Scummyratguy Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You guys are right,just have to wait and see. Still early for sure. Your enthusiasm is appreciated here, just trying to stay level headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Update: It's cold as balls out with the wind. We're going up to NYC tomorrow, I hope I remember my gloves and hat. Jeepets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Plenty of time Yeah one run we will be high fives. Next run jumping ship and then don't forget the we need a wiggle east or west. Jamie do you have a link for the euro totals you would care to share. I don't have many bookmarks for the Euro. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 btw, just moved to northern Lancaster County from Pittston while kind of in between jobs at the moment. Good to be back into an area where we get exciting weather. The Wyoming Valley sucked...at snow and severe storms. (besides a huge flood)... so a big shout out to all my new neighbors in Lancaster, Lebanon and Berks Counties. Had some on and off flurries today from Hershey to Ephrata. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 btw, just moved to northern Lancaster County from Pittston while kind of in between jobs at the moment. Good to be back into an area where we get exciting weather. The Wyoming Valley sucked...at snow and severe storms. (besides a huge flood)... so a big shout out to all my new neighbors in Lancaster, Lebanon and Berks Counties. Had some on and off flurries today from Hershey to Ephrata. Welcome, where exactly are you in Lancaster? Here in Leola and work at Shady Maple, hopefully you've heard of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 nothing permanent yet, working in ephrata and temporary living in Hershey with relatives. This is temporary though. But I need some good snows because we've been robbed in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre region over the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 nothing permanent yet, working in ephrata and temporary living in Hershey with relatives. This is temporary though. But I need some good snows because we've been robbed in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre region over the last few winters. Im in Harrisburg. Welcome back! You kinda moved to the wrong place to not get screwed though, all of CPA gets shafted at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Radar lookin good around Johnstown, Easterns probably in his glory up there. Starting to see more discrete snow bands setting up off the lakes. Boy did it get windy tonight..certainly haven't heard the wind roar like that since Sandy. Travel looks very rough over the Alleghenies tonight. Down here the half inch to inch of snow/sleet/slush from last nights early frozen survived the rain phase and has now froze solid and we've had maybe about the same amount (rough guess) from the LES today. Nice to see the ground white again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just checking out the 18z GFS now....yes plz! Totals through the 29th assuming 10:1 ratio. KRDG: 15" KABE: 14" KMDT: 12" KPHL: 11" KJST: 12" KAOO: 9" KAVP: 8" KERI: 6" KBFD: 5" KDUJ: 5" KPIT: 5" KUNV: 5" KIPT: 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Additionally, flurries to the point of borderline light snow right now here in lancaster. Big ones, at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Posted for relevance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Central PA can be a sweet spot for these storms, but it's so delicate finding the balance of the high qpf and temps as the primary transfers to coastal. SC PA being even more suceptible to the changeover as that run shows... wind is ripping here on the hills in E York. This might be weird, but I can hear some jets tonight, and it makes me think- I am not jealous of the passengers trying to land/takeoff at MDT tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Anyone see ggem and ukmet. I am drooling over here. That and it's like a blizzard out right now. 5" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Another big Euro run, pretty decent agreement with GFS. Harrisburg, York and Lancaster see some mixing after decent front end. JST/AOO/UNV/IPT corridor hammered. General .2-.3" for most of C-Pa for the preceding early Xmas morning wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Another big Euro run, pretty decent agreement with GFS. Harrisburg, York and Lancaster see some mixing after decent front end. JST/AOO/UNV/IPT corridor hammered. General .2-.3" for most of C-Pa for the preceding early Xmas morning wave. I know it doesnt really matter at this point but im curious on how it looks back my way on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I know it doesnt really matter at this point but im curious on how it looks back my way on the euro? 0.28" with the X-mas eve/Xmas morning wave and 1.13" for the big storm at FIG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0.28" with the X-mas eve/Xmas morning wave and 1.13" for the big storm at FIG. thanks mike....lock that in for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 thanks mike....lock that in for us I'm excited. After last year i'm ready to get the snowboard back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That ice zone needs to move its ass about 50 miles south