PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 First off.. Merry Christmas everyone! Alright, here's my first call map (and probably last call) for this storm. Generic categories of 1-3, 3-6, 6-10, and 10-14. Thought about actually bumping up these categories but I'm not gonna get crazy. SW and SE PA are my big question marks as slight shifts in the track and under or over forecasted warming of the thermal layers could screw up amounts either way. More minor concerns about timing of the handoff and potential to cut QPF some. Basically, my 6 inch line that traverses PA is the dividing line of where I think mostly snow and significant mixing occurs. There certainly could be sleet issues in places like AOO, UNV, and IPT.. but I think bulk of precip stays snow. The 3-6 zone would see much more of a mixed bag of precip perhaps turning to rain (esp far southeast). Southern Laurels in Somerset county as well as the south central mountains might see a good bit of freezing rain. As for northern PA, someone needs to get Potter a plane ticket ASAP. Hahaha! I'm insanely jealous, and of course I would miss the big one, never fails Even if someone bought me a plane ticket, one would have to convince my boss! My final thinking is very similar to your map, but either way, many snowlovers in CPA will be in their glory that is for sure. My work production is going to be aweful the next few days that is for sure! Merry Christmas as well everyone, and happy holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 precip for ipt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard96 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What do you guys think about the NAM and its NEPA torch?? GFS looks to have been trending towards the Euro and the other models... little confused on what exactly to expect in Hazleton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Basically, my 6 inch line that traverses PA is the dividing line of where I think mostly snow and significant mixing occurs. And I'm just to the southeast of it... If it's not one way, it's another. In the back to back epic winters, I was too far north and west. This time around, I'm too far south and east. Anyway, I have to say...nice map and thanks for all your analysis during our storm threats. It is appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas Everyone, i hope you all have a great day..... a tad over 2" yesterday, it looked really awesome traveling to our family gathering early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas everyone! Finished with about .5" It did get above freezing here so alot of the snow melted on the roads. MAG excellent map. I think while looking at the models it seems 8" would be a solid call for my town. I feel the storm could bust either direction. Lower due to sleet, maybe only 5 or 6 inches. If the Euro is right maybe a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas, everyone. Here's to hoping the storm shifts southeast a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 First off.. Merry Christmas everyone! Alright, here's my first call map (and probably last call) for this storm. Generic categories of 1-3, 3-6, 6-10, and 10-14. Thought about actually bumping up these categories but I'm not gonna get crazy. SW and SE PA are my big question marks as slight shifts in the track and under or over forecasted warming of the thermal layers could screw up amounts either way. More minor concerns about timing of the handoff and potential to cut QPF some. Basically, my 6 inch line that traverses PA is the dividing line of where I think mostly snow and significant mixing occurs. There certainly could be sleet issues in places like AOO, UNV, and IPT.. but I think bulk of precip stays snow. The 3-6 zone would see much more of a mixed bag of precip perhaps turning to rain (esp far southeast). Southern Laurels in Somerset county as well as the south central mountains might see a good bit of freezing rain. As for northern PA, someone needs to get Potter a plane ticket ASAP. I will be reporting from Potters back yard. I will be honored to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas to all, and to all, a good snow! Fwiw, some discussions down to the southern states say that the NAM failed this storm...per one discussion posted in the NYC thread the Tulsa WFO was giving it "a failing grade". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 gfs warms up considerably...what a grinch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 "The 12Z guidance has much colder low level environment showing up thus longer period of freezing rain." I just read this from DiMartino over in Jersey, who fwiw nailed yesterday's event last week. Any confirmation from redtags? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z RGEM all snow or at least mostly snow to light mix. FWIW. (This for I80-N btw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 gfs warms up considerably...what a grinch! Another FWIW but already a good thump of snow falls before the 850 line elevates above 80N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yea dude ur right looks like .7 to .9 falls before any changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12Z Clown Map from GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z GFS also adds on a little bonus light-moderate snowfall on the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I hope Potter is taking cover. A pretty wicked dry line going through Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 gfs warms up considerably...what a grinch! No it doesn't, you're getting 8-12" of snow man. Might be some icing issues in the LV, but down in VA they are facing a mess of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Anyone see the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro's colder, MDT stays all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Any precip amounts? Thanks c...merry xmas bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I can't read the totals, but C PA up in the mountains to S NY get clobbered still. UNV-Williamsport-Scranton-Binghamton with high totals it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The million dollar question, does ctp go with advisories for the lsv or upgrade to warnings for counties such as Adams , Franklin , Cumberland Not sure if we will be able to make warning criteria in any precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I can't read the totals, but C PA up in the mountains to S NY get clobbered still. UNV-Williamsport-Scranton-Binghamton with high totals it appears. Someone needs to mention the Pottsville/Tamaqua area once in awhile. Scranton and Binghamton get more play and they aren't really even a part of the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 wswarnings just were posted columbia and other near by counties. I can see columbia county from my front porch. My SAME radio went off and scared the crap out of me. now waiting for the other counties to light up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Rick I thought you lived in WB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 yuck.....sleet / freezing rain i thought i had a shot at all snow but not according to the nws URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 209 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 PAZ017>019-026>028-045-046-049>053-058-260315- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.121226T1400Z-121227T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0006.121226T1500Z-121227T1200Z/ CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN- JUNIATA-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR- NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG... STATE COLLEGE...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN... MIFFLINTOWN...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG... SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG... BERWICK...POTTSVILLE 209 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A HEAVY MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW TURNING TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO MIX IN. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FOLLOWED BY A HEAVY LAYER OF SLEET. A COATING OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. * TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND TURN TO SLEET. FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO BECOME MIXED IN THE EVENING. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO ICE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO ICE WHICH MAY BUILD UP ON POWER LINES OR TREES. * WINDS...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WEDNESDAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 WFO Binghamton tweeting about Colder Guidance.... https://twitter.com/NWSBinghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Another surprise snow event tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 yikes lots of sleet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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