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Central PA - 2012 wanes


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What's your thinking on the dry slot and the storm redevelopment?

At the low levels, it's clear the coastal has taken over as the primary storm.

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There is an impressive Cold Air Damming (CAD) signature which is amazing despite the clear lack of -NAO / +PNA. This goes to show you that widepsread snow and ice can occur in Pennsylvania even without major down stream blocking. Looking at the Sterling, VA radar over the past 40min shows increasing returns near Luray, VA.

A meso-scale discussion from earlier today confirms my thinking, and although many locations will see a lull, there should definitely be a second round of snow and ice tonight. It's just down to watching the radar, observations and radar kids.

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The dryslot should halt its progress and start to pivot around the new low as it develops, hopefully sooner than later. Looks like it's developing quickly, so snow should only shut off or let up for a pretty short time if it does so. Hopefully this doesn't allow too much warm air to get in and change things over-sometimes that happens when dryslots muck things up.

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MAG, any hopes of us turning back over to snow or is it a premature game over?

I'm pretty surprised you guys have sleet issues this early, I don't even see anything on mesoanalyis that's even close to freezing at 925, 850, or 700mb (Though i'm waiting on 21z analysis). With the coastal already taking control I wouldn't get too carried away at this stage quite yet. Will just have to see if things cool enough as the coastal low deepens to change you back. Sleet is def visible on BGM radar as much lower cc's around 4400-5000ft indicate warm sliver might be between 900 and 850mb.

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