Central PA - 2012 wanes

[jm1220]

Ugh. I'm getting the feeling the next one is going to pull the "slam I-95, sharp cutoff the interior" crap again. If that's the case...FML.

Hopefully not, there should be a WAA push with initial snow that gets well inland, and then the heavy banding begins for the coast, or it could still be a minor event for just about everybody if the phase misses. Still a lot on the table.

[Voyager]

Ugh. I'm getting the feeling the next one is going to pull the "slam I-95, sharp cutoff the interior" crap again. If that's the case...FML.

LOL...wouldn't surprise me one bit. The middle to northern I-81 corridor has suffered terribly the past few winters.

[djr5001]

just happened to see this when looking at current obs around the area to see what gusts are up to... oops lol...

SPECI KEKN 271424Z AUTO 300143G148KT 3SM -SN BR SQ OVC012 M03/M06 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 310148/1424 UPE21FZRAB21E23SNB23 P0000 TSNO $

143 knots = 165 mph!

[sauss06]

just happened to see this when looking at current obs around the area to see what gusts are up to... oops lol...

SPECI KEKN 271424Z AUTO 300143G148KT 3SM -SN BR SQ OVC012 M03/M06 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 310148/1424 UPE21FZRAB21E23SNB23 P0000 TSNO $

143 knots = 165 mph!

Ha, i knew it was rather windy yesterday, but not that windy..

[JamieOber]

Any post storm pics? Looks like Saturday storm is all snow.

The biggest mistake tech purchase wise I have ever made is buying a Droid 2. Confirming this was my trip out to the yard to take pics in snow....everytime I turn on the camera, it crashes. iPhone here I come.

Here's the Cocorahs totals for Centre, I ended with 7.8: http://cocorahs.org/Maps/GetMap.aspx?state=PA&county=CN&type=snow&date=12/27/2012&cp=0

[sauss06]

From Tombo in the philly thread for the weekend

NAM QPF

abe .16

ptw .23

phl .23

pne .2

dyl .2

lns .26

lom .24

nxx .21

thv .26

mdt .23

mpo .19

ukt .21

acy .15

miv .2

dov .21

smq .17

[sauss06]

looks like the gfs has mdt at .27

Edit- we were talking about the winds from yesterday. It looks like the highest gust recorded at mdt was 22 for the 26th.

I know thats where my "official" totals come from, but boy they really don't represent my area well.

[canderson]

For this Saturday storm to not give us a few inches, it's going to have to do some major maneuvering at this point.

[sauss06]

For this Saturday storm to not give us a few inches, it's going to have to do some major maneuvering at this point.

not an expert, but it looks like we stay below freezing until maybe the end? and starts late morning!

[JamieOber]

After this storm, we are at 11.2 for the year, 10.2 for December. That's +1.0 for the year and +2.5 for the month.

I don't why I find that so hilarious, I just do.

[djr5001]

From Tombo in the philly thread for the weekend

NAM QPF -- GFS QPF

abe .19 -- .29

ptw .23 -- .33

phl .22 -- .32

pne .20 -- .32

dyl .20 -- .34

lns .25 -- .37

lom .22 -- .34

nxx .21 -- .34

thv .28 -- .38

mdt .26 -- .36

mpo .17 -- .25

ukt .21 -- .31

acy .16 -- .23

miv .19 -- .22

dov .21 -- .20

smq .16 -- .33

unv .26 -- .21

ipt .24 -- .23

aoo .27 -- .23

jst .33 -- .25

i added above what I have for those sites plus a few others

[WmsptWx]

Is that the highest snow total you've had in about 5 years, Jamie?

[canderson]

After this storm, we are at 11.2 for the year, 10.2 for December. That's +1.0 for the year and +2.5 for the month.

I don't why I find that so hilarious, I just do.

Ha! What was your total all of 2011-12? Wasn't it like 14"?

MDT says they had 2.2" yesterday giving us 3.9" for December and 5" for the year.

