HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I agree fully. To be honest, I don't look at those AO/NAO forecasts from CPC all that much....I'm a visual person, so I tend to gravitate to looking at the H5 pattern on all three ensembles. I get all I need from that. However, if they wanted a more accurate depiction, I think your method would certainly help in calculating a more true AO. Awesome. So now that you have no time at all, you want to make this new data set with me? haha.. Another quick and dirty way to take a look at the NH annular mode ... just a time-latitude section 1000mb height anomaly: 500mb height anomaly: Supports a "negative AO" around the end of November into the start of December, but certainly not the last 10 days. My brotha' from another motha' always comes through with the goods. Thanks man. The CPC method is flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Guys, when you have 850 mb temps below freezing and want to look to other layers to see if it would be too warm to support snow actually reaching the sfc what is the best to use? Do you just have to look at the thicknesses in the other layers of the atmosphere or am I making it too simple? 925mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 925mb http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ has nice graphs (soundings) for stations that show the temperature throughout the column 200mb to surface if there is any hint of warming aloft you may wanna look at these because if 850 and 925 are cold, there can be a sneaky warm layer between 750-825 mb that turns you over to sleet. these skew diagrams are soundings can be found there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z Ukie http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=120 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 ukie takes a perfect path for CP of sne to get snow in this marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Guys, when you have 850 mb temps below freezing and want to look to other layers to see if it would be too warm to support snow actually reaching the sfc what is the best to use? Do you just have to look at the thicknesses in the other layers of the atmosphere or am I making it too simple? Thickness of the 1000-850 mb layer is usually good enough to use. Generally below 130 dm is cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ has nice graphs (soundings) for stations that show the temperature throughout the column 200mb to surface if there is any hint of warming aloft you may wanna look at these because if 850 and 925 are cold, there can be a sneaky warm layer between 750-825 mb that turns you over to sleet. these skew diagrams are soundings can be found there. Good link, I can't see those other layers on SV, Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Thanks everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 So UK and GFS are snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Good link, I can't see those other layers on SV, Thanks Here's the links to the raw model maps and soundings pages.http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GGEM is a whiff SE. Not that any of this is overly surprising at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Here's the links to the raw model maps and soundings pages. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html http://vortex.plymou...du/grbcalc.html Thanks, I had those links somewhere on my computer and could not find them, Will put them in a new folder to make it easier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ensembles look like a lot of spread, but mean near or just SE of BM. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z GEFS Transfer occurs just southeast of Atlantic City. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12132.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z GEFS Transfer occurs just southeast of Atlantic City. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12144.gif This is not how you read ensemble data for a situation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 My brotha' from another motha' always comes through with the goods. Thanks man. The CPC method is flawed. anytime man. I do agree there are issues with that calculation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just a word of warning: if the GFS is correct with how features are handled in Canada, there will be some short-term tendencies as we approach storm date. 1. The low in Canada not lifting out, will decrease the CAD/High presence and open the door for coastal areas to warm up. 2. The h5 trough going negatively tilted early then opening up will mean dynamics will weaken somewhat, as it climbs northward, across the interior areas along the deformation zone. 3. The storm will probably trend faster as it gets "sling-shotted" to the northeast ahead of this low in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 This is not how you read ensemble data for a situation like this. Some cutters, some whiffs, so lets look at the mean which looks like a Jan 1996 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just a word of warning: if the GFS is correct with how features are handled in Canada, there will be some short-term tendencies as we approach storm date. 1. The low in Canada not lifting out, will decrease the CAD/High presence and open the door for coastal areas to warm up. 2. The h5 trough going negatively tilted early then opening up will mean dynamics will weaken somewhat, as it climbs northward, across the interior areas along the deformation zone. 3. The storm will probably trend faster as it gets "sling-shotted" to the northeast ahead of this low in Canada. IOW.....its either rain, or a castrated wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Some cutters, some whiffs, so lets look at the mean which looks like a Jan 1996 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Some cutters, some whiffs, so lets look at the mean which looks like a Jan 1996 repeat. The spread tool and just plain simple statistics (how many out of 20) should obviously be used. Since it is a probabilistic tool, you cannot make a deterministic conclusion from it as metfan did. This is a perfect example of using tools such as these incorrectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The spread tool and just plain simple statistics (how many out of 20) should obviously be used. Since it is a probabilistic tool, you cannot make a deterministic conclusion from it as metfan did. This is a perfect example of using tools such as these incorrectly. Yeah, the spread graphics are very useful in almost any situation tracking winter storms. The spaghetti plots aren't terrible either as you can see where the members are compared to the OP. But if we use the individual members...we get this. Seems like many are more amplified than the OP, only one in agreement, and a few are pretty flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 12z CMC is trying desparately to make this a pure Miller A nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yeah, the spread graphics are very useful in almost any situation tracking winter storms. The spaghetti plots aren't terrible either as you can see where the members are compared to the OP. But if we use the individual members...we get this. Seems like many are more amplified than the OP, only one in agreement, and a few are pretty flat. lol gotta love P007 versus P010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yeah, the spread graphics are very useful in almost any situation tracking winter storms. The spaghetti plots aren't terrible either as you can see where the members are compared to the OP. But if we use the individual members...we get this. Seems like many are more amplified than the OP, only one in agreement, and a few are pretty flat. To me that's an encouraging graphic. Tells us the GFS had a real struggle with initial conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ukie crushes us with BM track Euro is back to impossible scenario app runner. Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks like its going to be a decent hit on the euro up here on the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Sweet run for the deep interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Models are delivering Christmas presents today.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snow to ice pike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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