weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Unless a miracle happens, this really isn't for us I don't think. You may squeeze a few inches out of the front end perhaps. The only thing that could help, is a hellacious band that heralds the arrival of strong WAA. If we can get that to come down like gangbusters than perhaps, but not feeling this at the moment. It's also possible SE trend is done, but can't say for sure. It will only go so far SE. Yeah this is a longhot inside of Rays house but it should be decent for him and Will. Kevin may do ok also avoiding lower level marine taint but his head may be dented by mid day 12/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah this is a longhot inside of Rays house but it should be decent for him and Will. Kevin may do ok also avoiding lower level marine taint but his head may be dented by mid day 12/27. Yeah I don't think I stay all snow unless Euro verifies and tickles SE again. I do think it's fairly certain that i never hit 32 though..I could see a 4-8 here with sleet then zr..ends as some light snow. then we add another 12+ on the 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah I don't think I stay all snow unless Euro verifies and tickles SE again. I do think it's fairly certain that i never hit 32 though..I could see a 4-8 here with sleet then zr..ends as some light snow. then we add another 12+ on the 30th 12z Euro was really cold, even down here....keeps me mostly snow/frozen. I think it verifies in between the Euro and GFS...1-3" before rain here, you get 3-6" with mixed precip after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wow, just saw Albany already has WS Watches up for ENY & Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah this is a longhot inside of Rays house but it should be decent for him and Will. Kevin may do ok also avoiding lower level marine taint but his head may be dented by mid day 12/27. Well like I said, you may get a heck Of a quick paste job at like 32f for a few hours. Every little wobble with the low an little nowcasting nuances will mean quite a bit in borderline areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nice job...I'm not as bullish as you in my region...but I still think we'll get warning critieria here. (>=6" in a 12 hour period) Probably plenty of sleet and ZR to go with it. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Where are you located? ORH = Worcester, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just curious. I may be going to Hadley Mass for a snowblower for my lawn tractor. Just don't know when I can get there to purchase it and get it home. I may be needing it in the next few days. I never thought the pattern would change to back to back big storms from the constant rain we have had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 No, I'm not. I'm actually about 7 miles north of the Pike on the north side of Lenox about 3/4 of a mile below the Pittsfield line. The Pike runs through Lee and Stockbridge, but never touches Lenox. The weather at the PSF (Pittsfield Airport) ASOS is usually pretty much identical to what it is here as I'm about 2.5 miles SE and at roughly the same elevation. This whole Mass Pike thing is arbitrary to me and doesn't mean as much once you're here in the Berkshires anyway. I know someone at 1,500 feet in Tolland, MA and they do quite well...certainly a lot better than areas well north of the Pike in E and C MA. I remember people always using the Merritt Parkway for a similar purpose where I grew up in SW CT as elevations increase a bit north of there and that area can hold the cold a little better in marginal setups. Anyhow, I think you'll do well with this next event. Barring some dramatic shift to the NW (or God forbid, SE), I believe you'll be all snow and get a good 8-12" storm. There's a chance I may flirt briefly with the pingers, as I'm always weary of these sneaky warm tongues that come in above 850 mb near 750 or 800 mb in these SWFE redeveloper setups. This is why it's very important for people to check the vertical profiles and not rely exclusively on the 850 mb 0° C line to delineate between snow and sleet or rain. Yeah--I had Lenox as being south, Mitch. My bad Regardless of how things shift from here, I'm 99% certain you'll be enjoying a nice gain this week. Figure I'd introduce myself and say Hello. I've been lurking on here for quite a few days now. A little about myself is that I live in Palmer, Ma (01069) and I'm about .7 mile south of the Mass Pike, although the wife and I will be relocating back to Ludlow, Ma (01056) sometime this winter. I'm 31 and hold a fairly stable career. I'm quite the amateur, but I'm here to expand my knowledge base. I've always had an interest in meteorology and more specifically, winter storm tracking/predicting. I must say there is definitely a learning curve when it comes to some of the short-hand and jargon used in the forums. A key or chart stating some common-used acronyms would be a huge help to noobs such as myself. But I'm also guessing most people that join probably have more of background then myself. I must say, as this is the first storm I've followed on here, I've already learned that models can change quite quickly and when too much is emotionally invested, it can be quite the roller coaster ride. That said, it's been entertaining watching the reactions of everyone as the models have shifted multipe times. I look forward to learning quite a bit more as I've already learned a massive amount over the past 4-5 days. From what I've gathered, I haven't seen too many people close to my area, so if there is anything I can do observation-wise to help anyone out, please feel free to ask. All that being said, BRING ON SOME SNOW! Hi all, first time poster here. Been lurking for awhile but new to the region (since September) so didn't want to jump in until