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Central PA - 2012 wanes


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WWA for the valley.

Winter Weather Advisory

Expires 7:00 AM EST on December 27, 2012

Statement as of 2:09 PM EST on December 25, 2012

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 am Wednesday to 7 am

EST Thursday...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter

Weather Advisory for a wintry mix of precipitation... which is in

effect from 10 am Wednesday to 7 am EST Thursday.

* Locations... much of the lower Susquehanna valley.

* Hazard types... light snow turning to sleet and freezing rain.

* Accumulations... 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet followed by a

coating of ice due to freezing rain.

* Timing... snow will move in from the southwest during the mid to

late morning hours on Wednesday. The snow will gradually turn to

a mix of sleet and freezing rain during the evening... and may

turn to plain rain early Wednesday night. The heaviest of the

precipitation should be over by midnight.

* Impacts... hazardous travel due to snow or ice covered roads.

Power outages are possible due to ice which may build up on

power lines or trees.

* Winds... east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30

mph possible Wednesday night.

* Temperatures... in the lower 30s.

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CTP's latest afd mentions that most model profiles now show all snow for the NW 1/2-2/3 of the state and amounts may have to be tweaked upwards. Hoping for the best!!

i just seen that and its encouraging...my point and click doesnt show any sleet and has 6-14" of snow.

it will be interesting to see how this all plays out with our area in the battle zone..could go either way but from experience if they even mention sleet it usually happens...lets hope this time is different.

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Merry Christmas!!!

Was looking at the Nam & GFS and they are both showing a mix. But Nam is showing a lot more QPF Than the GFS?

The Gem is looking pretty good for us snow wise.

I read Mags update and seen his map.

We still looking good? Or do we need to be worried about temps.

I know it's radar and Short range model time right now.

Thanks :popcorn:

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new NWS discussion

.SYNOPSIS...

THE FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL IMPACT THE

ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE

REST OF DECEMBER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM

FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

THE WEATHER IS TRANQUIL AHEAD OF WHAT PROMISES TO BE THE FIRST

WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON. SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER

ALL BUT THE FAR SE...AND TEMPS ARE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S AND

30S. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT MIN TEMPERATURE DROP OFF OVERNIGHT...WITH

LOCATIONS ONLY FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS.

LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS THE FIRST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING

OR MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK...CONTINUING

STEADILY NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. SO EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF

LIGHT PRECIP EXTREMELY LATE TONIGHT...WE EXPECT THE REGION TO

REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

CLASSIC MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT

DAY AND A HALF WITH A STORM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH

TENNESSEE INTO KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY

WEDNESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK IS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER MOST

OF THE AREA...BUT 5 STD DEV EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES

POINT TO AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT OF

HEAVY SNOW IS GREATEST FROM ABOUT ALTOONA-STATE COLLEGE AND TO THE

NORTH...WITH SOME SORT OF WINTRY MIX COMPLICATING ACCUMULATION

EXPECTATIONS OVER SERN AREAS.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXPECTED TRACK

OF THE EVENTUAL COASTAL STORM. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL AGREE THE STORM

MOVES TO THE CHESAPEAKE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WED/EARLY THURSDAY

MORNING...BUT THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY MORE EAST

WITH THE SOLUTION SUGGESTING MORE SNOW THAN A MIX FOR MUCH OF THE

REGION. THE 18Z GFS/NAM ARE A TAD CLOSER TO SERN PA AND JUST A BIT

MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IN A WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR JUST

ABOVE THE SURFACE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEG TILT AS IT MOVES THRU THE

REGION...SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG WITH

A 12-18 HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP FOR THE AREA. THE

THERMAL PROFILES SHOW ALL SNOW FOR THE NWRN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE

AREA...THUS ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN FORECAST CONTINUITY.

WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY CONFIGURATION AND

TIMING. LANCASTER-YORK HAVE NO HEADLINES...BUT EVEN THERE

CONDITIONS COULD GET SLICK FOR A TIME FROM A LIGHT WINTRY MIX

BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN.

RAIN OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES COULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING ON THE TRIBS

OF THE LOWER MAINSTEM...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO

POST A FLOOD WATCH.

THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD WARRANT AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE SNOW NUMBERS

UPWARD...AND SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NUMBERS DOWN...BUT SO FAR IT IS

THE ODD MAN OUT OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.

OUR CURRENT NUMBERS ALIGN WELL WITH BOTH THE SREF/GEFS THREAT PAGE

PROBABILITIES WHICH SHOW A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW...WITH

ABOUT 3-4 INCHES LOCALLY TO AROUND A FOOT OVER NWRN PA.

AS THE LOW REACHES OUR LATITUDE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPECT PRECIP

TO SHUT OFF AND GO SHOWERY RATHER QUICKLY...MEANING THE BULK OF

THE STORM SHOULD BASICALLY BE OVER BY THE WEE HOURS OF THURSDAY

MORNING.

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And side by side, while State College shows 2-3 for the Schuylkill/Carbon border, Mt Holly shows 4-6. Wonder who's map will come closer to verifying? Not that anyone really cares as I'm an outlier on both forums and nobody talks about my region. I'm just wondering.

current NWS snow map..

anyone know how they produce these maps?

are the purely computer generated?

Snow.png

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I'm thinking 6-10" around State College/Altoona/Johnstown and 10-15" from 219 west and north of I-80, especially west of I-81. Going down 322 amounts tail off pretty quick especially east of Lewistown, to hopefully a couple or few inches of snow/slop around Harrisburg. The faster the snow arrives the better, as warm air will be working in aloft via screaming easterly winds. Hopefully there's a big burst before changeovers start. Sometimes these can surprise on the positive end, since there should be a good CAD signature.

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I'm thinking 6-10" around State College/Altoona/Johnstown and 10-15" from 219 west and north of I-80, especially west of I-81. Going down 322 amounts tail off pretty quick especially east of Lewistown, to hopefully a couple or few inches of snow/slop around Harrisburg. The faster the snow arrives the better, as warm air will be working in aloft via screaming easterly winds. Hopefully there's a big burst before changeovers start. Sometimes these can surprise on the positive end, since there should be a good CAD signature.

Thinking the same.

Currently 28.8, stuff is freezing up nicely ahead of time, including bare ground. Snow should accumulate past.

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