powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 lol at all the various thoughts depending on where posters are... NAM looks awesome, NAM looks like crap, NAM looks colder and more snow, NAM is warmer and quicker change over, NAM looks odd, Its definitely SE and colder, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Man, the NAM blows chunks...pray it's wrong. I'm thinking 3-6" for me. 4-8" for you. Will wait till 12z to finish before going final too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAm look a bit SE to anyone? NAM is playing catch up trending colder and SE getting better for me and you.. still not good for our area, lets hope GFS holds ground or even trends colder, I fully expect NAM to keep on trending.. This has the potential to surprise many, as its not really being talked about in our area. If there are any trends back NW its game over for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It looks like ALY is thinking big time sleet contamination here in the Berkshires and they're riding the warmer NAM. Their map also doesn't match up well with BOX either. I'm thinking a colder solution for this area, provided today's data doesn't trend warmer. 06Z GFS still has me snow at 12Z Thursday, and looks to keep me snow for the duration of the event, albeit barely at the height of it. Merry Christmas everyone! I think that will bust--and I don't htink I'm wishcasting. Oh man the 12z NAM is full on pants tent up here. Wow. That strong ESE flow is going to crush us on the immediate east slope of the Spine. Resolution isn't high enough but I think on a much smaller grid we'd look similar to the east slopes of the Adirondacks. That long duration easterly flow is going to do some big time crush jobs on east facing slopes. A very pretty sight. Per Mitch's post above, I htink the contamination issues will be less than what Albany's currently thinking (not sure what Box's thoughts are yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 lol at all the various thoughts depending on where posters are... NAM looks awesome, NAM looks like crap, NAM looks colder and more snow, NAM is warmer and quicker change over, NAM looks odd, Its definitely SE and colder, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm thinking 3-6" for me. 4-8" for you. Will wait till 12z to finish before going final too. I'm going 6-10" and ignoring the NAM, unless the rest of the 12z suite caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 lol at all the various thoughts depending on where posters are... NAM looks awesome, NAM looks like crap, NAM looks colder and more snow, NAM is warmer and quicker change over, NAM looks odd, Its definitely SE and colder, etc. I'll jump on that train and say that it looks like the NW extent of the freezing 850 has come SE. I think it still sneaks past me for a three hours or so, but even that's close. I'm not sure what the status is with temps above that. But, I think it's an improvement for northern Mass areas (and clearly above there's not an issue). If anyone cares to text me a summary of temps and qpf placement for the rest of the 12z suite, please do--and thanks. 207-798-0799. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM is SN to PL to SN here. High impact event although the sleet would cut down on overly epic totals given the amount of QPF being spewed. We're finally beginning to see warm layers aloft in the H8-H7 layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Anyone want to opine on the Burlington VT area? I am sad they changed us to Rain/Snow mix for Thursday in the "forecast graphics", though the discussions don't mention it. Also Merry Xmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The center of the storm aloft on the NAM are certainly more south. It seems to be due to the fact the northern energy is weaker on this run. It just doesn't have much effect on the temperatures aloft, they still bake. Going to need a lot more than that to get snow further south. The prolonged onshore winds looking at those isobars is really a disaster for the coast unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It looks like 1-3" of slop here followed by buckets o' rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The center of the storm aloft on the NAM are certainly more south. It seems to be due to the fact the northern energy is weaker on this run. It just doesn't have much effect on the temperatures aloft, they still bake. Going to need a lot more than that to get snow further south. The prolonged onshore winds looking at those isobars is really a disaster for the coast unfortunately. Good post, the easterly fetch is brutal, this is potentially a damaging storm for the coast, with extremely serious impacts in western Long Island Sound, many beach communities are naked right now, totally exposed, this will be an impressive coastal flooding event down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GYX map. Not sure if this is the same that was leaked yesterday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think that will bust--and I don't htink I'm wishcasting. A very pretty sight. Per Mitch's post above, I htink the contamination issues will be less than what Albany's currently thinking (not sure what Box's thoughts are yet). I dont think one model showed amounts that low for the area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'll jump on that train and say that it looks like the NW extent of the freezing 850 has come SE. I think it still sneaks past me for a three hours or so, but even that's close. I'm not sure what the status is with temps above that. But, I think it's an improvement for northern Mass areas (and clearly above there's not an issue). If anyone cares to text me a summary of temps and qpf placement for the rest of the 12z suite, please do--and thanks. 207-798-0799. S NH stays AOB freezing for the duration or nudges to pingers for a time? Opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It looks like 1-3" of slop here followed by buckets o' rain. pretty much my call for most of sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GYX map. Not sure if this is the same that was leaked yesterday . Yes, That was Chris 2nd one after the Euro came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM is playing catch up trending colder and SE getting better for me and you.. still not good for our area, lets hope GFS holds ground or even trends colder, I fully expect NAM to keep on trending.. This has the potential to surprise many, as its not really being talked about in our area. If there are any trends back NW its game over for us. Well I'll never be all snow but snow to sig ice seems highly likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It looks like 1-3" of slop here followed by buckets o' rain. Nothing shows that. Not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 pretty much my call for most of sne western areas do well, the rest not so sure.Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 20-30 kt low level east flow is going to scour the low level cold pretty quickly... i don't see ice being much of an issue anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 If I only get 1-3 ill mail Forky a christmas present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Forky, plenty of places in sne are getting more than 3"...silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 lol at all the various thoughts depending on where posters are... NAM looks awesome, NAM looks like crap, NAM looks colder and more snow, NAM is warmer and quicker change over, NAM looks odd, Its definitely SE and colder, etc. I live in fort laudrdale but coming to stowe on saturday so missing the event but reaping the benefits so all is not lost. Same thing goes on at the tropical forums as the winter...posters location often dictates posters forecast, ha..its all good....i hope everyone gets crushed but i need MHT to receive my flight friday night. The 30th storm looks south so hoping for something next week, plenty of cold air in place which is a nice change from previous weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I was pretty shocked at Albanys take on the Berkshires, seemed a bit low to me, but they are obviously thinking lots of taint even there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I was pretty shocked at Albanys take on the Berkshires, seemed a bit low to me, but they are obviously thinking lots of taint even there. If i get 2" I will also mail Albany a Christmas present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Forky, plenty of places in sne are getting more than 3"...silly. all of ct/ri s half of MA look to get under 4" to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM is SN to PL to SN here. High impact event although the sleet would cut down on overly epic totals given the amount of QPF being spewed. We're finally beginning to see warm layers aloft in the H8-H7 layer. Brian what is your sense of how this will play out given storms like this in the past? Seems like we are on the edge between a nice heay 8-12 inch storm followed by sleet or a 12-18+ storm. Does the NAM play out too warm up here usually vs. the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 all of ct/ri s half of MA look to get under 4" to me Well, you've already upped your call and cut the geographical area in half Bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Raleighwx/Huffman's page is all out of whack with the GFS... pages and time all out of order.. anyone else getting that for certain products? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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