MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's killing me because my brother has a house at Sugarloaf and I'm getting no further than Berkshire East on Friday. (Which could still be very nice.) The loaf may fare well with this. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You talking about NH or where you are in CT? NH...I'll be back before this. Glad to see you're among the living! Yes! Can't miss posting finally on the brink of perhaps warning level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hey Eddie boy, keep me informed ok? I gotchu. You're place looks good for 5-9" per this run, then IP/ZR, then plain like 34F rain. Ew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Looks good for about 6-10" here, prior to cold rain....pretty good non NAM concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Pretty good front end plastering for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Solid run...that's a fun 6 hours on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Crushed Good run for just about everyone, but you and Jeff are clear winners in these last couple of runs. These make me wish I had my places in Maine still. I'll probalby do better here than I would at my house in Bath would do. But my place in Bethel on the other hand......... 26.1/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Figure I'd introduce myself and say Hello. I've been lurking on here for quite a few days now. A little about myself is that I live in Palmer, Ma (01069) and I'm about .7 mile south of the Mass Pike, although the wife and I will be relocating back to Ludlow, Ma (01056) sometime this winter. I'm 31 and hold a fairly stable career. I'm quite the amateur, but I'm here to expand my knowledge base. I've always had an interest in meteorology and more specifically, winter storm tracking/predicting. I must say there is definitely a learning curve when it comes to some of the short-hand and jargon used in the forums. A key or chart stating some common-used acronyms would be a huge help to noobs such as myself. But I'm also guessing most people that join probably have more of background then myself. I must say, as this is the first storm I've followed on here, I've already learned that models can change quite quickly and when too much is emotionally invested, it can be quite the roller coaster ride. That said, it's been entertaining watching the reactions of everyone as the models have shifted multipe times. I look forward to learning quite a bit more as I've already learned a massive amount over the past 4-5 days. From what I've gathered, I haven't seen too many people close to my area, so if there is anything I can do observation-wise to help anyone out, please feel free to ask. All that being said, BRING ON SOME SNOW! I'm in Monson, about a mile south of the Pike, so must be pretty close. Enjoy whatever comes of this-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 4-8 for me? Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ukie is a huge front end thump too....fast redevelopment on the ML low...Monads probably never flip..or just very briefly if they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Question. Do you think the intensity of the precip at onset will be enough to use the 850 isotherm as a dividing line between rain and snow on the front end dump? Or will the SE flow overtake this in the BL, especially at the coast? From a forecasting perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Don't have the midlevels but looks like at least 5'' of front end here before a change. I'd take that. yeah 4-8 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildcard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm in Monson, about a mile south of the Pike, so must be pretty close. Enjoy whatever comes of this-- Ah yes, very close by. I'm near by the 32/20 intersection. Splitting hairs, but just took a serious look at a map and realized my current location is more likely .5 mile S of the Pike. I'm very interested to see what our area gets. Any more SE movement would be pretty fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ukie is a huge front end thump too....fast redevelopment on the ML low...Monads probably never flip..or just very briefly if they do. There's a pretty darn high portion of the qpf that comes in as frozen even here in Mass. We switch to something (not sure what) which will hinder things. Man, the system just continues to unload on Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ukie is a huge front end thump too....fast redevelopment on the ML low...Monads probably never flip..or just very briefly if they do. I wish I were back in Rindge for this one although I'd be off-campus for Christmas break. Looks like 12-18" for elevated areas of the Monads. GFS looks good for a front-end thump in Westchester, definitely trended colder and more similar to the Euro. I'd be thrilled to pick up 2-4" with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GGEM came in pretty cold too...maybe even colder than the Ukie...it has trouble flipping ORH over at any point..probably some sleet for a time at its warmest, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah I saw that. I wanted something that came from a Met... :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Jeff's getting 18 inches. Happy holidays Jerry, I hope your going to enjoy them as much as i am, You deserve some of this along with scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GGEM came in pretty cold too...maybe even colder than the Ukie...it has trouble flipping ORH over at any point..probably some sleet for a time at its warmest, but not by much. Looks good even at the south coast for a few hours at onset. Probably 1-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GEFS about exactly what you would expect for 60 hours or less...just a hair less amped than the GFS...but very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GGEM seems to flip us back to snow and hard for a time. Crazy run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS held serve from 18z....se trend is done. 12z was the best run. I expect the EURO to be warmer than 12z with regard to this system, and less amped with the 30th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Think we have a consensus on the track less some subtle shifts rather then large swings in either direction at this point, Models for the most part have trended favorably for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS held serve from 18z....se trend is done. 12z was the best run. I expect the EURO to be warmer than 00z with regard to this system, and less amped with the 30th event. Nah this is colder vs 18z to me. This now matched the euro pretty well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nah this is colder vs 18z to me. This now matched the euro pretty well I think. Yeah it did come a bit colder than 18z...not hugely so, but it did. 12z was the coldest though. Ukie and GGEM came in colder than 12z though...so we're still trying to stabilize on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nah this is colder vs 18z to me. This now matched the euro pretty well I think. The H85 line was dead-nuts on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The H85 line was dead-nuts on 18z. 00z was a tad faster though...so more QPF got in ahead of the mix line than 18z did...even though the lines were similar on an hour by hour comparison...a larger percentage of the storm was frozen on 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 00z was a tad faster though...so more QPF got in ahead of the mix line than 18z did...even though the lines were similar on an hour by hour comparison...a larger percentage of the storm was frozen on 00z. Yes. That's my point.. And the low track I thought similar to 12 euro particularly when it exited the coast well south of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I wonder if we see one last tick SE/colder before we get our final consensus..what a weenie few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 00z was a tad faster though...so more QPF got in ahead of the mix line than 18z did...even though the lines were similar on an hour by hour comparison...a larger percentage of the storm was frozen on 00z. Gotcha...I just compared H85 temp frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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