[sauss06]

Ha! What was your total all of 2011-12? Wasn't it like 14"?

MDT says they had 2.2" yesterday giving us 3.9" for December and 5" for the year.

for 2012-13 I have recorded 6.5"

11-27 1", 12-24 2", 12-26 2.5" and this am 1"

2011-12 total was 13.25"

[djr5001]

12z GFS continues to show some cold air moving into the region the middle to late next week... projected lows in the single digits for a number of locations according to the text output... 850mb temps plunge to about -18 to -20C

[pawatch]

I'm late reporting....just spent the morning cleaning snow.

I woke up this morning and measured 7.5 and 8.0 so I picked up 1.5 to 2" of snow over night.

By far the most snow I have had in 3 years. :santa:

Nap time

[Laurel Highlands Wx]

Just did a final measurement and the total was 7.75". I missed my initial guess by just a fraction. (Which was 8 btw) All in all a nice event.

[JamieOber]

Is that the highest snow total you've had in about 5 years, Jamie?

No, we got 7.8 from the Feb 20-21 2011 storm, 10.2 from the March 6, 2011 storm, 9.2 from the 2/9-10/10 storm, 15.6 from the 2/5-6/2010 storm, 7.4 from 12/8-9/2009, and there's a couple more in there. It's definitely up there, though.

We actually had two 6 inch storms last year but they were MAG and I specials, total dumb freaking luck with a heavy band sitting over us. Remember those, MAG?

The March 6 2011 is one of my favorites. Forecast was 1-3, we were in an area that might have been like three counties wide that got slammed with 9-11". Insanely heavy snow for about 4-5 hours.

[JamieOber]

Ha! What was your total all of 2011-12? Wasn't it like 14"?

MDT says they had 2.2" yesterday giving us 3.9" for December and 5" for the year.

Mine was around 25 or so (not being home to measure small snowfalls throws it off, damn job), State College was 19. It convinced me that it's nearly impossible to get much below 20 here even in a horrible winter. However take out the October storm from last year and you got your 14" - to me October snow almost disassociates itself from the rest of the winter. I bet others feel the same.

In any event, we already have over half of last year's totals. Let's get everyone else caught up now

[Eskimo Joe]

Mine was around 25 or so (not being home to measure small snowfalls throws it off, damn job), State College was 19. It convinced me that it's nearly impossible to get much below 20 here even in a horrible winter. However take out the October storm from last year and you got your 14" - to me October snow almost disassociates itself from the rest of the winter. I bet others feel the same.

In any event, we already have over half of last year's totals. Let's get everyone else caught up now

I'd be happy with a string of "average" winters in the temp and precip. department.

[pawatch]

I would like to thank everybody who wished us Central PA guys good luck!! I would say our drought is over.

Anybody who got shortchanged on this storm, hope you do well with this next storm!!

[dj88]

Funny how these storms work out.. I am lucky if I got an inch in Elysburg before we went to sleet. My Dad who is 10 miles away in Danville got around 5 inches. But the good part was we got in on the Christmas Eve snow so we had a White Christmas!!!!

[canderson]

12z Euro around the same as the 12z GFS for Saturday. 2-6" throughout I believe.

It kills all storms for next week though and brings in true arctic air. Looks like north-central PA gets below 0 a few days.

[north pgh]

Finished with 11 inches here in Wellsville NY just North of Potter's old home.

I was surprised that there wasn't much wind. I was out for a walk last night and it was a beautiful steady snow.

Glad most of Central Pa did well with this storm.

Let's hope it continues into January!

[Festus]

Congrats to most! Down here in Lancaster County I had maybe an inch before a quick changeover to sleet followed by plain rain. I'm seeing 1/2 to 2/3 grassy areas with nothing right now. Weekend looking much better down this way.

[canderson]

CTP's afternoon writeup is a good read (they've IMO really been on a great run the past month or so - yet again they deserve kudos given the vast terrain differences they forecast for).

