ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS looks fugly with closed ULL over KY at 120h. There's a vortex up in Quebec though that is providing good confluence...this will end up redeveloping to the east pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS looks fugly with closed ULL over KY at 120h. looks better by hr 138 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Let's say you take 500mb (perferably you want a total 1000-100mb average though) zonal winds and use defined layers that are statistically significant, perhaps 70-50N (60N) and 40-20N (30N) as benchmarks. The greatest -AO months should have solid negative contours across 60N and solid westerly contours across 30N. Looking at 2012, you see that about half the NH doesn't meet criteria which would increase the AO to about neutral. Guys Im just eyeballing and speculating so don't kill me here like I'm doing actual research. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yeah, Ends up being decent up here as it moves off to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Let's say you take 500mb (perferably you want a total 1000-100mb average though) zonal winds and use defined layers that are statistically significant, perhaps 70-50N (60N) and 40-20N (30N) as benchmarks. The greatest -AO months should have solid negative contours across 60N and solid westerly contours across 30N. Looking at 2012, you see that about half the NH doesn't meet criteria which would increase the AO to about neutral. Guys Im just eyeballing and speculating so don't kill me here like I'm doing actual research. lol You don't even have to go that far. Just fire up the H5 plots like Will did. I don't care what the value is, those maps say it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 There's a vortex up in Quebec though that is providing good confluence...this will end up redeveloping to the east pretty quickly. But what's stopping them from phasing and the system running up into the Hudson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Agree....just have to hope for a decent front end dump. Obviously the more north and the more west you are, the better the front end dump will be. So while you and I are both coastal-plain effed, you will likely see a better accumulation than me. On the other hand, the Leigh Valley-Poconos should beat us both. I can't wait for the dry slot and sleety mess down here in NJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 not bad.. would like it a bit further south for my area, but overall trends are holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Nice hit GFS toss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The confluence is key, It remains seperate here, forcing the dynamics and QG forcing more NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 not bad.. would like it a bit further south for my area, but overall trends are holding. It looks to me like we are converging (dangerous conclusion at day 6) on a hugger scenario....the EURO has come east, and the GFS is inching westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's actually a shift SE from the previous runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It looks to me like we are converging (dangerous conclusion at day 6) on a hugger scenario....the EURO has come east, and the GFS is inching westward. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's actually a shift SE from the previous runs of the GFS. My mistake. I haven't even been looking at the runs...just going off of what people post. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's actually a shift SE from the previous runs of the GFS. Yeah compared to 06z and 00z it was a tourch SE...compared to 18z yesterday, lol....that one whiffed Se at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's the GFS. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 My mistake. I haven't even been looking at the runs...just going off of what people post. Sorry. yeah, I guess when I say holding, I mean no big 200 miles shifts.. if the shift is 20-30 miles I don't consider it a big change at this range, if we are inside 60 hrs then I think those shifts make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's the GFS. Toss it. But it gives a snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You don't even have to go that far. Just fire up the H5 plots like Will did. I don't care what the value is, those maps say it all. Yeah, they do now but don't you want a more accurate data set? Are 1000mb anomalies the best way to measure annular modes? Wouldn't a deep-layer wind anomaly from 20°N to the pole be more reflective of blocking? I think if wind was somehow incorporated or if the analysis became deep layer, the AO index this month (along with the other wannabes) would be closer to neutral. I think a neutral AO best describes what is going on, not a -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Guys, when you have 850 mb temps below freezing and want to look to other layers to see if it would be too warm to support snow actually reaching the sfc what is the best to use? Do you just have to look at the thicknesses in the other layers of the atmosphere or am I making it too simple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS is a snowstorm....waiting on the GEM, UK and EURO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's the GFS. Toss it. Same model that brought us days and days of snow this weekend with the ULL, a nice Xmas snowstorm...etc. When Kev makes his first cars off the road due to heavy southerly winds post on the 26th we'll know which model prevailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yeah, they do now but don't you want a more accurate data set? Are 1000mb anomalies the best way to measure annular modes? Wouldn't a deep-layer wind anomaly from 20°N to the pole be more reflective of blocking? I think if wind was somehow incorporated or if the analysis became deep layer, the AO index this month (along with the other wannabes) would be closer to neutral. I think a neutral AO best describes what is going on, not a -AO. I agree fully. To be honest, I don't look at those AO/NAO forecasts from CPC all that much....I'm a visual person, so I tend to gravitate to looking at the H5 pattern on all three ensembles. I get all I need from that. However, if they wanted a more accurate depiction, I think your method would certainly help in calculating a more true AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Same model that brought us days and days of snow this weekend with the ULL, a nice Xmas snowstorm...etc. When Kev makes his first cars off the road due to heavy southerly winds post on the 26th we'll know which model prevailed. Didn't you enjoy your 96 hours of snow last weekend? Anyway I do feel good about this one having a legit wintry appeal somewhere in NE. Not sure if it's up north or down here yet but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Didn't you enjoy your 96 hours of snow last weekend? Anyway I do feel good about this one having a legit wintry appeal somewhere in NE. Not sure if it's up north or down here yet but we'll see. I think you are also heading up north to ski...we'll be fine up there I think regardless. About to hit 50 here, winter in Roanoke continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Another quick and dirty way to take a look at the NH annular mode ... just a time-latitude section 1000mb height anomaly: 500mb height anomaly: Supports a "negative AO" around the end of November into the start of December, but certainly not the last 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 this one could have quite a gradient from scooter's fanny to will's casa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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