now. My name is Eric and I'm located in Interior Rockingham Co. NH (Newmarket). Absolutely love the weather and looking forward to learning so much more here, folks on here have a ton of knowledge! Hoping for my first 6" snowfall as a NH resident Thursday! Merry Christmas everyone! Welcome Eric and Wildcard. Glad to have you on the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wow, just saw Albany already has WS Watches up for ENY & Berks. Great to see. On top of a fair amount of uncertainty for BOX, they have the added complication of the WWA in place in CT. So makes a lot of sense for them to hold off. If things look worrisome tonight, come tomorrow afernoon (or even the morning) I'd expect them to hoist as/where appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z NAM got off the bong for storm 2. Well SE through the early part of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 00z NAM slower and further south with the storm. However 850 line is in the same place as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hair slower track looks about the same as 18z, 4mb stronger though then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Starts off a bit colder...front end thump though is really isn't that good though because lift doesn't get going until we are much further into the WCB. Its has a more N-S tilt to it than the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Its actually is a tad warmer as well then 18z up here pushes the 546dm line almost over the top here then 18z, Had it off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 ITs def colder...esp for NH...the ML center track is further south so the WAA halts further south than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 mid level low transfer east much better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Its actually is a tad warmer as well then 18z lol, check 66 at 00z vs 72 at 18z...then check 72h at 00z vs 78h at 18z...def colder for YBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z NAM got off the bong for storm 2. Well SE through the early part of the run. Many scenarios still on the table 72 hours out. We've watched this go from a coastal bomb 7-9 days out to an Apps cutter suicide machine on sat/sun runs back to a coastal solution (albeit hugger) last night/today. That being said I feel the models are converging on a definite strong coastal just need to see if we get this out to the BM (not confident) or cutting across E. MA. My gut feeling is that we'll be looking at a strong coastal that will be rapidly intensifying SE of Montauk and cutting across Chatham into GOM. Taint will be an issue for many but after a solid thumping up front. Across most of the interior I'd expect some happy snow weenies. This area often over-performs with CAD so I'm not sweating a change to plain rain at this lat/long but pingers are always a possibility. Optimistic 6"-9" in Greenfield is my call. Should be a good snow base in much of NE come the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 lol, check 66 at 00z vs 72 at 18z...then check 72h at 00z vs 78h at 18z...def colder for YBY. Yeah i jumped in the run last minute, 546dm came close then crashed back SE as the heavier rates moved in, Its SE of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well certainly plenty of time left with this one to move 50 miles either way. Still a pretty cruddy run verbatim for SNE...but def better for CNE...good trend on the mid-level transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well certainly plenty of time left with this one to move 50 miles either way. Still a pretty cruddy run verbatim for SNE...but def better for CNE...good trend on the mid-level transfer. People have asked for this, but I don't recall if we ever had a legit definition of CNE. Is it basically MA/NH border up to central VT/NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 People have asked for this, but I don't recall if we ever had a legit definition of CNE. Is it basically MA/NH border up to central VT/NH? Yeah maybe anywhere form extreme N MA to C NH/C VT/S ME. In this context it is not that important...its just describing a general area that did better verbatim on a NAM solution 60+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 My interpretation is southern half of NH and VT and SW Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 People have asked for this, but I don't recall if we ever had a legit definition of CNE. Is it basically MA/NH border up to central VT/NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Another nice hit with long duration east flow. Going to be fun here on the east slopes of the spine regardless of model QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 http://www.americanw...ost__p__1942135 Yeah I saw that. I wanted something that came from a Met... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah I don't think I stay all snow unless Euro verifies and tickles SE again. I do think it's fairly certain that i never hit 32 though..I could see a 4-8 here with sleet then zr..ends as some light snow. then we add another 12+ on the 30th Much different in Somers? We're supposed to drive up from North Carolina on Wednesday...sounds like we need to be up before Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't know that I should believe the NAM's qpf outpout of 1.6". That would imply up to 18" of snow...I'm sure it will cut back some on that. Taint gets closer to me by far than on the GFS or Euro, but looks ok. Well certainly plenty of time left with this one to move 50 miles either way. Still a pretty cruddy run verbatim for SNE...but def better for CNE...good trend on the mid-level transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM still blows chunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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