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Central PA - 2012 wanes


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Anybody have a dartboard?

I'm calling Miss Cleo, she'll know what's up with this. In any event, time to be a little productive and go Christmas shopping. Intentionally, I wait until the "last minute" because I like going shopping to get into the "Christmas spirit" and the only real way you can achieve full-spirit is to beat the everloving shiat out of a few thousand morons in a mall.

Maybe while I'm gone, we can get the Blizzard of 96 or somethin. Or something that doesn't just end in rain?

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I wish I could go back to the late 1970's when I was a teen-ager and I would listen to the forecast on the radio and then I would look out the window all day and see if the storm would start as rain, sleet or snow. I remember being out with my friends in the slop and then the excitement when it changed to snow at any time. I am sure it was more fun not knowing what a model was.

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GFS at least has a transfer this run, so it comes down to the the timing. If the Euro still shows something similar to last night I will actually feel confident in a more snowy outcome.

<weenie>

We are getting into the Euro's wheelhouse as they say, but they also say its only wrong when it shows snow for your back yard. lol

</weenie>

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GFS is a little better than last night, looks like a late bloomer secondary wise. Probably underestimating CAD some but still drives a pretty strong low into the Ohio Valley. Would likely be a snow to mix/rain and perhaps back to snow type deal. Hopefully Euro holds out.

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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO WET-BULB TEMPS AT 925 AND 850 MB WILL DRIFT AS

FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 80 AS THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT.

THE WARMER CLOUD TEMPS...LIGHTER PRECIP RATES... AND TEMPS EDGING

BACK BELOW THE FREEZING MARK WILL BRING AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING

DRIZZLE...AND SOME SLICK LANDING CONDITIONS FOR SANTA`S SLEIGH EARLY

ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF ONLY 24-30

HOURS FROM LATER CHRISTMAS MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE

SIGNIFICANT STORM HEADS OUR WAY FROM THE MISS VALLEY.

OPERATIONAL U.S. AND EURO MODEL RUNS /AND THEIR RESPECTIVE

ENSEMBLES/ WAVERED TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PROJECTED STORM TRACK

ON THEIR 22/12Z AND 18Z RUNS...BUT HAVE TRENDED BACK TOWARD TO THE

EAST AGAIN WITH THE MEAN SFC LOW TRACK AND LIKELIHOOD OF A MILLER-B

TYPE EVENT AS A WEAKENING OHIO VALLEY LOW EXPERIENCES A TRANSFER OF

ENERGY TO THE DELMARVA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NOSE OF A STRONG

UPPER LEVEL JET /ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING AND SLIGHTLY

NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH/ AIMS AT THE VA/MID ATLANTIC COAST.

INTRODUCED SOME LAYER-CAKE PRECIP TYPES /FROM NW TO SE/ FOR THE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT PERIOD AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A

RATHER NARROW LAYER OF NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING AIR TO SURGE NWD INTO

AT LEAST CENTRAL AND SRN PENN AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER

ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE

INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW COULD KEEP THE PRECIP MAINLY SNOW

ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF KAOO...KUNV AND KBGM FOR THE BULK OF THE

STORM.

A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND

WESTERN MTNS...WHILE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOW/SLEET IMPACT THE SUSQ

VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SCENT MTNS.

AS A RESULT OF THE PLUS 3-4 SIGMA SERLY 850 MB JET AND 1-2 SIGMA

PWATS ACCOMPANYING THIS STORM...LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF FOR THIS EVENT

LOOKS TO BE IN THE 0.75-1.00 RANGE ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES...AND

1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY

/ABOUT 20 PERCENT/ FOR STORM TOTAL PRECIP OF 2 INCHES IN OUR FAR

SERN ZONES.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE IN THE 6-9 INCH RANGE

ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...SEVERAL INCHES THROUGHOUT THE

CENTRAL ZONES...AND ANYWHERE FROM 1-6 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND

SWRN POCONOS .

