40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 all of ct/ri s half of MA look to get under 4" to me Well, now you have changed it a little...now it's 4" as opposed to 3"...and there is plenty of real estate in sne n of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well, you've already upped your call and cut the geographical area in half Bold. that's most of sne... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 ratios are going to be low considering temp profiles and the fact that it's a moisture rich system with lots of supercooled droplets maybe you are talking about SNE but Chris (OceanWX) from the GYX office thought the snow growth layer looked good and that ratios would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 that's most of sne... I'd say half (since I include southern NH), but lets not get into that debate. But I would tend to agree with your call there, save for elevated areas of western CT, esp with that low heading SE it that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 maybe you are talking about SNE but Chris (OceanWX) from the GYX office thought the snow growth layer looked good and that ratios would be good. Ratios won't be that great if we see that much warming aloft. Mid levels seem to be trending warmer, but I haven't looked at a lot this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nothing shows that. Not even close The NWS says otherwise: PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/... WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... EXPECTING SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 10 INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH... MINOR ICING UP TO 0.25 INCHES AROUND THE MA TURNPIKE... RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1.25 INCHES FOR E/SE NEW ENGLAND... Granted we are not Eastern New England, but we are not north/west enough to stay all snow either. My guess is a nice dose of 35F rain that washes away all of the snow. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looks a bit west and a bit warmer through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ratios won't be that great if we see that much warming aloft. Mid levels seem to be trending warmer, but I haven't looked at a lot this morning. well but the ratios should be good for the front end, maybe they worsen thurs morn but then improve under a deform band late in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 LOCATIONS...ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. Pretty much in line with my thinking and that is specific to the three southern counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hellacious dump up here. Hopefully the BL works out. It is nearly 1/1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ratios won't be that great if we see that much warming aloft. Mid levels seem to be trending warmer, but I haven't looked at a lot this morning. 9-10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS is going to be pretty meh south of the Pike. Last night I said a few inches of snow to sleet and freezing rain for inland CT and I still think that's a pretty good call. Watch for sneaky warm layers that roll in with that kind of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looks a bit west and a bit warmer through 36 hours. looks slower to meUsing IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS is going to be pretty meh south of the Pike. Last night I said a few inches of snow to sleet and freezing rain for inland CT and I still think that's a pretty good call. Watch for sneaky warm layers that roll in with that kind of track. Spiking ball awfully early. Euro was colder. let's see what Euro does before spiking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 looks slower to me Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. You do real well up here. 6+ likely with this depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looks slower and a bit warmer up here...still a good front end dump though it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah GFS is meh here. Maybe 5-6" before a changeover. Not bad, but I was hoping for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You do real well up here. 6+ likely with this depiction. yeah nice dump before we warm upUsing IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z GFS big dump up here, Looks like it has shifted a couple ticks NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 REmember how cold thr GFS was six hours ago...it sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Spiking ball awfully early. Euro was colder. let's see what Euro does before spiking I don't know... nothing really shows 6+ for CT (maybe save far NW hills) so I'm not sure what people are expecting. Looks like a thump of S+ to sleet to rain/dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The amount of modeled qpf is up as well, Close to 2.00" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z GFS big dump up here, Looks like it has shifted a couple ticks NW look like a changeover? Euro is 1.5+ for both of us I think and NAM was 2+?. GFS in that same ballpark? I'm hoping heavy rates can cool the column and stave off the sleet. Allow a little sleet wouldn't be bad for the base building. The NW ticks are a little scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't know... nothing really shows 6+ for CT (maybe save far NW hills) so I'm not sure what people are expecting. Looks like a thump of S+ to sleet to rain/dry slot. Just a few days ago this was mostly a rain event for a lot of folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 look like a changeover? Euro is 1.5+ for both of us I think and NAM was 2+?. GFS in that same ballpark? I'm hoping heavy rates can cool the column and stave off the sleet. Allow a little sleet wouldn't be bad for the base building. The NW ticks are a little scary Not to worried mark, We may still see these subtle shifts until up to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't know... nothing really shows 6+ for CT (maybe save far NW hills) so I'm not sure what people are expecting. Looks like a thump of S+ to sleet to rain/dry slot. I don't know. Not sure much of state warns above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looking at the soundings and the midlevels are still below freezing here by 12z Thursday on the GFS, but the BL looks suspect by that point. So probably a pretty solid, solid dump. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't know. Not sure much of state warns above 32 GFS shows 850s below zero for much of inland ct during most of the heavy precip.. northern half of the state for all of the precip.. we have to now looks at surface and sneaky warm level at 700mb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Burbank going for 2-4" in Worcester. Very conservative. Euro had 8" pre changover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just a few days ago this was mostly a rain event for a lot of folks Yeah but that's apples and oranges. We're within 36 hours of the storm's onset and we've really locked in the track. I posted yesterday with a track like this places along and south of the Pike are playing with fire. A small jog west and we're in a lot of trouble. No real room for error with a storm that's inland over NJ. We introduce all sorts of issues into the equation including dry slotting, a warming boundary layer, and plenty of mid level taint. This to me looks like a 3-6 kind of deal at the most for N CT.... with a weenie band of 6-10 to the north over the Rt 2 corridor in Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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