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ALL MDL SOLNS SHOW A SIG WAVE ROLLING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND

EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SATURDAY. THE FLOW

REMAINS PRETTY FLAT...SO IT WILL BE MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY.

IT IS ALMOST LIKE A CLIPPER IN SPEED...BUT DEFINITELY OUT OF THE

SRN STREAM - WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO MOISTURE FLOW FROM

THE SOUTH. NO EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AS IT PASSES OUR LATITUDE.

QPF LOOKS TO BE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES WITH THE HIGH AMOUNTS IN THE SRN

TIER/SE. BUT THE S:W RATIOS WILL BE DIFFERENT FROM N-S ACROSS THE

CENTRAL PA. 12:1 COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT THEY COULD BE AS

MUCH AS 18:1 IN THE NORTH. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A VERY HOMOGENEOUS

SNOWFALL OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS

STILL A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE TO OUR

WEST WITH A GREAT QUESTION OF TIMING OF ANY WAVES RUNNING ALONG

THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. BUT...THE MAJOR MDLS ARE IN SUCH FINE

AGREEMENT THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS TO

CATG...AND MENTION MODERATE ACCUMS.

AFTER THAT...THE FLOW IS MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY

INCREASINGLY COLD. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS BLAST US FROM THE NW...AND A

SRN STREAM SYSTEM RUNS IN FROM THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION THAT THE

SATURDAY THINGS DOES - AND RIGHT ON NEW YEAR/S EVE. A TOUGH TIME

FOR SURE TO HAVE SOMETHING MESS UP THE ROADS...BUT TIMING AND PATH

ARE STILL SLIGHTLY UNCERTAINTY. HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY OVER THE

WEST AND MAXED AT CHC LEVELS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW WELL

THE MODELS CAN PICK UP ON/RESOLVE AND DEVELOP THESE FAST SHORT-

WAVES THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE. OTHERWISE CHC POPS RULE THE NW AND

NIL TO SLIGHT CHCS MENTIONED IN THE SE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.

AT THE END OF THE PERIOD/DAY7/THURS...SOME MIGHTY COLD/ARCTIC AIR

DOES MAKE A RUN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS MIGHT KEEP US

IN THE TEENS AND L20S FOR MAXES LATE NEXT WEEK.

[pawatch]

CTP's afternoon writeup is a good read (they've IMO really been on a great run the past month or so - yet again they deserve kudos given the vast terrain differences they forecast for).

Think they really done a good job with this last storm! It was a tough storm, and they seemed on top of it.

[WmsptWx]

We're waaaaaaaay overdue for a cold outbreak. It seems like we're busting slumps here lately, may as well bust another one.

I was thinking about this storm yesterday while watching it snow and it seems to me as if we take these smaller-scale systems for granted nowadays. Whether the 24hr news/weather cycle, internet forums and access to models is to blame for this or not, I don't know, but I remember as a child in the early 90s, these type of storm systems were what made great winters. Sure, we had the big storms in 93, 96, 2003, and so on and so forth, but if we didn't have these little "nickle and dime" storms that dropped 4-5, 6-8 on us several times a winter, our winters wouldn't have been so great.

Sure, 2009-2010 was a great winter, but mostly because of Dec 19, and the February miracle. Other than that we really didn't get much.

I think I'll take 5-10 of these little events (with hopefully 1 or 2 big ones, of course) over "all or nothing" any year.

[canderson]

Agreed! Reading idiots in the PHL threads complain "oh we're only getting 1-3 wtf!" irks me to no end. Be lucky if you get warning-level criteria, it's not that often unless you live in the boonies up on a mountain like MAG and Jamie.

[Santa Clause]

lol if I ever complain about snow again take me out. 2 hours before work cleaning that sleet snow mess up! Snowblower didnt work, plow had trouble did most by hand. Lesson learned about sleet snow haha.