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Central PA - 2012 wanes


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"A measurement of how much wind has passed a given point in a period of time. A wind blowing at three miles per hour for an entire hour would give a wind run of three miles.

Cumulus calculates wind run by noting the average wind speed every minute, and adding in a minute's worth of 'distance' corresponding to that speed. So the wind run for a particular period is effectively an indication of the average wind speed over that period. A wind run of 240 miles over the course of a day, for example, means that the average wind speed over the day was 10 mph."

It basically allows one to measure how windy a given period is, at least, that's what I use it for. You can divide wind run by the measurement period and determine average wind speed, including gusts, for said period:

Today (so far): 105 miles/ 13.5 hours = 7.8 mph

10/29/2012 (Period which registered Sandy's lowest pressure): 97.4 miles/24 hours = 4.05 mph

Mets might have another use, or might not use it at all. I had never heard of it until I started using Cumulus software for my PWS.

thanks for the explanation...I never heard that before.

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Plenty of time

Yeah one run we will be high fives. Next run jumping ship and then don't forget the we need a wiggle east or west. :axe:

Jamie do you have a link for the euro totals you would care to share. I don't have many bookmarks for the Euro. Thanks

Just what I said the other night. Still plenty of time.

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Euro is all snow for JST, AOO, UNV, IPT, AVP and about 1.1-1.2" QPF. MDT looks like some snow to mix/rain. York/Lancaster looks like a little snow over to rain. Just judging from text data for now till i see maps at 2am. Essentially back to where we were impact wise last night except maybe a bit warmer in York/Lancaster.

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The Euro gets the secondary rolling better than the GFS, already having reflection on the other side of the Apps in NC while primary is only up to eastern KY. The GFS actually doesn't really have a secondary with its solution, instead taking the low up west and eventually floating northeast right over the middle of PA, hence the eventual torch and rain. Typically this setup likes to fire up a secondary low, GFS and Euro do both have 1030 or so highs to our north. My opinion several days ago was that this system was going to try to cut, but eventually form a secondary and create a mess for central PA. By a mess i meant a long duration, snow to ice/sleet to rain type deal for a lot of people. I was actually rather surprised models obliged even further and have had all snow solutions for a good part of the area the last couple days up until Saturday's runs. If we can force the secondary to pop early enough, we'll be good to go. Even if the primary hangs on longer, I believe a much icier scenario would be in the cards instead of any easy change to rain. The Lower Sus Valley is probably not going to get away from mixing issues either way, as the NAO (now forecast to swing positive for this storm) probably means any secondary low is going to be in real close (most likely a coastal plain runner). We'll see.

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This pattern is so dynamic that I don't think the models will nail anything down with certainty before 24 hours. We have had some extreme flip flops lately that have caused everyone to jump off the cliff. I still think significant winter weather is possible here and we can still end up with a decent plowable snow albeit with ptype issues. With the Euro coming east the question is will the GFS follow and will there be another minor or dramatic shift? Who knows, but it will be interesting to follow.

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Yesterday's wind run ended up at 189 miles, which worked out to an average of 7.8 mph. One of the windier days on record here.

Not too concerned about the upcoming weather events, either it happens or it doesn't. Nothing gained, nothing lost and there isn't anything anyone can do about it anyway. I don't understand the extreme emotions present at times, especially when considering that meteorology is a scientific field. Oh well, to each his own :huh:

Edit: MAG, thanks for continuing to provide detailed discussion, I enjoy reading your posts quite a bit.

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The Euro gets the secondary rolling better than the GFS, already having reflection on the other side of the Apps in NC while primary is only up to eastern KY. The GFS actually doesn't really have a secondary with its solution, instead taking the low up west and eventually floating northeast right over the middle of PA, hence the eventual torch and rain. Typically this setup likes to fire up a secondary low, GFS and Euro do both have 1030 or so highs to our north. My opinion several days ago was that this system was going to try to cut, but eventually form a secondary and create a mess for central PA. By a mess i meant a long duration, snow to ice/sleet to rain type deal for a lot of people. I was actually rather surprised models obliged even further and have had all snow solutions for a good part of the area the last couple days up until Saturday's runs. If we can force the secondary to pop early enough, we'll be good to go. Even if the primary hangs on longer, I believe a much icier scenario would be in the cards instead of any easy change to rain. The Lower Sus Valley is probably not going to get away from mixing issues either way, as the NAO (now forecast to swing positive for this storm) probably means any secondary low is going to be in real close (most likely a coastal plain runner). We'll see.

FWIW the NAM has a primary only going up to our west but then again it's the NAM in lol range.

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FWIW the NAM has a primary only going up to our west but then again it's the NAM in lol range.

Yea the NAM/SREF's first looks at this event haven't been pretty, thats for sure. We need the Euro's quicker transfer over the mountains. Still think a solution similar to the 0z Euro seems the most viable given 1030-1032mb high up north. I mean NAM has the single primary rolling up into a 1032 high.. would have to think there'd be at least more reflection to the coast.

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