skiier04 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 CTP's latest afd mentions that most model profiles now show all snow for the NW 1/2-2/3 of the state and amounts may have to be tweaked upwards. Hoping for the best!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 WWA for the valley. Winter Weather AdvisoryExpires 7:00 AM EST on December 27, 2012 Statement as of 2:09 PM EST on December 25, 2012 ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 am Wednesday to 7 am EST Thursday... The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a wintry mix of precipitation... which is in effect from 10 am Wednesday to 7 am EST Thursday. * Locations... much of the lower Susquehanna valley. * Hazard types... light snow turning to sleet and freezing rain. * Accumulations... 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet followed by a coating of ice due to freezing rain. * Timing... snow will move in from the southwest during the mid to late morning hours on Wednesday. The snow will gradually turn to a mix of sleet and freezing rain during the evening... and may turn to plain rain early Wednesday night. The heaviest of the precipitation should be over by midnight. * Impacts... hazardous travel due to snow or ice covered roads. Power outages are possible due to ice which may build up on power lines or trees. * Winds... east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible Wednesday night. * Temperatures... in the lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 LWX has a little more bullish look than CTP with their counties that border southern PA. Latest guidance suggest 3-6" snow/sleet with possible .25+" fzra for Adams and franklin areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Rick I thought you lived in WB? I live in Hanover near the high school. I can see ll the way dow to the power plant from my front porch. Warnings are up for 5 to 8 inches + sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 CTP's latest afd mentions that most model profiles now show all snow for the NW 1/2-2/3 of the state and amounts may have to be tweaked upwards. Hoping for the best!! i just seen that and its encouraging...my point and click doesnt show any sleet and has 6-14" of snow. it will be interesting to see how this all plays out with our area in the battle zone..could go either way but from experience if they even mention sleet it usually happens...lets hope this time is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That much sleet would be a disaster for cleanup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z: NAM - Cooler but still a bit too warm for comfort, probably lots of IP/ZR GFS - Warm but at least 2/3rds of the precip beats the H85 0 line RGEM - All snow 80N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z: NAM - Cooler but still a bit too warm for comfort, probably lots of IP/ZR GFS - Warm but at least 2/3rds of the precip beats the H85 0 line RGEM - All snow 80N are you in wilkes-barre or state college? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 are you in wilkes-barre or state college? W-B...home for the winter break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 W-B...home for the winter break. i figured that but just wanted to see where your obs will be from.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Xmas night to all! Hoping for a 2nd straight overperformer tomorrow ...but it's a long shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Come on models...just give us snow please lol. Anyone know snow totals euro printed out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So what seems to be the final story for the harrisburg area? 1-5in of snow turning to sleet and rain? or could it really all turn into a true snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Quiet in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Updated advisory for lsv says " up to 1" of snow". It had 1-3" when issued. Not sure what's up wit dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Kinda warm outside. Clouds moved in pretty early, and the temps aren't dropping as quick as we should be hoping if we want white stuff. (at least in the LSV) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Merry Christmas!!! Was looking at the Nam & GFS and they are both showing a mix. But Nam is showing a lot more QPF Than the GFS? The Gem is looking pretty good for us snow wise. I read Mags update and seen his map. We still looking good? Or do we need to be worried about temps. I know it's radar and Short range model time right now. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Lots of questions.....hmmm? Hoping for snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So any verdict as to the snow ctp said that they might have to up totals based on the Europen model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM still warm. Gah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks okay to me though..better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 new NWS discussion .SYNOPSIS... THE FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF DECEMBER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE WEATHER IS TRANQUIL AHEAD OF WHAT PROMISES TO BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON. SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE...AND TEMPS ARE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT MIN TEMPERATURE DROP OFF OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ONLY FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS. LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS THE FIRST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK...CONTINUING STEADILY NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. SO EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP EXTREMELY LATE TONIGHT...WE EXPECT THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLASSIC MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF WITH A STORM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TENNESSEE INTO KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK IS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT 5 STD DEV EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES POINT TO AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW IS GREATEST FROM ABOUT ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE AND TO THE NORTH...WITH SOME SORT OF WINTRY MIX COMPLICATING ACCUMULATION EXPECTATIONS OVER SERN AREAS. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE EVENTUAL COASTAL STORM. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL AGREE THE STORM MOVES TO THE CHESAPEAKE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WED/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY MORE EAST WITH THE SOLUTION SUGGESTING MORE SNOW THAN A MIX FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE 18Z GFS/NAM ARE A TAD CLOSER TO SERN PA AND JUST A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IN A WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEG TILT AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG WITH A 12-18 HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP FOR THE AREA. THE THERMAL PROFILES SHOW ALL SNOW FOR THE NWRN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE AREA...THUS ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN FORECAST CONTINUITY. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY CONFIGURATION AND TIMING. LANCASTER-YORK HAVE NO HEADLINES...BUT EVEN THERE CONDITIONS COULD GET SLICK FOR A TIME FROM A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN. RAIN OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES COULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING ON THE TRIBS OF THE LOWER MAINSTEM...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO POST A FLOOD WATCH. THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD WARRANT AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE SNOW NUMBERS UPWARD...AND SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NUMBERS DOWN...BUT SO FAR IT IS THE ODD MAN OUT OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. OUR CURRENT NUMBERS ALIGN WELL WITH BOTH THE SREF/GEFS THREAT PAGE PROBABILITIES WHICH SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW...WITH ABOUT 3-4 INCHES LOCALLY TO AROUND A FOOT OVER NWRN PA. AS THE LOW REACHES OUR LATITUDE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPECT PRECIP TO SHUT OFF AND GO SHOWERY RATHER QUICKLY...MEANING THE BULK OF THE STORM SHOULD BASICALLY BE OVER BY THE WEE HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Lol so it sounds like they still dont know. Whoever stays all snow will get 10 to 15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Great write up by CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 current NWS snow map.. anyone know how they produce these maps? are the purely computer generated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Awful warm outside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 And side by side, while State College shows 2-3 for the Schuylkill/Carbon border, Mt Holly shows 4-6. Wonder who's map will come closer to verifying? Not that anyone really cares as I'm an outlier on both forums and nobody talks about my region. I'm just wondering. current NWS snow map.. anyone know how they produce these maps? are the purely computer generated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm thinking 6-10" around State College/Altoona/Johnstown and 10-15" from 219 west and north of I-80, especially west of I-81. Going down 322 amounts tail off pretty quick especially east of Lewistown, to hopefully a couple or few inches of snow/slop around Harrisburg. The faster the snow arrives the better, as warm air will be working in aloft via screaming easterly winds. Hopefully there's a big burst before changeovers start. Sometimes these can surprise on the positive end, since there should be a good CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm thinking 6-10" around State College/Altoona/Johnstown and 10-15" from 219 west and north of I-80, especially west of I-81. Going down 322 amounts tail off pretty quick especially east of Lewistown, to hopefully a couple or few inches of snow/slop around Harrisburg. The faster the snow arrives the better, as warm air will be working in aloft via screaming easterly winds. Hopefully there's a big burst before changeovers start. Sometimes these can surprise on the positive end, since there should be a good CAD signature. Thinking the same. Currently 28.8, stuff is freezing up nicely ahead of time, including bare ground. Snow should accumulate past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 GFS is warm...definitely a little less snow for east areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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