprised the GFS as the off hours for some reason have always had a more suppressed look than the 00Z or 12Z. What's bad is the GFS likes suppressed storms and the euro likes wrapping storms up. That makes knowing which way to go really tough. I still like the low wrapping up quicker than the GFS but it all depends on Bobs block south of hudson bay and the trough that develops in response to it. That feature is what keeps the low south. There are huge differences at 500h between the two camps. I still think an inland track is more likely but I'm certainly not good enough to know for sure which camp is right. At least I'll probalby get an article out of it tomorrow.

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