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Central PA - 2012 wanes


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Wmsptwx

I think that I am leaning towards what Mags forecast is for us. I think we got more Cad in place than the models are predicting. I think they are having a hard time handling that.

I do think there is going to be more snow to the west of us as depicted in his map.

It's a shame yesterday the models still couldn't come to an agreement. "24 hours out"

Did anyone hear what the Euro run was showing last night?

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Just a warning the snow has been changing to sleet very quickly in northern va as the precip pushes in. There is a warm layer making progress north. Not a good sign. I am very familiar with climo there and in pa and northwest va usually has good cad. Euro and gfs kept leesburg snow until midday but they went to sleet almost immediately. Might mean the nam is correct about the warm layer blasting north. We will see.

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If the NAM scoops the Euro I'll eat my hat.

FWIW CTP overnight bumped MDT from 1-3" to 2-4" and tool out verbiage regarding .1" of zr.

Last night I thought the Nam was outlier in my opinion. With the higher QPF, holding the precipitation back some and the warmer temps. Euro has been pretty steady with it's runs.

So hopefully the CAD will help you out. Nam is showing 5-6" for us.

Snow moving into to Pa.

http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php

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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS

EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST

THIS EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET

* ACCUMULATIONS...THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

Word.

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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS

EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST

THIS EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET

* ACCUMULATIONS...THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

Word.

what's interesting about that is they have not changed Harrisburg area from 2-4" yet...

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what's interesting about that is they have not changed Harrisburg area from 2-4" yet...

I saw that, but I'm sure it's coming. They probably wanted to get us updated ASAP since there were no headlines at all down here. Wonder if this means the WWA will switch to WSW for Cumberland, Dauphin, etc...

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big question of the morning folks. with the missing raob from ILN, did they correct the warm bias between 800 and 900 that plagued the 00Z model runs down at NCEP?

Jim that’s a good point!

NWS has a good discussion

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

BOTH THE

SREF AND GEFS MEAN SHOW A 5 TO 6 SIGMA 850MB EASTERLY U-WIND ANOMALY

WHICH IS A CLASSIC SYNOPTIC FRONTAL-TYPE HEAVY PCPN SIGNAL.

COMBINE THE PATTERN WITH SOME PTYPE/THERMAL PROBABILITIES AND YOU

END UP WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NW AND

N-CNTRL MTNS. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO INVOLVE

PTYPES OVR THE CENTRAL ZONES FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE

CENTRAL MTNS AND RIDGE-VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE

HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE SRN EDGES OF THE PCPN

SHIELD /AS NOTED BY HPC WWD DISCUSSION/...STILL FEEL THAT FZRA

MAY BE OVERDONE ESP OVER THE INTERIOR SXNS OF THE CWA AS FCST

SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW A WEAK WARM INTRUSION AROUND H8 WHICH SHOULD

BE OVERCOME BY WET-BULB EFFECTS. THIS FAVORS A BRIEF TRANSITION TO

SNOW/SLEET AS OPPOSED TO FZRA. THE EXPECTED WINTRY MIX WILL STILL

BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC REGARDING FINAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

Edit: Nice comma

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php

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