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December 27/28 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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Let's say you take 500mb (perferably you want a total 1000-100mb average though) zonal winds and use defined layers that are statistically significant, perhaps 70-50N (60N) and 40-20N (30N) as benchmarks. The greatest -AO months should have solid negative contours across 60N and solid westerly contours across 30N. Looking at 2012, you see that about half the NH doesn't meet criteria which would increase the AO to about neutral. Guys Im just eyeballing and speculating so don't kill me here like I'm doing actual research. lol

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Let's say you take 500mb (perferably you want a total 1000-100mb average though) zonal winds and use defined layers that are statistically significant, perhaps 70-50N (60N) and 40-20N (30N) as benchmarks. The greatest -AO months should have solid negative contours across 60N and solid westerly contours across 30N. Looking at 2012, you see that about half the NH doesn't meet criteria which would increase the AO to about neutral. Guys Im just eyeballing and speculating so don't kill me here like I'm doing actual research. lol

You don't even have to go that far. Just fire up the H5 plots like Will did. I don't care what the value is, those maps say it all.

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Agree....just have to hope for a decent front end dump.

Obviously the more north and the more west you are, the better the front end dump will be. So while you and I are both coastal-plain effed, you will likely see a better accumulation than me. On the other hand, the Leigh Valley-Poconos should beat us both. I can't wait for the dry slot and sleety mess down here in NJ!

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You don't even have to go that far. Just fire up the H5 plots like Will did. I don't care what the value is, those maps say it all.

Yeah, they do now but don't you want a more accurate data set? Are 1000mb anomalies the best way to measure annular modes? Wouldn't a deep-layer wind anomaly from 20°N to the pole be more reflective of blocking? I think if wind was somehow incorporated or if the analysis became deep layer, the AO index this month (along with the other wannabes) would be closer to neutral. I think a neutral AO best describes what is going on, not a -AO.

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Yeah, they do now but don't you want a more accurate data set? Are 1000mb anomalies the best way to measure annular modes? Wouldn't a deep-layer wind anomaly from 20°N to the pole be more reflective of blocking? I think if wind was somehow incorporated or if the analysis became deep layer, the AO index this month (along with the other wannabes) would be closer to neutral. I think a neutral AO best describes what is going on, not a -AO.

I agree fully. To be honest, I don't look at those AO/NAO forecasts from CPC all that much....I'm a visual person, so I tend to gravitate to looking at the H5 pattern on all three ensembles. I get all I need from that. However, if they wanted a more accurate depiction, I think your method would certainly help in calculating a more true AO.

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Same model that brought us days and days of snow this weekend with the ULL, a nice Xmas snowstorm...etc.

When Kev makes his first cars off the road due to heavy southerly winds post on the 26th we'll know which model prevailed.

Didn't you enjoy your 96 hours of snow last weekend?

Anyway I do feel good about this one having a legit wintry appeal somewhere in NE. Not sure if it's up north or down here yet but we'll see.

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Didn't you enjoy your 96 hours of snow last weekend?

Anyway I do feel good about this one having a legit wintry appeal somewhere in NE. Not sure if it's up north or down here yet but we'll see.

I think you are also heading up north to ski...we'll be fine up there I think regardless.

About to hit 50 here, winter in Roanoke continues.

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