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Central PA - 2012 wanes


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btw, just moved to northern Lancaster County from Pittston while kind of in between jobs at the moment. Good to be back into an area where we get exciting weather. The Wyoming Valley sucked...at snow and severe storms. (besides a huge flood)...

so a big shout out to all my new neighbors in Lancaster, Lebanon and Berks Counties. Had some on and off flurries today from Hershey to Ephrata.

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btw, just moved to northern Lancaster County from Pittston while kind of in between jobs at the moment. Good to be back into an area where we get exciting weather. The Wyoming Valley sucked...at snow and severe storms. (besides a huge flood)...

so a big shout out to all my new neighbors in Lancaster, Lebanon and Berks Counties. Had some on and off flurries today from Hershey to Ephrata.

Welcome, where exactly are you in Lancaster? Here in Leola and work at Shady Maple, hopefully you've heard of us :)

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nothing permanent yet, working in ephrata and temporary living in Hershey with relatives. This is temporary though. But I need some good snows because we've been robbed in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre region over the last few winters.

Im in Harrisburg. Welcome back!

You kinda moved to the wrong place to not get screwed though, all of CPA gets shafted at times. :)

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Radar lookin good around Johnstown, Easterns probably in his glory up there. Starting to see more discrete snow bands setting up off the lakes. Boy did it get windy tonight..certainly haven't heard the wind roar like that since Sandy. Travel looks very rough over the Alleghenies tonight.

Down here the half inch to inch of snow/sleet/slush from last nights early frozen survived the rain phase and has now froze solid and we've had maybe about the same amount (rough guess) from the LES today. Nice to see the ground white again.

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Central PA can be a sweet spot for these storms, but it's so delicate finding the balance of the high qpf and temps as the primary transfers to coastal. SC PA being even more suceptible to the changeover as that run shows...

wind is ripping here on the hills in E York. This might be weird, but I can hear some jets tonight, and it makes me think- I am not jealous of the passengers trying to land/takeoff at MDT tonight.

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Another big Euro run, pretty decent agreement with GFS. Harrisburg, York and Lancaster see some mixing after decent front end. JST/AOO/UNV/IPT corridor hammered. General .2-.3" for most of C-Pa for the preceding early Xmas morning wave.

I know it doesnt really matter at this point but im curious on how it looks back my way on the euro?

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Love the last line of the latest CTP long range disco this morning!

THE RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OCCURRING SUNDAY INTO

MONDAY...WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TOUGH HEADING

NE FROM THE LOWER MISS...AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

ANY FLEETING MORNING SUNSHINE MONDAY...WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A

SHIELD OF THICKENING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

22/00Z AND 03Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE MERGING INTO

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIME AND TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE AND

ASSOCIATED 1008MB MEAN SFC LOW. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH WVA OR

THE BLUE RIDGE REGION OF THE APPALACHIANS CHRISTMAS EVE /21-00Z TUE/

THEN SCOOT NE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND OR ALONG THE COAST CHRISTMAS

DAY. LLVL WET BULB PROFILE /AND THIS STORM TRACK/ FAVORS MAINLY SNOW

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS ATLEAST CENTRAL

AND NRN PENN...BRINGING INCREASINGLY HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WHITE

CHRISTMAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.

RIGHT NOW...QPF CONSENSUS FAVORS A WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWFALL OF 2

TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT AT THIS POINT APPEARING TO BE

ACROSS THE FAR LOWER SUSQ REGION...WHERE SOME MIXED PRECIP IS

POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF ONLY 24-30

HOURS FROM LATER CHRISTMAS MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE

SIGNIFICANT STORM STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS OUR WAY FROM THE LOWER

MISS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY AND PERHAPS EVEN A

CLASSIC NEGATIVE TILT...DEEP TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FROM THE MIDWEST TO

SERN US LATER WED INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NOSE OF A POTENT 120+ KT

UPPER JET MAX ROUNDING/HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE BASE OF THE

TROUGH...AND GREATLY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER UVVEL/UPPER DIVERGENCE

ACROSS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS NEWD THROUGH THE NERN

US. ANY INITIAL TENN VALLEY SFC LOW WILL LIKELY QUICKLY JUMP THE

SMOKEY MTNS...AND REFORM/INTENSIFY ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID ATL COAST

WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES

NE.

EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW PLACING IS NOTED BY THE 22/00Z

GEFS...00Z AND 06Z GFS...AND THE 00Z EC MODEL. THE 22/00Z CANADIAN

IS JUST A SLIGHT SOUTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE SFC LOW

ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS...BEFORE LIFTING THE INTENSIFYING

/APPROX 990MB/ SFC LOW RIGHT ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE WED

NIGHT /CLOSE TO TRACK OF THE EC AND GFS/.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD/HEAVY SNOWFALL

ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING AN 18-24 HOUR

PERIOD WED INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL

IMPLICATIONS.

COLD AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS BEHIND THE

DEPARTING STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CENTRAL AND SERN PENN

FLURRIES AND SCTD SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW

AND LES IMPACTING THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS.

AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN AND ITS

EMBEDDED STORMS...I CAN CLEARLY HEAR GOOD OLE BING SINGING HIS

FAMOUS...1941 CHRISTMAS BEST SELLER A BIT MORE CLEARLY EARLY THIS

MORNING.

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Based off the overall pattern setting up, the forecast jet structure, and growing numerical model consensus, I believe the day after christmas is going to be quite white for central PA. One thing that I will note, and stress for Lancaster, York, Lebanon and Dauphin counties are the ocean temps near the Jersey and Delaware coast. You want them to get cold fast, as that would preclude the opportunity for warm air to change precip type and surface temps during the coastal transfer. Also watch out for timing of the transfer and overall speed of the dec 26 event.

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