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Central PA - 2012 wanes


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GFS hours 42, 48, 54, and 60. 850 and 700 lows stay largely south of PA for the most part. I wouldn't get too carried away on the precise locations of the ptype pixels on these maps, but it's a general idea.

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Also, congrats to the Harrisburg/York/LNS folks on scoring 2-4 inches (Goldsboro, York county the winner right now at 4.2" as per the PNS). The southeast folks that were supposed to get the least of this event in our area seemed to end up with the most (hint hint). I think NAM and SREFs are amped too far NW and warm with Wednesdays storm.

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GFS hours 42, 48, 54, and 60. 850 and 700 lows stay largely south of PA for the most part. I wouldn't get too carried away on the precise locations of the ptype pixels on these maps, but it's a general idea.

post-1507-0-03767400-1356408353_thumb.pn

post-1507-0-45254300-1356408364_thumb.pn

post-1507-0-35149700-1356408390_thumb.pn

post-1507-0-12637700-1356408399_thumb.pn

Also, congrats to the Harrisburg/York/LNS folks on scoring 2-4 inches (Goldsboro, York county the winner right now at 4.2" as per the PNS). The southeast folks that were supposed to get the least of this event in our area seemed to end up with the most (hint hint). I think NAM and SREFs are amped too far NW and warm with Wednesdays storm.

Thanks for posting the maps and keeping us informed. I will be traveling to SouthCentral NY Wed morning and look to be in the bulls-eye.

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About 2.3 inches to finish things off here in Three Springs (Huntingdon County). It's actually never stopped snowing, as light as it is now. About the happiest I've been on Christmas eve in a long time (I remember 2003 it snowing on Christmas day, but I was bummed about that individual event because it kept me from seeing my new girlfriend at the time, what was I thinking?!?) so that's nice.

Hoping for a kick ass storm on Wednesday.

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Euro whallops unv

Wow i'll say, two back to back 0.60 frames and temp at 850 never gets higher than about -4ºC. 1.5" total precip. Williamsport and Scranton/WB stay all snow without drama. Harrisburg doesn't look like they get as much frozen as the 12z had, and they spike to +4ºC at 850. Big gradient. Pittsburgh all snow with about 0.8" total precip.

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Merry white Christmas to all! Euro sounds too good to be true. Just happy things have turned so wintry after that.awful start to Dec. Really excited for this storm even if we mix some and happy to have some new friends here--goodnight everyone :)

I'm excited for you guys too, after all the suffering Central PA has had to endure all this time, hopefully this verifies. Watch the mid level lows very closely, but it looks so far like a lot of the precip is finished before mid level warmth can cause problems. Harrisburg south looks like they might be in trouble toward the tail end of it but most of the rest of you guys look like you're in line for a good dumping.

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First off.. Merry Christmas everyone!

Alright, here's my first call map (and probably last call) for this storm. Generic categories of 1-3, 3-6, 6-10, and 10-14. Thought about actually bumping up these categories but I'm not gonna get crazy. SW and SE PA are my big question marks as slight shifts in the track and under or over forecasted warming of the thermal layers could screw up amounts either way. More minor concerns about timing of the handoff and potential to cut QPF some.

Basically, my 6 inch line that traverses PA is the dividing line of where I think mostly snow and significant mixing occurs. There certainly could be sleet issues in places like AOO, UNV, and IPT.. but I think bulk of precip stays snow. The 3-6 zone would see much more of a mixed bag of precip perhaps turning to rain (esp far southeast). Southern Laurels in Somerset county as well as the south central mountains might see a good bit of freezing rain. As for northern PA, someone needs to get Potter a plane ticket ASAP.

post-1507-0-40234000-1356420207_thumb.gi

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First off.. Merry Christmas everyone!

Alright, here's my first call map (and probably last call) for this storm. Generic categories of 1-3, 3-6, 6-10, and 10-14. Thought about actually bumping up these categories but I'm not gonna get crazy. SW and SE PA are my big question marks as slight shifts in the track and under or over forecasted warming of the thermal layers could screw up amounts either way. More minor concerns about timing of the handoff and potential to cut QPF some.

Basically, my 6 inch line that traverses PA is the dividing line of where I think mostly snow and significant mixing occurs. There certainly could be sleet issues in places like AOO, UNV, and IPT.. but I think bulk of precip stays snow. The 3-6 zone would see much more of a mixed bag of precip perhaps turning to rain (esp far southeast). Southern Laurels in Somerset county as well as the south central mountains might see a good bit of freezing rain. As for northern PA, someone needs to get Potter a plane ticket ASAP.

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i would be very happy with that (6-10)

thanks for your thoughts..

and MERRY CHRISTMAS to all..

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Shift SE dammit. By your explaination, that damn lake is the boundary. 20 mile shift... do it.

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Ahah, smooth that line a bit and Three Springs is good to go. I stayed conservative for now in that south central mountain region, didn't want to overextend the 6-10. Def a decent possibility that might end up pushed over eventually.

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