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December 27/28 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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Another quick and dirty way to take a look at the NH annular mode ... just a time-latitude section

1000mb height anomaly:

post-128-0-57226100-1356107996_thumb.gif

500mb height anomaly:

post-128-0-13604700-1356108005_thumb.gif

Supports a "negative AO" around the end of November into the start of December, but certainly not the last 10 days.

good plots! Though it should be noted that the warmest week nationally was actually that first week in Dec...It was one of the warmest on record.

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good plots! Though it should be noted that the warmest week nationally was actually that first week in Dec...It was one of the warmest on record.

culprit being the GOA low.

The AO is a wave number 1 hemispheric index. At what longitude the arctic cold ends up is up to the wave-3 pattern and up

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And then we do it again on the 30th. Stormy times.

The change to stormy has definitely happened...we needed this lakes cutter to load up a new airmass for us...seems like once we get at least some semi-arctic air in here, we can really start having some fun as indicated on model guidance over the next 10 days starting with Christmas Eve night...hopefully it comes to pass.

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The change to stormy has definitely happened...we needed this lakes cutter to load up a new airmass for us...seems like once we get at least some semi-arctic air in here, we can really start having some fun as indicated on model guidance over the next 10 days starting with Christmas Eve night...hopefully it comes to pass.

Maybe a period like Jan 2011?

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Maybe a period like Jan 2011?

Well that's setting the bar pretty high...5 feet of snow in 4 weeks is not something you'd predict, but the pattern definitely looks active and the cold supply looks better. We'll certainly have our chances in that setup.

It might get very cold at some point 2-3 weeks down the road, but for the next 10-14 days I think its just regular seasonably below average type cold...which is more than sufficient for snow events. Esp with climo dropping quickly.

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