ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't know... nothing really shows 6+ for CT (maybe save far NW hills) so I'm not sure what people are expecting. Looks like a thump of S+ to sleet to rain/dry slot. Yeah, I like 4-7" for Litchfield cty and MA border, 2-4" DXR-HFD-IJD, 1-2" south, rain coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't know. Not sure much of state warns above 32 With a track straddling the coast I disagree. Most of the state will probably warm above 32 prior to the ugly dry slot that takes over. I don't see icing as a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think if I had to make a call here I would go with 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah but that's apples and oranges. We're within 36 hours of the storm's onset and we've really locked in the track. I posted yesterday with a track like this places along and south of the Pike are playing with fire. A small jog west and we're in a lot of trouble. No real room for error with a storm that's inland over NJ. We introduce all sorts of issues into the equation including dry slotting, a warming boundary layer, and plenty of mid level taint. This to me looks like a 3-6 kind of deal at the most for N CT.... with a weenie band of 6-10 to the north over the Rt 2 corridor in Mass? Is that why I have a wsw for 4-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah but that's apples and oranges. We're within 36 hours of the storm's onset and we've really locked in the track. I posted yesterday with a track like this places along and south of the Pike are playing with fire. A small jog west and we're in a lot of trouble. No real room for error with a storm that's inland over NJ. We introduce all sorts of issues into the equation including dry slotting, a warming boundary layer, and plenty of mid level taint. This to me looks like a 3-6 kind of deal at the most for N CT.... with a weenie band of 6-10 to the north over the Rt 2 corridor in Mass? The comment was really made because some were disappointed by the snow totals it looks like they will receive when a few days ago this was all going down the catch basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think if I had to make a call here I would go with 4-8". Yep, I went 4-7" southern ORH, 7-10" northern ORH, with 10-14" over the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Not to worried mark, We may still see these subtle shifts until up to the event I have to worry....it's my nature when it comes to snow. But seriously, if you are 2+ on the GFS then I am probabaly at least 1.75. That is the Euro, NAM and GFS that are 1.5-2+. That is the best consistent qpf signal I remember seeing across several models. Suggests a very high upside for someone, probably near you or the foothills ne of me. Overall the qpf would seem to indicate a 12-24 range depending upon whether we mix. Wouldn't you think good ratios for at least half the storm? The antecedant cold is not bad. If we get a good deform band late in the storm that would improve ratios. Also sustained 20-25 with gusts to 40 or 45 is borderline blizzard conditions. We are right on the edge of a storm close to Jan 2011. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 OT, but GFS looks solid for 12/30 at h108 for CT/RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 We've entered the lazy part of the XMass day after presents and before dinner ... Merry Christmas to all! Well, what do we have here ... It appears that lacking some intensity is problematic here for those that prefer a white solution. This system doesn't make it much below 990mb at deepest pass, and the 538-type DM height core is also fairly midland in, intensity. If there is a "high impact" anything from this system, it may come from its origin being deep S, so it will pull some decent PWAT air along with it - moderate intensity in an anomalous PWAT, yeah, could be good for 10-14" for all that remain snow. If this thing was strong in the mid levels, there is definitely close enough to marginal that it would overcome and probably collapse the column as the low went by underneath. Just doesn't seem the models are indicating as much dynamical processing of the atmosphere. That said ... I still have a feeling that with the 500mb vort track squarely S of the region, there is some room for hope/nowcast surprises here. I did see the Euro run from 00z and it appeared actually to be more favorable than the NAM/GFS blend - which, looking NWS' winter storm watch layout, it appears they must be going with the latter. We shall see.... I tell you what though, if the fields verify like the NAM/GFS blend this is pretty much opening a wound and pouring salt directly into it for the winter weather enthusiasts being so patient through last year, and so far, suffering a disappointing run up to XMas when originallly the month's vision might have had more promise. Peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Im thinking about 75% of the QPF around here is going to fall as snow. That first 6 hours is hellecious. We'll likely dryslot pretty quick after we flip to IP/ZR, Could be a decent snowfall gradient from south of the pike to around Princeton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The comment was really made because some were disappointed by the snow totals it looks like they will receive when a few days ago this was all going down the catch basin oh lol I gotcha. Yeah it looks like