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Central PA - 2012 wanes


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Jim that’s a good point!

NWS has a good discussion

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

BOTH THE

SREF AND GEFS MEAN SHOW A 5 TO 6 SIGMA 850MB EASTERLY U-WIND ANOMALY

WHICH IS A CLASSIC SYNOPTIC FRONTAL-TYPE HEAVY PCPN SIGNAL.

COMBINE THE PATTERN WITH SOME PTYPE/THERMAL PROBABILITIES AND YOU

END UP WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NW AND

N-CNTRL MTNS. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO INVOLVE

PTYPES OVR THE CENTRAL ZONES FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE

CENTRAL MTNS AND RIDGE-VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE

HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE SRN EDGES OF THE PCPN

SHIELD /AS NOTED BY HPC WWD DISCUSSION/...STILL FEEL THAT FZRA

MAY BE OVERDONE ESP OVER THE INTERIOR SXNS OF THE CWA AS FCST

SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW A WEAK WARM INTRUSION AROUND H8 WHICH SHOULD

BE OVERCOME BY WET-BULB EFFECTS. THIS FAVORS A BRIEF TRANSITION TO

SNOW/SLEET AS OPPOSED TO FZRA. THE EXPECTED WINTRY MIX WILL STILL

BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC REGARDING FINAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

Edit: Nice comma

http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php

saw that out of CTP. have to admit my area of concern is some of the new model soundings for the 13Z RAP and the 12Z NAM still being on the warm side for northeast PA. if that's still the case, i'm wishing I had nsharp here so I could lop off those 3 degrees C between 800 and 875 and just go with the resultant, which would be from first glance like 5-7" snow and 2-3" sleet/snow mix, not the 4" snow and 0.4" -FZRAPL mix that the latest Bufkit is printing out for AVP.

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Starting to see large pressure drops over coastal NC and the primary low has weakened 4mb in the past hour. Transfer is happening ahead of schedule it seems.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif

interesting fact -- based on some of the current obs I have been looking at there are a number of "FZFG" obs... this is because of an algorithm programmed into the ASOS that will report FZFG when visibilities are 1/2SM or less and the temperature is below freezing and 4 degrees or less away from the dew point temperature

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saw that out of CTP. have to admit my area of concern is some of the new model soundings for the 13Z RAP and the 12Z NAM still being on the warm side for northeast PA. if that's still the case, i'm wishing I had nsharp here so I could lop off those 3 degrees C between 800 and 875 and just go with the resultant, which would be from first glance like 5-7" snow and 2-3" sleet/snow mix, not the 4" snow and 0.4" -FZRAPL mix that the latest Bufkit is printing out for AVP.

Jim

Just wondering how much the CAD is going to effect things?

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