nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It looks to me like about 3"....but yeah sfc temps are marginal. Big gradient there for sfc temps at 48h...it is torched by 54. I'd take 3" with this crappy set-up, that sounds like a decent front-end thump. I'm hoping for one last adjustment colder to put Westchester in the 4-8" category, but I doubt it happens. What is torching the surface so much? 850s are fine until just before 54 hours, but why is the surface getting so warm? East winds ahead of that primary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Thanks for reply will, the 128 area is really up in the air imo wrt snowfall totals due to the bl issues from the east winds. And we have a few posters in that area. This is a storm I would prob shoot myself while its snowing at rays and 35f hvy rain in wakefield,ma. I just fear with the primary so far nw initially the cp could torch b4 much front end thumpage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Thanks for reply will, the 128 area is really up in the air imo wrt snowfall totals due to the bl issues from the east winds. And we have a few posters in that area. This is a storm I would prob shoot myself while its snowing at rays and 35f hvy rain in wakefield,ma. I just fear with the primary so far nw initially the cp could torch b4 much front end thumpage I will melt if the 27th is 1 inch of slop and then the 30th is a miss or dusting while the cape picks up 5". Boston was a snow hole last year and I can't take another year with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'd take 3" with this crappy set-up, that sounds like a decent front-end thump. I'm hoping for one last adjustment colder to put Westchester in the 4-8" category, but I doubt it happens. What is torching the surface so much? 850s are fine until just before 54 hours, but why is the surface getting so warm? East winds ahead of that primary? Yeah pretty strong BL winds out of the east...at 48h you have a 996 low just SE of DC...its not offshore and it tracks over interior S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah pretty strong BL winds out of the east...at 48h you have a 996 low just SE of DC...its not offshore and it tracks over interior S NJ. In your opinion, can this continue to adjust east and give us more of a NE flow to lock in the cold from that high pressure? Or are we pretty much done with east trends and resigned to a small front-end snow down here before rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Happy holidays Jerry, I hope your going to enjoy them as much as i am, You deserve some of this along with scooter Back at you Jeff! I always enjoy the holidays....warm or cold. And this year it looks promising for the next few weeks. Let's see if you can pull a weenie 16-20 out of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 In your opinion, can this continue to adjust east and give us more of a NE flow to lock in the cold from that high pressure? Or are we pretty much done with east trends and resigned to a small front-end snow down here before rain? Some small adjustment could make a big difference, esp just inland. I think anyone near the coast is cooked...but you could go from 2 or 3" to 6" if it went SE a touch. at 48h you are like 32-33F while NYC is 40F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 im thinking 3 to 6 here then a little ice then rain.. few flakes so far tonight but nothing otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm expecting 2-4 in a several hour thump followed by taint and rain but not heavy rain. if we can keep the temps under 40-42 during the warm phase maybe I can have some snow otg the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Some small adjustment could make a big difference, esp just inland. I think anyone near the coast is cooked...but you could go from 2 or 3" to 6" if it went SE a touch. at 48h you are like 32-33F while NYC is 40F This storm seems like a classic NW suburbs event. I don't see much of any accumulation in NYC with strong east winds, a marginal antecedent airmass, and the urban heat island. On the other hand, some of the suburbs with a little latitude and minor elevation could get 3-6" of snow if we have a classic band of heavy precip ahead of the mix line, which often occurs with these SW flow events. Could be the same story in Boston where Logan airport is cooked but surrounding areas like Newton see a nice snowfall. It's been a while since we've dealt with this type of north and west system, but I see it here. I wonder how this affects the second system. The 12z ECM really wanted to sharpen up the trough axis and phase in stronger vorticity from the northern stream, while the 0z GFS and 0z ECM are more disjointed with the phase and drop the northern stream in too late. Definitely a close call, but do you think this system has any play on the weekend storm, Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Some small adjustment could make a big difference, esp just inland. I think anyone near the coast is cooked...but you could go from 2 or 3" to 6" if it went SE a touch. at 48h you are like 32-33F while NYC is 40F It just so happens that places roughly twenty miles west of NYC tend to start as snow and have a snowier outlook than the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This storm seems like a classic NW suburbs event. I don't see much of any accumulation in NYC with strong east winds, a marginal antecedent airmass, and the urban heat island. On the other hand, some of the suburbs with a little latitude and minor elevation could get 3-6" of snow if we have a classic band of heavy precip ahead of the mix line, which often occurs with these SW flow events. Could be the same story in Boston where Logan airport is cooked but surrounding areas like Newton see a nice snowfall. It's been a while since we've dealt with this type of north and west system, but I see it here. I wonder how this affects the second system. The 12z ECM really wanted to sharpen up the trough axis and phase in stronger vorticity from the northern stream, while the 0z GFS and 0z ECM are more disjointed with the phase and drop the northern stream in too late. Definitely a close call, but do you think this system has any play on the weekend storm, Will? Here is the temps at 48h...I drew in a red and orange line...the red is what is I estimate to be 33F and the orange is 40F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Here is the temps at 48h...I drew in a red and orange line...the red is what is I estimate to be 33F and the orange is 40F That's some serious cold not too far north of