COLD AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS BEHIND THE

DEPARTING STORM THU AND FRI WITH CENTRAL AND SERN PENN FLURRIES AND

SCTD SNOW SHOWERS...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW AND LES IMPACTING THE LAURELS

AND NW MTNS.

ANOTHER WEAKER STORM PROGGED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

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12Z run def looks a little better for a snowier solution. I think at best what will happen is something along these lines. Strong HP to the north gets the CAD rolling early and starts thing off as snow/mix even if the main LP doesn't spawn a secondary near the coast. EVEN if the primary LP doesn't produce a secondary, I think this storm is going to cause a lot of problems in the icing department. Whether that means a more prominant sleet storm vs ZR is way to early to be determined however. My guess right now if I had to make a forecast would be something very similar to what is progged on the 12Z run this afternoon with the GFS. I still think this storm tries to cut a little bit towards the Ohio Valley, BUT I do believe that with stronger blocking this go around, it should cause an earlier transfer of energy a little earlier than most cutters. I'm thinking snow totals at current thinking will range from 4-8" with the totals being held down by the influx of WAA at the height of the storm. Depending on how quick the transfer happens, I could see totals being 6-12" if the transfer happens quicker. I feel alot more confident in the north central mnts acheiving this forecast than other areas in PA. I will have a map out explaining more later :) haha bored at work.

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Looks like a nailbiter for here like the Canadian.

Yea UNV just barely stays below zero at 850. Total QPF for central looks about the same.. a litte over an inch. QPF more towards 1.5" or so in the east. Altoona, Williamsport, and Scranton/WB see a good snowfall before what looks like a significant mix. MDT a little snow before alot of rain most likely and mostly rain for York/Lancaster. 2001kx looks like the C-PA winner this run, with KFIG looking to stay all snow without too much drama.

The Pittsburgh gang does pretty well, with PIT seeing 0.73" before 850s top out right at 0... and then getting a few more tenths after they start dropping. Basically looks like mainly snow, perhaps a brief period of mixing and then back to snow there.

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Yea UNV just barely stays below zero at 850. Total QPF for central looks about the same.. a litte over an inch. QPF more towards 1.5" or so in the east. Altoona, Williamsport, and Scranton/WB see a good snowfall before what looks like a significant mix. MDT a little snow before alot of rain most likely and mostly rain for York/Lancaster. 2001kx looks like the C-PA winner this run, with KFIG looking to stay all snow without too much drama.

The Pittsburgh gang does pretty well, with PIT seeing 0.73" before 850s top out right at 0... and then getting a few more tenths after they start dropping. Basically looks like mainly snow, perhaps a brief period of mixing and then back to snow there.

Thanks. THe thing that I have noticed is that the 850 line is always under modeled in our area as to how far north it pushes. I remember plenty of times that all models were showing no change over, or a short changeover, and then KPIT saw hours of sleet and freezing rain.

If the 0 line is right on us, I would expect some extended icing.

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Yea UNV just barely stays below zero at 850. Total QPF for central looks about the same.. a litte over an inch. QPF more towards 1.5" or so in the east. Altoona, Williamsport, and Scranton/WB see a good snowfall before what looks like a significant mix. MDT a little snow before alot of rain most likely and mostly rain for York/Lancaster. 2001kx looks like the C-PA winner this run, with KFIG looking to stay all snow without too much drama.

The Pittsburgh gang does pretty well, with PIT seeing 0.73" before 850s top out right at 0... and then getting a few more tenths after they start dropping. Basically looks like mainly snow, perhaps a brief period of mixing and then back to snow there.

well then we know that solution is wrong :P

thanks for the info..

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So you would say 8-12 for KPIT, verbatim I am guessing?

Yea somethin like that. I should see the full Euro here in a few minutes. On your other point about the 850 line, yea I would be a bit leery with the setup. Those Ohio Valley lows do like to find a way to get mixing or even rain up into Pittsburgh if you don't have an early enough transfer to a secondary.

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