Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Got to wonder how the NAM can be this bad in so close. Quite a few shades warmer (in SNE) than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I am right at the south end of Sebago Lake, in Standish, ME. And, thanks for the Euro update Jeff. Very nice! My wife and i went up there memorial day weekend and had a great time. We stayed in north windham at the sebago lake cottages...we actually are thinking of moving up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Obviously elevated areas in NW CT do very well, as a matter of fact I would not be surprised if elevated SW CT pulls a surprise. Always a surprise here...brutal area to forecast for. I'm hoping to get a plowable event in and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas Mike, was it white? mike, I haven't been looking that closely at temps between 7-825 mb but if there is no warm taint, than u should get BOMB'D ...unless of course there is a mega death band that sets up to ur NW that leaves u in some subsidence screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah, they trimmed back the weenie 14-18" patches which I think will be more widespread than this map depicts. You guys are spiking a little early. This NAM run blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You guys are spiking a little early. This NAM run blows. It's a roast. Warm from the getgo. I haven't been following and it's the NAM outside of 24 hours so...wouldn't worry too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 1&z nam is a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It pretty much been the outlier west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You guys are spiking a little early. This NAM run blows. At what point is it non-weenie to toss out amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM has blown the last three events. Only thing it has succeeded at is the WAA snow in VT last week. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM has blown the last three events. Only thing it has succeeded at is the WAA snow in VT last week. No worries. Until it gains support it's tossed. Kept in mind, but tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM has blown the last three events. Only thing it has succeeded at is the WAA snow in VT last week. No worries. If it's this far off yet again inside of 30-42 hours...last 2 years we've been making excuses....be something NCEP has to address. It's not even on the same planet as the Euro now at 1.5 days. It was just yesterday that it was forecasting regionwide 1-3/2-4" in SNE. The model has a serious over-amping bias. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM has blown the last three events. Only thing it has succeeded at is the WAA snow in VT last week. No worries. Yeah Ed, Been long time since the nam nailed an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 All the other models are colder as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 At least the NAM can be used for accurate qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Personally, if you're north and/orwest of like RUT-VSF-PLY-PWM you'll have fun with this event, with mostly if not all snow. The euro was really cold...like surprisingly cold. NNE and even most of CNE is in a good spot for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Everything goes colder and that trash goes warmer..Please everyone...do not give it on ounce of credibility. Euro/ens are in their lethal zone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Everything goes colder and that trash goes warmer..Please everyone...do not give it on ounce of credibility. Euro/ens are in their lethal zone now Agree. How did the srefs look? On the cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Agree. How did the srefs look? On the cell Are the new ones out yet? I thought it was after 4:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Agree. How did the srefs look? On the cell They look pretty torched...but someone the other day said certain members were skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Are the new ones out yet? I thought it was after 4:00 Usually they come out before the NAM does. I'm being bad at Xmas dinner on my cell, lol so can't check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Great AFD for Gray this afternoon. Discusses the sharp cutoff between coastal and interior sections with this event. I think I'm in a decent spot in Interior Rockingham county ATTM. A tad colder would seal it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Everything goes colder and that trash goes warmer..Please everyone...do not give it on ounce of credibility. Euro/ens are in their lethal zone now the NAMs wheelhouse is like an eternity away, so yes. Still cannot totally dismiss a warmer outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 mike, I haven't been looking that closely at temps between 7-825 mb but if there is no warm taint, than u should get BOMB'D ...unless of course there is a mega death band that sets up to ur NW that leaves u in some subsidence screw zone Thanks. That's great for someone who can't see anybhing (and hardly read anything) in his Phine to hear. Put that death and overhead please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro very cold... NAM very warm. I'd say consensus with a lean toward Euro is the way to go. Haven't looked in depth at anything since I'm a bit busy today at home but I think a good thump of +SN for HFD/TOL over to a period of +PL and then eventually rain/dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Mikes drunk off diet coke again based on that message. Hopefully nam is off but I think the handling of ml center is key wrt to that. Does the nam's warm mid levels jive w its handling of mlc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 New GYX map wow, look at that sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro looks like 4-7" front end thump at bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 They look pretty torched...but someone the other day said certain members were skewing the mean. There's some torch members, but the ptype algorithm only has an effect on the snow probs.For the weenies concerned that I am worried about the NAM, I'm not yet. My last post was 2 different thoughts. I do think some are spiking a 12"+ a little early whether the NAM was cold or not. The NAM blowing was a separate thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Part 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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