powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Odd that there's no WSW for all of SNE with the cold trend just inland holding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 huh? This makes no sense with WSW up. .WITH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH POSSIBLY STAYING A RAIN SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING. THINKING THIS WILL BE MAINLY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FROM EITHER LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OR ICE ACCRETION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah I thought most areas away from the coast would have one but it can always change Odd that there's no WSW for all of SNE with the cold trend just inland holding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 huh? Looks like an advisory was issued and then changed shortly after to a watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah I thought most areas away from the coast would have one but it can always change Just a very weird disco and forecast. I mean it's obvious now that areas just inland stay 32 or below. As is I'd get 4-7 then ice and we're like 36 hours away from start time. Oh well. Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Odd that there's no WSW for all of SNE with the cold trend just inland holding? Trends seem to be that most of us will be under a WSW in the next 24 hrs, save for the immediate coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Trends seem to be that most of us will be under a WSW in the next 24 hrs, save for the immediate coast? One would think so yes..but the days of Drag and Ekster are over...so we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NRN ORH is under a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NRN ORH is under a WSW. Yeah just odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY... /OVERALL/... updated now and makes more sense ...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SPECIFICS IN THE FCST... ...LIKELY TO BE CHANGES IN IMPACTS AND FORECASTED AMOUNTS... ...MAIN HAZARDS: WINTRY PRECIP...WINDS...COASTAL IMPACTS... THERE IS AGREEMENT OF AN INSIDE-RUNNER SFC LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK ALONG THE S COAST OF NEW ENGLAND COUPLED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROF BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WX FOR THE NERN CONUS CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY. BUT THERE STILL REMAINS NUANCES WITH RESPECT TO THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE SFC INTO THE MID- LVLS...COUPLED WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS PARENT TO THE TIMING OF THE LOW /THE 25.0Z NAM THE SLOWEST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS-ECMWF-CANADIAN CLOSELY CLUSTER AMONGST ONE ANOTHER/. WORTHY OF NOTE IS THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE /WHICH WAS INCREDIBLY HELPFUL OVER MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE FREEZING RAIN EVENT DECEMBER 16TH/. EVALUATING FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME DERIVED FROM THE 24.12Z GFS...THE TOP 5 ANALOGS /PREVIOUS EVENTS THAT CORROBORATE FAIRLY WELL TO THE ONCOMING STORM/ EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OF A FOOT OR MORE EXTENDING FROM ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS IN PA NEWD INTO MAINE...WITH A FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC EXTENDING NEWD INTO S NEW ENGLAND. WILL LEAN WITH THE FORECAST GRID OUTPUT IN A SIMILAR MANNER. /TEMPERATURES/... AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH MODEL FCST 2M TEMPS NOR MAV/MET/ MOS GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING CLOSELY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS...HAVE MODIFIED THE PRESENT MOSGUIDE FCST LOWER ANTICIPATING AN EVAP COOLING SETUP WITH SFC TEMPS COOLING TOWARDS THE WET BULB. AS WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE THIS COOL SEASON...THERE IS A MORE NLY COMPONENT OF SFC WINDS EMANATING FROM THE DEPARTING ARCTIC-ORIGIN SFC HIGH POORLY HANDLED BY EVEN NEAR- TERM FCST GUIDANCE. CONSEQUENTIALLY COLD-AIR DAMMING PREVAILS RESULTING IN A COASTAL FRONT SETUP. WHILE THIS STORM IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN PRIOR EVENTS WITH A STRONGER ELY ONSHORE COMPONENT...AM CONFIDENT TO BELIEVE THAT THE WARM-MOIST TROWALING SIGNATURE IN A MAJORITY OF THE FCST GUIDANCE WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THE LARGE COLD DOME INITIALLY DOWN TO A SFC SHALLOW COLD LAYER FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND LENDING TO A FREEZING RAIN SETUP AWAY FROM SHORELINES AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. /PRECIP TYPES/... BEGINNING AS SNOW...AS WARMER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE S COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS THE EXPECTATION FOR INITIAL SNOWS TO TRANSITION OVER TO A MIX WITH SLEET...THEN TO A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. ANTICIPATING A GRADUAL PROGRESSION SE TO NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ON BY /ONLY PORTIONS OF S NH AND W MA WILL REMAIN IN SOME SORT OF WINTRY PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THE EVENT/. WITH THE SYSTEMS EXIT...COLDER AIR DRAWN IN OUT OF THE NW SHOULD RESULT IN THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIP FROM RAIN TO SNOW. /PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/... ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...EXPECTING SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 10 INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH... ...MINOR ICING UP TO 0.25 INCHES AROUND THE MA TURNPIKE... ...