folks. Lots of deep cold to tap into up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Here is the temps at 48h...I drew in a red and orange line...the red is what is I estimate to be 33F and the orange is 40F Thanks for the detailed analysis, Will. A little hard to see, but it looks to me as if I'm in the mid 30s. However, my experience here being near the top of the town in a wooded area is that my surface temperatures tend to hold out longer than expected if 850s stay below 0C and snow flakes are still being produced with heavy precipitation falling. The BL warming overtakes NYC MUCH faster than my location. I could see staying snow until 54 hours if the precip is heavy enough...once you get to 32/32 with heavy snow you tend to stay there until your 850s warm a ton. It is going to be a close call though, and I definitely dread easterly flow in December... How are you seeing the second system, Will? KU material with that monster ridge out west and a 50/50 low in place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That's some serious cold not too far north of folks. Lots of deep cold to tap into up north. Its a good high, just don't quite have the right setup to tap into it...but it might be enough to give us a good storm...its in a good spot and guidance tends to under estimate our cold resistance when they are in favorable spots. That combined with the extreme height falls south of LI make me definitely stay on my toes for potential bustorama in a good direction...or at least a better trend...but certianly no guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well I stayed up past my expected bed time. Hopefully I won't sleep through any potential flakes tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Thanks for the detailed analysis, Will. A little hard to see, but it looks to me as if I'm in the mid 30s. However, my experience here being near the top of the town in a wooded area is that my surface temperatures tend to hold out longer than expected if 850s stay below 0C and snow flakes are still being produced with heavy precipitation falling. The BL warming overtakes NYC MUCH faster than my location. I could see staying snow until 54 hours if the precip is heavy enough...once you get to 32/32 with heavy snow you tend to stay there until your 850s warm a ton. It is going to be a close call though, and I definitely dread easterly flow in December... How are you seeing the second system, Will? KU material with that monster ridge out west and a 50/50 low in place? The maps are crude enough that you can't take them totally verbatim. Euro has excellent resolution, but it won't get everything right. It tends to underestimate CAD up here a little bit. So you are probably doing fine at 48h...a paste job, but then it torches after. Its def a setup where HPN would snow for several hours while NYC is 40F. 2nd system I haven't looked at that closely. It looks like it cetainly has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 went to bed at 945 woke up at 1245 and im wide awake alarm set for 4 me ftl.. hope you get some flakes in the am Well I stayed up past my expected bed time. Hopefully I won't sleep through any potential flakes tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Thundersnow somewhere in NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 6Z NAM is still rediculously slow...has it starting 9Z Thursday when the EC and GFS have already dropped close to 1" qpf. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 gfs is going to have a good front end dump again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 6zgfs is colder and way better for here and alot of other places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS also has a real heavy QPF area, probably related to low level frontogenesis like a CF across far NE MA and SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Im guessing we see winter storm watches fly this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looks like it keeps the CF near 128. Makes sense with such a good high, but also the GFS keeps the low by ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 we were left out of the watch here but I guess that could still change im guessing they are going with high end advisory here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS also has a real heavy QPF area, probably related to low level frontogenesis like a CF across far NE MA and SE NH. High QPF for SE NH but the question is going to be how much of that is frozen vs liquid. GYX with WSWatch up for general 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 503 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... .AN APPROACHING STORM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL START OFF AS SNOW BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX THEN TO RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE STORM SLIDES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING THE WORST OF THE WINTRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 10 INCHES ENDING THURSDAY AND LIGHT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAZ002>004-008-009-026-NHZ011-012-015-251815- /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0003.121227T0000Z-121228T0000Z/ WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH- WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AYER...JAFFREY... KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE 503 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES... ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. * IMPACTS...ANTICIPATED WINTER WEATHER WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR UNTREATED SURFACES. IN AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW...VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This makes no sense with WSW up. .WITH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH POSSIBLY STAYING A RAIN SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING. THINKING THIS WILL BE MAINLY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT FROM EITHER LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OR ICE ACCRETION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Winter Storm Watch up and early guess by BTV is 14-18 inches in this area. Gotta remember that could be like 8-12 inches synoptic snow, but once winds go NW with a low in the Gulf of Maine, we'll probably tack on another 3-6" of high ratio orographic fluff. We may have less QPF but once it all winds down end up just as much snow with the orographic response on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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