and things would be beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 One word to describe the maps NICE!! Cold and windy this morning...slight dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Give it 24 more hours before getting too excited, but it looks like the Dec 26 event could be the first significant event for PA and Mason-Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 CTP already 70% snow likely. That's the highest I've ever seen for so far out. Also no clue how much snow we ended with here. Some spots are bare and others have like a two foot pile lol. The winds are crazy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Time to get excited will be 0z tmrw night. Have that feeling of doubt still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Love the last line of the latest CTP long range disco this morning! THE RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OCCURRING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING UPPER TOUGH HEADING NE FROM THE LOWER MISS...AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. ANY FLEETING MORNING SUNSHINE MONDAY...WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SHIELD OF THICKENING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 22/00Z AND 03Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE MERGING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIME AND TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1008MB MEAN SFC LOW. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH WVA OR THE BLUE RIDGE REGION OF THE APPALACHIANS CHRISTMAS EVE /21-00Z TUE/ THEN SCOOT NE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND OR ALONG THE COAST CHRISTMAS DAY. LLVL WET BULB PROFILE /AND THIS STORM TRACK/ FAVORS MAINLY SNOW FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS ATLEAST CENTRAL AND NRN PENN...BRINGING INCREASINGLY HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. RIGHT NOW...QPF CONSENSUS FAVORS A WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT AT THIS POINT APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE FAR LOWER SUSQ REGION...WHERE SOME MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF ONLY 24-30 HOURS FROM LATER CHRISTMAS MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS OUR WAY FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY AND PERHAPS EVEN A CLASSIC NEGATIVE TILT...DEEP TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FROM THE MIDWEST TO SERN US LATER WED INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NOSE OF A POTENT 120+ KT UPPER JET MAX ROUNDING/HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND GREATLY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER UVVEL/UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS NEWD THROUGH THE NERN US. ANY INITIAL TENN VALLEY SFC LOW WILL LIKELY QUICKLY JUMP THE SMOKEY MTNS...AND REFORM/INTENSIFY ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID ATL COAST WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES NE. EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW PLACING IS NOTED BY THE 22/00Z GEFS...00Z AND 06Z GFS...AND THE 00Z EC MODEL. THE 22/00Z CANADIAN IS JUST A SLIGHT SOUTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS...BEFORE LIFTING THE INTENSIFYING /APPROX 990MB/ SFC LOW RIGHT ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE WED NIGHT /CLOSE TO TRACK OF THE EC AND GFS/. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD/HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD WED INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS. COLD AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CENTRAL AND SERN PENN FLURRIES AND SCTD SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW AND LES IMPACTING THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN AND ITS EMBEDDED STORMS...I CAN CLEARLY HEAR GOOD OLE BING SINGING HIS FAMOUS...1941 CHRISTMAS BEST SELLER A BIT MORE CLEARLY EARLY THIS MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 CTP already 70% snow likely. That's the highest I've ever seen for so far out. Also no clue how much snow we ended with here. Some spots are bare and others have like a two foot pile lol. The winds are crazy here. All around, it was a meh snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Based off the overall pattern setting up, the forecast jet structure, and growing numerical model consensus, I believe the day after christmas is going to be quite white for central PA. One thing that I will note, and stress for Lancaster, York, Lebanon and Dauphin counties are the ocean temps near the Jersey and Delaware coast. You want them to get cold fast, as that would preclude the opportunity for warm air to change precip type and surface temps during the coastal transfer. Also watch out for timing of the transfer and overall speed of the dec 26 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 All around, it was a meh snow here. It was? Pretty awesome to me. I'd say I no wind probably 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Time to get excited will be 0z tmrw night. Have that feeling of doubt still. What else is new. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It was? Pretty awesome to me. I'd say I no wind probably 5-6". After living here for 14 yrs, this was a dusting...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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