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1.25 INCHES FOR E/SE NEW ENGLAND... MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FCST PRECIP AMOUNTS...BUT DO AGREE THAT THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW WILL SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP PARENT WITH THE THETAE TROWAL AXIS AND COUPLED WITH THE STRONGEST DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND DEEP-LYR ASCENT. INITIALLY OVER-SPREADING WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT...THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...WRAPPING WESTWARD WITH THE WARM-CONVEYOR BELT TOWARDS THE NWRN QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER AND EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS FOR SERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR INSTABILITY WRAPPING INWARD PARENT WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. IN LINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE...AM EXPECTING HEAVIEST SNOWS N/W...WITH BETTER ICE ACCUMS IN S-CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND /AROUND THE MA TURNPIKE/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Locking up double digits here. Merry Christmas to all :snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Locking up double digits here. Merry Christmas to all :snow: Merry Christmas--you clean up! I'm going somewhat bullish for here with a 9-14" call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 looks good for me ! 10 to 14"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas--you clean up! I'm going somewhat bullish for here with a 9-14" call at this point. Where are you located? (Apologize for the newb questions) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 looks good for me ! 10 to 14"!! Good luck, looks great over there! Hopefully east of you where I am at can hold on to the cold for most of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Odd that there's no WSW for all of SNE with the cold trend just inland holding? Seems they are following hpc snow potential. Hpc not showing much of sne in the greater than 4 inch zone. Same is happening down here . They put Sussex in watch but left our northern Morris .6z Gfs soundings show my area all snow through 42 with .75-1 inch qpf yet barley mention any snow for my area. Didnt check euro maps but earlier runs had me at 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas--you clean up! I'm going somewhat bullish for here with a 9-14" call at this point. Yes, Mike, inland areas look to get crushed - hoping for a weenie 20" but that would likely be a tad north. Even the immediate coast gets a good thump before NCP. I don't think 9-14 for you is bullish at all ... seems quite reasonable and I suspect you'll verify on the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 looks good for me ! 10 to 14"!! That jives well with BTV and GYX's maps... although this may be the one time I agree with Blizz that I'm really surprised there's no watch down in the Pike area and BOX's northern CT zones. BOX has always seemed to issue watches for "travel impact" even if it doesn't meet criteria, so even if they think it will fall short, I'm surprised during the holiday week there's no watch out. At the very least they'll go to an advisory in those areas southern areas anyway even for their forecasted amounts of snow/ice (as low as they are) so why not get the heads up out there early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 14 -18 here on the nws weenie map. believe it when I see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Is the GYX map up? I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 lol...wow at the euro run for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 several models now showing over a foot of snow from central mass northward not sure why BOX has not issued WSW further south! in fact here in southern nh a couple have us getting 12 to 18"!!! That would be sweet but I am thinking a foot is a safe bet at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 several models now showing over a foot of snow from central mass northward not sure why BOX has not issued WSW further south! in fact here in southern nh a couple have us getting 12 to 18"!!! That would be sweet but I am thinking a foot is a safe bet at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 several models now showing over a foot of snow from central mass northward not sure why BOX has not issued WSW further south! in fact here in southern nh a couple have us getting 12 to 18"!!! That would be sweet but I am thinking a foot is a safe bet at this point! Keeping expectations tempered still. 6" for interior SE NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hoping it slides a little more SE and we can pick up some more, but may be wish full thinking at this point; I guess I will take the 2-4 with cement on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 lol...wow at the euro run for here. Details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Details? Looks like all snow for us. I have the 1.50" line running RUT-BML-IWI. There's a 2.00" bubble from AFN-MHT-PSM. The rest of NNE is over 1.00". EC ens mean is a widesprea 1.00" with a 1.50" zone for SW ME, C to SE NH, and E MA. I just had to laugh at how much it was regurgitating out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looks like all snow for us. I have the 1.50" line running RUT-BML-IWI. There's a 2.00" bubble from AFN-MHT-PSM. The rest of NNE is over 1.00". EC ens mean is a widesprea 1.00" with a 1.50" zone for SW ME, C to SE NH, and E MA. I just had to laugh at how much it was regurgitating out. Is that not 3 days in a row with us Jeff and Eric in a zone of 1.5 or more on at least 2 of the models? 12-18 with lolls higher seems quite doable....although these things don't always work out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looks like all snow for us. I have the 1.50" line running RUT-BML-IWI. There's a 2.00" bubble from AFN-MHT-PSM. The rest of NNE is over 1.00". EC ens mean is a widesprea 1.00" with a 1.50" zone for SW ME, C to SE NH, and E MA. I just had to laugh at how much it was regurgitating out. lol ... nice. Enjoy the 20" paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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