ericnh Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 all tv mets saying rain all the way to concord nh with only like 4 to 6 inches of snow here in southern nh? what are they looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro/ens mean look warmer than the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro/ens mean look warmer than the 12z run didnt it show like a foot here in southern nh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hvy hvy snow incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 all tv mets saying rain all the way to concord nh with only like 4 to 6 inches of snow here in southern nh? what are they looking at? I'm still so new to the area that I'm not familiar with the TV mets' style but I'm guessing they are taking the conservative approach at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Is that not 3 days in a row with us Jeff and Eric in a zone of 1.5 or more on at least 2 of the models? 12-18 with lolls higher seems quite doable....although these things don't always work out that way. Yes to the bolded. We're still a couple days out too. 6z GFS looks like a big hit with the H7 low tracking "under" us. Even if we end up getting some taint it will be after a decent thump of snow. It's early for weenies to be throwing around high ends of 18-20" though. Only Kevin has experience with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 LOL to 2.00" QPF from MHT-PSM. If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Where are you located? (Apologize for the newb questions) I'm out in Shelburne, MA which is in western Franklin County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 At least there's model support for 20". Rev would be chucking 30 if he lived in NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yes, Mike, inland areas look to get crushed - hoping for a weenie 20" but that would likely be a tad north. Even the immediate coast gets a good thump before NCP. I don't think 9-14 for you is bullish at all ... seems quite reasonable and I suspect you'll verify on the high end. Well, I'm feeling pretty decent with respect to temp profile. I think the limiting factor for out here will primarily be--use guessed it--QPF placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yes to the bolded. We're still a couple days out too. 6z GFS looks like a big hit with the H7 low tracking "under" us. Even if we end up getting some taint it will be after a decent thump of snow. It's early for weenies to be throwing around high ends of 18-20" though. Only Kevin has experience with that. Yes but it is a multi day signal. and it is less than 2 days out now. And....I'm a weenie so I reserve the right to go high. Kevin would be at lollies to 30 by now and I'm capping that at 24. I do think there will be 24 somewhere in central NH into Western ME. east wind anomoly of 5sd? Ratios are a factor. If we get deform snows that will be 15+ in the last part of the storm. I don't think this is a paste bomb up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Interesting HPC track map... why on earth is the F48 cluster over the Delmarva but they placed the low over West Virginia? Also, what's with the cluster at F72 over ALB area, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'll take the old school ETA QPF please... lol. I do like how a bunch of SREF members have that heavy axis into this region, while a lot also keep it NW of here. The east wind shadowing off the Whites is messing with some of the N.VT QPF on some models. No doubt the NEK suffers in this set-up but strong east wind will help here on the east slope of the Spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Have to admit, a little bummed out this morning, no snow last night and upton is calling for all rain here not even a snowflake to start. At least I have a high wind watch in effect:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Does only 3" in Portland sound right (just heard that on WCSH). Is it really gong to warm up that much here in the Scarborugh/Portland/So.Portland area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Have to admit, a little bummed out this morning, no snow last night and upton is calling for all rain here not even a snowflake to start. At least I have a high wind watch in effect:) sorry about no snow on the drive down the merritt there was plenty of snow on trees.. hopefully you get some tomorrow.. I think you will at least see a little bit before the changeover.. 4km rpm shows a few hours of snow and sleet for everyone before rain.. do you get NEWS12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Does only 3" in Portland sound right (just heard that on WCSH). Is it really gong to warm up that much here in the Scarborugh/Portland/So.Portland area? Another conservative number. I believe the Portland area is included in the WSW so chances for 6+ are high I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Why does Northern Worcester CO have a WSW for 8-12 and ice while southern has nothing? Why wouldn't they put out something like 4-8 because it still covers WSW criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wow at this map...very VERY conservative. I have a VERY hard time believing ORH sees only 4".... https://o.twimg.com/1/proxy.jpg?t=FQQVBBgpaHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0cGljLmNvbS9zaG93L2xhcmdlL2JwN3cxci5qcGcUAhYAEgAEV2VMKrc_eY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Another conservative number. I believe the Portland area is included in the WSW so chances for 6+ are high I think Thanks for the reply. I wouldn't normally post an IMBY question but all the talk here, the maps ( even the GYX AFD) just didn't match this tv report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildcard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'd hate to ask a stupid question, so I apologize if this is one. How is the current location of the L compared to where it was supposed to be at this time, say 36-48 hours ago? Has it trended one way or the other? May be an irrelevant question, but just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't think you should be surprised by the conservative numbers so far. If after the full 12z suite things look the same I expect most pros will unleash. But, erroring on the side of caution has been the right play most of the time for the last year. Look at today for instance. Merry Xmas/Festivas/Happy Holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Perhaps this is a likely reason for no WSWatches South of the Pike. AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH MODEL FCST 2M TEMPS NOR MAV/MET/ MOS GUIDANCE.FOLLOWING CLOSELY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS...HAVE MODIFIED THE PRESENT MOSGUIDE FCST LOWER ANTICIPATING AN EVAP COOLING SETUP WITH SFC TEMPS COOLING TOWARDS THE WET BULB. AS WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE THIS COOL SEASON...THERE IS A MORE NLY COMPONENT OF SFC WINDS EMANATING FROM THE DEPARTING ARCTIC-ORIGIN SFC HIGH POORLY HANDLED BY EVEN NEAR- TERM FCST GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTIALLY COLD-AIR DAMMING PREVAILS RESULTING IN A COASTAL FRONT SETUP. WHILE THIS STORM IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN PRIOR EVENTS WITH A STRONGER ELY ONSHORE COMPONENT...AM CONFIDENT TO BELIEVE THAT THE WARM-MOIST TROWALING SIGNATURE IN A MAJORITY OF THE FCST GUIDANCE WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE LARGE COLD DOME INITIALLY DOWN TO A SFC SHALLOW COLD LAYER FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND LENDING TO A FREEZING RAIN SETUP AWAY FROM SHORELINES AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well looks like I'm gonna get crushed with the QPF. Won't be all snow, but still I think locking in 6-12'' is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Interesting HPC track map... why on earth is the F48 cluster over the Delmarva but they placed the low over West Virginia? Also, what's with the cluster at F72 over ALB area, lol. That's actually very weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildcard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Based on what I'm reading here, I'm a little surprised that my local news station AND Eric Fisher of TWC are both calling for rain changing to sleet/snow. Just find it so hard to believe with what many of you are discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't think you should be surprised by the conservative numbers so far. If after the full 12z suite things look the same I expect most pros will unleash. But, erroring on the side of caution has been the right play most of the time for the last year. Look at today for instance. Merry Xmas/Festivas/Happy Holidays Strongly agree with this. If guidance is the same this afternoon, forecasts should get more aggressive. Still time for adjustments both ways. I'm still feeling conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looks like it keeps the CF near 128. Makes sense with such a good high, but also the GFS keeps the low by ACK. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well looks like I'm gonna get crushed with the QPF. Won't be all snow, but still I think locking in 6-12'' is reasonable. Hesitant to lock in anything more than a few inches still. We've been burned by the model shift this season do far. In our favor: CAD has been strong over NH in earlier events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well looks like I'm gonna get crushed with the QPF. Won't be all snow, but still I think locking in 6-12'' is reasonable. Yup. I'd go higher. You easterners clean up on the qpf, and me ethinks hat'll more than make up for any tainting. Clearly, Scott, Jeff, and Eric are getting an awesome belated Christmas present! 24.9/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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