DomNH Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hesitant to lock in anything more than a few inches still. We've been burned by the model shift this season do far. In our favor: CAD has been strong over NH in earlier events Given the way the Euro and GFS have looked for the past few runs, I think it's safe to think at least low-end warning level at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Interesting HPC track map... why on earth is the F48 cluster over the Delmarva but they placed the low over West Virginia? Also, what's with the cluster at F72 over ALB area, lol. seems the models have been showing a surface low several hundred miles to the east of the Upper level Low, and this paricular time frame show where the ULL is on one side of the Apps, and the the surface is on the other. then the ULL transfers to the position of the surface low in the next time frame. the mountains dont allow the surface low and the ULL to be in the same place. i don't know if you can get a vertically stacked low on top of the mts. I am no met, but this is why apps runners in the purest sense are soo rare i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 All models really howl the winds along the coast. Pretty impressive LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 All models really howl the winds along the coast. Pretty impressive LLJ. worried about coastal flooding and some wind damage along the ct shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yup. I'd go higher. You easterners clean up on the qpf, and me ethinks hat'll more than make up for any tainting. Clearly, Scott, Jeff, and Eric are getting an awesome belated Christmas present! 24.9/23 How high would you go between Manchester-Portsmouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What a downslope component in the Hdson Valley. Look at the pressure fields on the NAM and SREFs and note how they look distorted near the Berks and Hudson Valley. That's the upslope/downslope couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hadn't watched any newscasts on this storm, but just did. Looking at the models, I figured I was good for at least 3-6" before taint, but many have me in mostly rain for the event? At least it's snowing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What a downslope component in the Hdson Valley. Look at the pressure fields on the NAM and SREFs and note how they look distorted near the Berks and Hudson Valley. That's the upslope/downslope couplet. Big CT valley shadow I think on this one. I'm concerned about some sig ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Big CT valley shadow I think on this one. I'm concerned about some sig ice Not sure you have to worry to be honest, unless the track jumps SE. Think erly flow will overwhelm most interior south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Not sure you have to worry to be honest, unless the track jumps SE. Think erly flow will overwhelm most interior south of the Pike. Not with that track we won;t warm..unless it comes inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Not with that track we won;t warm..unless it comes inland You may warm into the mid 30s, but I don't think ice will be a big concern there. You may have some, but erly flow should do it's work. It's possible I'm not giving your area enough respect, but I think near Will and north have a better shot of holding onto the cold longer because of their latitude and wind trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You may warm into the mid 30s, but I don't think ice will be a big concern there. You may have some, but erly flow should do it's work. It's possible I'm not giving your area enough respect, but I think near Will and north have a better shot of holding onto the cold longer because of their latitude and wind trajectory. I think Will is 95% snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Time to head north, ski country is going to get plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 My guess us that I'll get up to about 37*....the e winds owed to the system initially gaining so much latitude will ultimately kill my BL. Still think 6-10" before rain, and perhaps a bit of sleet, but I'll await 12z suite before making final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It looks like ALY is thinking big time sleet contamination here in the Berkshires and they're riding the warmer NAM. Their map also doesn't match up well with BOX either. I'm thinking a colder solution for this area, provided today's data doesn't trend warmer. 06Z GFS still has me snow at 12Z Thursday, and looks to keep me snow for the duration of the event, albeit barely at the height of it. Merry Christmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 ratios are going to be low considering temp profiles and the fact that it's a moisture rich system with lots of supercooled droplets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't see how the cf remains near rt 128....06z GFS is a bit too cold...that will make 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm traveling somewhere towards the jackpot for sure. Maybe Naples Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM is coming iin similar at 850 compared to 6z, but still slower than global guidance at bringing in the front end thump. Obviously that has sig. impacts on accumulations in the battle zone around the pike. I haven't looked at soundings so not sure if it shows a warm layer above or below 850 to see where the sleet line will be. To me it appears the early part of the run (30-36 hr) trended a little bit toward global guidance in holding in the cold a bit longer before the warmth moves further north than the global guidance around hrs 42-54. I'm leaning toward the globals on this but both solutions appear credible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 ratios are going to be low considering temp profiles and the fact that it's a moisture rich system with lots of supercooled droplets 10:1 at best....but with so much QPF, thats's all you need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 ratios are going to be low considering temp profiles and the fact that it's a moisture rich system with lots of supercooled droplets Agreed, would you say maybe 8:1 or 10:1 for CNE/SNE with maybe higher ratios 10:1 - 15:1 up in NNE? Looks like there should be really good ratios in the outer deform band with upper levels starting at around -5C and getting to -10C toward the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Oh man the 12z NAM is full on pants tent up here. Wow. That strong ESE flow is going to crush us on the immediate east slope of the Spine. Resolution isn't high enough but I think on a much smaller grid we'd look similar to the east slopes of the Adirondacks. That long duration easterly flow is going to do some big time crush jobs on east facing slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 6z GFS looks about identical to the coldest 12z run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAm look a bit SE to anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Man, the NAM blows chunks...pray it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAm look a bit SE to anyone? Yes SE and colder, 850s don't warm-up nearly as fast this run.. Looks like we have to watch out for 700mb warming as well looking at the extractions from the GFS earlier for you, you looked all snow until about .8"qpf however 700mb was close to going above freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM looks odd to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just looking at soundings around the area a bit, the warmest layer is at around 800mb and changes over up to S VT and SNH to IP around hr 51, but it cools again after hr 54 and remains snow thereafter. N MA and around ORH are IP/ZR pretty early on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Holy Mackerel NAM absolutely crushes NNE! Pack the bags, I'm heading north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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