a thump and I think people in N CT can reasonably expect a bit of snow. If it's 1-3 or 3-6 I'm not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Im thinking about 75% of the QPF around here is going to fall as snow. That first 6 hours is hellecious. We'll likely dryslot pretty quick after we flip to IP/ZR, Could be a decent snowfall gradient from south of the pike to around Princeton. Yeah Will it appears that that's where the gradient will set up with mid level warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 With a track straddling the coast I disagree. Most of the state will probably warm above 32 prior to the ugly dry slot that takes over. I don't see icing as a concern. Imo NW of iJD stays 32 or below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yep, I went 4-7" southern ORH, 7-10" northern ORH, with 10-14" over the NH border. Yup, I agree. I could see my house getting 3" or 10" depending on any subtle shifts in the next 36 hours, but 4-8" is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I have to worry....it's my nature when it comes to snow. But seriously, if you are 2+ on the GFS then I am probabaly at least 1.75. That is the Euro, NAM and GFS that are 1.5-2+. That is the best consistent qpf signal I remember seeing across several models. Suggests a very high upside for someone, probably near you or the foothills ne of me. Overall the qpf would seem to indicate a 12-24 range depending upon whether we mix. Wouldn't you think good ratios for at least half the storm? The antecedant cold is not bad. If we get a good deform band late in the storm that would improve ratios. Also sustained 20-25 with gusts to 40 or 45 is borderline blizzard conditions. We are right on the edge of a storm close to Jan 2011. Fingers crossed. Even if we are at 9-10:1 its a big dump if we don't end up pinging some, My 1st call is gong to be in the 10-14" range i am thinking until i see the rest of the 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Im thinking about 75% of the QPF around here is going to fall as snow. That first 6 hours is hellecious. We'll likely dryslot pretty quick after we flip to IP/ZR, Could be a decent snowfall gradient from south of the pike to around Princeton. 5" here and 12" in Princeton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This storm has major bust potential on either side, ticks se and its much snowier, at the same time a little further west and those east winds will just torch the mid levels and BL pretty far inland with that fetch. Tough call for the pros. What are SSTS running at, probably will play a huge role in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Im thinking about 75% of the QPF around here is going to fall as snow. That first 6 hours is hellecious. We'll likely dryslot pretty quick after we flip to IP/ZR, Could be a decent snowfall gradient from south of the pike to around Princeton. I have a bit more latitude than even Princeton, so I should do ok, despite the BL eventually going to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Latest thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Imo NW of iJD stays 32 or below meteorology not weenieology. It's possible but this really isn't a storm for CT/RI/SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well, can't complain GFS keeps us frozen for most of the heavy precip. Pinging or drizzle followed by dry slot. Looks to shut the precip off pretty quickly after the initial thump in W. MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This storm has major bust potential on either side, ticks se and its much snowier, at the same time a little further west and those east winds will just torch the mid levels and BL pretty far inland with that fetch. Tough call for the pros. What are SSTS running at, probably will play a huge role in this storm. 45ish in LIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 meteorology not weenieology. It's possible but this really isn't a storm for CT/RI/SE Mass. In all honesty you don't see an ice threat here? Nws was bullish with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Latest thoughts. Good map Ed, That was my thoughts here, 10-14" here and 14-18" foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Good map Ed, That was my thoughts here, 10-14" here and 14-18" foothills Thanks Jeff. Take pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 In all honesty you don't see an ice threat here? Nws was bullish with it There's a better chance up your way. Yeah, maybe some glaze but nothing exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 meteorology not weenieology. It's possible but this really isn't a storm for CT/RI/SE Mass. It's a medium impact type of storm with 75% frozen precip for majority of state. I also think we change back to snow on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Latest thoughts. Great map, I'd probably add another 14-18" sliver in favored areas of Vermont given upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 There's a better chance up your way. Yeah, maybe some glaze but nothing exciting. Ya, hope the llvl cold holds * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Noyes pretty conservative with the Wed/Thurs storm: ============== @MattNoyesNECN: Snow showers for some this morning, eyes are on Wed night/Thu storm, several inches of snow in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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