Amped Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 RGEM thump GGEM thump. Heaviest rates shown along I84. By 60 hrs it's rain even in the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 RGEM thump GGEM thump. Heaviest rates shown along I84. By 60 hrs it's rain even in the Berks. I would be skeptical of plain rain in the Berkshires with -2C 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I would be skeptical of plain rain in the Berkshires with -2C 850 temps. Don't think it would be this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Those r/s maps are terrible. Don't they tend to overextend the actual rain/ snow line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't believe they are very accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Those r/s maps are terrible. Don't they tend to overextend the actual rain/ snow line? Yes...probably because the GGEM cannot resolve BL temps. It has the Berkshire sat like 37-38F and rain with -2C 850 temps and a sfc low near ACK...not a chance, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Those r/s maps are terrible. Don't they tend to overextend the actual rain/ snow line? I would assume the rain/snow line might be a snow/sleet ZR instead. Shallow cold in the boundary layer is tough to handle. It does much better with the mid levels. Berks would probably be IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro looks a shade more amped through 48h. Still should be a pretty good solution, but it won't be as great as the 12z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro looks a shade more amped through 48h. Still should be a pretty good solution, but it won't be as great as the 12z run was. Knew it. The 30th will be a brush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 A bit quicker bringing in the precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wow euro just gave me 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Its about 4mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 As some suspected, se trend is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That is really close to the 12z...its a shade warmer (like 10 miles maybe) but it also is a bit faster. That is a pretty hellecious front end thump. That ML center gets cranking really quickly. The type height falls that are going on south of SNE is where you get potential forecast busts on the good side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That is really close to the 12z...its a shade warmer (like 10 miles maybe) but it also is a bit faster. That is a pretty hellecious front end thump. That ML center gets cranking really quickly. The type height falls that are going on south of SNE is where you get potential forecast busts on the good side. Man Jb in state college gets walloped 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 How much for philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That is really close to the 12z...its a shade warmer (like 10 miles maybe) but it also is a bit faster. That is a pretty hellecious front end thump. That ML center gets cranking really quickly. The type height falls that are going on south of SNE is where you get potential forecast busts on the good side. Could be a 12/16/07 type front ender....6-10" looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Could be a 12/16/07 type front ender....6-10" looks good. crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hoping for 1-2" down here before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Could be a 12/16/07 type front ender....6-10" looks good. I feel pretty good here and where you are good a front ender. There's several good components to this...there is a 1034 high to north of Lake Huron/Ontario, we have a really impressive push of WAA to give deep lift, and we have rapidly falling heights south of us which will try and slow down the warming in the mid-levels. The negatives of course are that the airmass at the start isn't great to begin with (its not bad, just not great) and the latitude the storm gains before it really gets shoved east. If we had a 12/16/07 air mass, we'd never flip. But the positives are pretty good to have in our camp for a pretty good shot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 8-10 for orh before flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 6-10 here will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Will how much of a concern are bl temps in your opinion for the 128 corridor, are the winds easterly before the front end thump. Just wondering also if u have a guess where the cf would set up in this one. Maybe like eastern andover down toward billerica toward 495/pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Will how much of a concern are bl temps in your opinion for the 128 corridor, are the winds easterly before the front end thump. Just wondering also if u have a guess where the cf would set up in this one. Maybe like eastern andover down toward billerica toward 495/pike? They will def be an issue at some point. Hard to say, but inside 128 will prob have issues prettty quick, but if the sfc low is a bit east then that changes it for the better. It will probably set up near Ray for a time early on...but the BL flow is pretty strong easterly so it could get pushed to 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 6-10 here will? Everyone nw of 84 gets hit hard on the front end. Definitely 6"+ for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Will, how does this look for Westchester? Sorry for IMBY questions, but it's hard to see on Wunderground. It looks to me as if we stay below 0C at 850 until 54 hours, at which point a significant amount of QPF has fallen. Surface temperatures are a bit questionable though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Good call Ray on the further east solution 12/30. I would not yet take it to the bank however. Great pattern moving forward starting just about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Will, I never know where to ask because Philly and NYC threads don't cover my area well. I am in Gouldsboro, PA, northern Poconos, just S of Scranton and at2k ft elevation. Behaves more like NE there. How am I looking on Euro? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Will, how does this look for Westchester? Sorry for IMBY questions, but it's hard to see on Wunderground. It looks to me as if we stay below 0C at 850 until 54 hours, at which point a significant amount of QPF has fallen. Surface temperatures are a bit questionable though? It looks to me like about 3"....but yeah sfc temps are marginal. Big gradient there for sfc temps at 48h...it is torched by 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Will, I never know where to ask because Philly and NYC threads don't cover my area well. I am in Gouldsboro, PA, northern Poconos, just S of Scranton and at2k ft elevation. Behaves more like NE there. How am I looking on Euro? Thanks Gosh, maybe 4-6"? Looks like some icing issues after that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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