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Central PA - 2012 wanes


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No flakes yet in Manheim. 30F. Radar echos overhead for several hours now.

Echos overhead are because the average radar "slice" altitude in our area is around 10k MSL because there aren't any close NWS radar sites. We're situated pretty much dead center between KCCX, KDIX and KLWX. We get a good idea what is coming, but not really what is happening locally. For this, super doppler 8 is more informative.

GR3 has shown echoes overhead since 0930. Super doppler 8 has been clear overhead all day. See my previous post.

AND just as I submit the edit, a few tiny flakes start falling lazily toward the ground.

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Just over an inch of snow has fallen at this point. Car accidents are occurring all over the place as morons, the region over have decided to take to their cars.

I am a bit surprised at the amount of people here who are either shocked to learn about this storm (I know yesterday was Christmas but still) or are just denying it is going to happen.

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What's your thinking based on the last NAM and other short range models, plus obs? Pretty much what you expected?

This storm so far is behaving as anticipated, although my map might end up underdone in York and Lancaster and perhaps the southeast. I figured this was going to be one of those storms that hit fast and hard. I did notice the 12z NAM ptypes kept our area all snow for the first time that i've seen. Still gets mixing/liquid pretty far up into NE PA which I'm suspect about... I think that will be thwarted a bit (say maybe gets to about I-80. We'll see how it goes.

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This storm so far is behaving as anticipated, although my map might end up underdone in York and Lancaster and perhaps the southeast. I figured this was going to be one of those storms that hit fast and hard. I did notice the 12z NAM ptypes kept our area all snow for the first time that i've seen. Still gets mixing/liquid pretty far up into NE PA which I'm suspect about... I think that will be thwarted a bit (say maybe gets to about I-80. We'll see how it goes.

Mag, you still thinking the 3-6 for SWPA? I'm starting to think it may actually overperform down here?

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Echos overhead are because the average radar "slice" altitude in our area is around 10k MSL because there aren't any close NWS radar sites. We're situated pretty much dead center between KCCX, KDIX and KLWX. We get a good idea what is coming, but not really what is happening locally. For this, super doppler 8 is more informative.

GR3 has shown echoes overhead since 0930. Super doppler 8 has been clear overhead all day. See my previous post.

AND just as I submit the edit, a few tiny flakes start falling lazily toward the ground.

The bad thing about Super Doppler 8 is that it does not appear (at least to me) to pick up on the snow intensity very well.

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wow sad to hear about accidents already. be careful out there any travelers.

Scanner's going crazy here.

This storm so far is behaving as anticipated, although my map might end up underdone in York and Lancaster and perhaps the southeast. I figured this was going to be one of those storms that hit fast and hard. I did notice the 12z NAM ptypes kept our area all snow for the first time that i've seen. Still gets mixing/liquid pretty far up into NE PA which I'm suspect about... I think that will be thwarted a bit (say maybe gets to about I-80. We'll see how it goes.

I saw that as well on the NAM....that's pretty good news. I know it's nowcast time but we finally have the NAM/Euro combo we like to see.

We have .6 already, heavy snow, 1/4 mile vis, 23.6

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Mag, you still thinking the 3-6 for SWPA? I'm starting to think it may actually overperform down here?

For now, although i'm open to you guys overperforming. Right now I'm keeping an eye on PBZ radar and noticing that it appears via dual pol mixing (probably sleet) is trying to work up to Pittsburgh. Def seeing some resistance though once it gets just south of town. Also have noticed on regular winter radar that the snow/sleet is starting to work on changing back down into sw PA. Will definitely be keeping an eye on obs from you guys.

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For now, although i'm open to you guys overperforming. Right now I'm keeping an eye on PBZ radar and noticing that it appears via dual pol mixing (probably sleet) is trying to work up to Pittsburgh. Def seeing some resistance though once it gets just south of town. Also have noticed on regular winter radar that the snow/sleet is starting to work on changing back down into sw PA. Will definitely be keeping an eye on obs from you guys.

Its sleeting heavily in my area SW Allegheny County. Very little in the way of flakes mixed in, but so far heaviest sleet I have had.

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Scanner's going crazy here.

I saw that as well on the NAM....that's pretty good news. I know it's nowcast time but we finally have the NAM/Euro combo we like to see.

We have .6 already, heavy snow, 1/4 mile vis, 23.6

Measured 1.5" down this way a little bit ago. Snow has lightened up some with another heavy band getting ready to push thru soon.

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For now, although i'm open to you guys overperforming. Right now I'm keeping an eye on PBZ radar and noticing that it appears via dual pol mixing (probably sleet) is trying to work up to Pittsburgh. Def seeing some resistance though once it gets just south of town. Also have noticed on regular winter radar that the snow/sleet is starting to work on changing back down into sw PA. Will definitely be keeping an eye on obs from you guys.

Thanks....any truth the claims that the secondary is forming fairly far south?

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looks like NWS bumped up my totals and took the sleet out of my forecast (point and click)

  • This Afternoon Snow. High near 27. East wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
  • Tonight Snow. Low around 26. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

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