ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Great map, I'd probably add another 14-18" sliver in favored areas of Vermont given upslope. Yeah, I didn't get hyper local on that map...I'd probably add it near Stowe on the east slope of the greens, and maybe from your way up through Walden. And maybe another little spot from Burke northward into Newark. Also wouldn't surprise me if St. J got like 9", while you get like 14"+ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It looks like for the forecast here...the 12z NAM is still the warm outlier, though it did cool off enough to give about 4" on the front. The GFS looks like about 8-10" and the Ukie/GGEM are similar, but even a hair colder. I was actually how surprised how cold the RGEM was. Usually that model can be amped and warm, but it wasn't at 12z. Pretty nasty forecast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I have to worry....it's my nature when it comes to snow. But seriously, if you are 2+ on the GFS then I am probabaly at least 1.75. That is the Euro, NAM and GFS that are 1.5-2+. That is the best consistent qpf signal I remember seeing across several models. Suggests a very high upside for someone, probably near you or the foothills ne of me. Overall the qpf would seem to indicate a 12-24 range depending upon whether we mix. Wouldn't you think good ratios for at least half the storm? The antecedant cold is not bad. If we get a good deform band late in the storm that would improve ratios. Also sustained 20-25 with gusts to 40 or 45 is borderline blizzard conditions. We are right on the edge of a storm close to Jan 2011. Fingers crossed. You think I'll taint in Thornton? Pretty pathetic to most folks, but you guys can prolly understand it's these systems that convinced me to take out a mortgage on my house and build the cabin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Lots of cold models for the duration out there, NAM and GFS seem to be warmer than most and even GFS isn't warm. This is going to have some very wintry tricks up it's sleeves no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Lots of cold models for the duration out there, NAM and GFS seem to be warmer than most and even GFS isn't warm. This is going to have some very wintry tricks up it's sleeves no doubt What are you locking in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You think I'll taint in Thornton? Pretty pathetic to most folks, but you guys can prolly understand it's these systems that convinced me to take out a mortgage on my house and build the cabin. If you taint up there then I do down here for sure. Let's hope not but I think it's gonna be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Thanks Jeff. Take pics! Will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What are you locking in? Nothing yet..but more than 1-3 and then 40's with rain like some have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What are you locking in? 6-10 far nw ct 4-8 my hood and nw 2-5 rest of state nw of 84 1-2 south of 84 except ne ct where 84 goes n 2-4 there...I say 4 for Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah, I didn't get hyper local on that map...I'd probably add it near Stowe on the east slope of the greens, and maybe from your way up through Walden. And maybe another little spot from Burke northward into Newark. Also wouldn't surprise me if St. J got like 9", while you get like 14"+ lol Yes, I could totally see that differential happening, especially if you add in upslope. It may even be a wider disparity if you add in upslope, in fact BTV did not even depict Thursday night upslope in their totals and we could see another 3-6" from that. Sorry you are not up here for this one, but I sense there will be others this winter given the nice pattern that is setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I like this 12z GFS run ... not so much for any devils lurking in the details on this first system attempting to engineer disappointment, but the overall theme of repetitive events - seems there's about an ~ 3.5 D periodicity between 3 or 4 events right out to D15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Latest thoughts. Agreed whole-heartedly for up here. The kicker for us to get more is what happens with that banding on the NW side. 12z GFS continues to show that lingering band mixed with upslope NW flow on the backside. You can see the last couple QPF panels linger that 0.1-0.25" around northern VT, so that's the NW flow signal. Otherwise, widespread 8-14" with the 8" in the downslope areas of NEK and the 14" on the east slope of the Spine up and down the RT 100 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Agreed whole-heartedly for up here. The kicker for us to get more is what happens with that banding on the NW side. 12z GFS continues to show that lingering band mixed with upslope NW flow on the backside. You can see the last couple QPF panels linger that 0.1-0.25" around northern VT, so that's the NW flow signal. Otherwise, widespread 8-14" with the 8" in the downslope areas of NEK and the 14" on the east slope of the Spine up and down the RT 100 corridor. Did i ever tell you how much i like the color cerise.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Did i ever tell you how much i like the color cerise.............lol Somebody near us is getting 20". Dendrite weenied me, but I wager we see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Somebody near us is getting 20". Dendrite weenied me, but I wager we see that. I would not doub't it,18-20" at 9-10:1 ratios if there is no taint, Whats your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z Ukie precip.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS snow map pretty robust http://twitter.com/cshabbott/status/283619219365564416/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS snow map pretty robust http://twitter.com/c...5564416/photo/1 Thats like 4-8" for me...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z Ukie precip.......... Nice track there, would love to see the previous frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That map would be 8-12 for me just north of New Haven (home for the holidays) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I would not doub't it,18-20" at 9-10:1 ratios if there is no taint, Whats your call? I locked double digits earlier this morning ... will wait for Euro, but figure a 12-16 range is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nice track there, would love to see the previous frames. Her you go Joe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I locked double digits earlier this morning ... will wait for Euro, but figure a 12-16 range is likely. I am going 10-14" 1st call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Her you go Joe.. Thanks! That would make a lot of people very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Depending on which source I check I'm getting anywhere from 1-3" to 12+...gotta love storms like these for areas around the pike barely outside of 495 like me...going to be very, very close here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Does that snag some of the weekend stuff? Hard to see date on phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Call me Grinch, but when rain is involved, I don't give a crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Does that snag some of the weekend stuff? Hard to see date on phone my bad, it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 thought it looked high, but matched up with Blizz's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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