ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 that worked out well lol Yeah, lol...trying to keep it in perspective on how much can change with this. We used to rarely follow events that were outside of 5 days on the models. This year it seems we've been doing it from day 8 and day 9. I understand that we are coming off a really dud winter with very few storms (even rain storms), so everyone is craving storms to follow...but its easy to set expectations way too high when you follow systems that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Every thread is him running amok, even having Will to keep him in check. This is good, because it makes any disappointment much funnier. Right. ...The flip side being if he's right by even the slightest of chances, he will go from zero to hero in 2 seconds flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Every thread is him running amok, even having Will to keep him in check. This is good, because it makes any disappointment much funnier. What disappointment? High winds.. Check snow for Xmas.. Check... Snow / ice bomb 26-27.. Check.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 No Spiking!!! I really want to snowmobile before Jan 3. We probably need close to 2 feet to make that happen...not impossible if we get a good one next week and a couple followup events. It really piles up fast up here as you know. It will also help us max out cold temps, particularly when the artic comes down in a couple weeks. I hope you have been reading Don S in the main thread. I stick my head in there on occasion and read Don and Wes, They are already riding up here after this week, Grooming from Jackman to the County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Right. ...The flip side being if he's right by even the slightest of chances, he will go from zero to hero in 2 seconds flat. Amateur version of JB...keep calling for the big event and eventually you'll be right after 10 busts. On the flip side, we have some posters too who will downplay every event as well...even when it shouldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yeah, lol...trying to keep it in perspective on how much can change with this. We used to rarely follow events that were outside of 5 days on the models. This year it seems we've been doing it from day 8 and day 9. I understand that we are coming off a really dud winter with very few storms (even rain storms), so everyone is craving storms to follow...but its easy to set expectations way too high when you follow systems that far out. this winter has been a dud so far for some of us. I have 0.3" so far this month lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What disappointment? High winds.. Check snow for Xmas.. Check... Snow / ice bomb 26-27.. Check.. Well half kidding aside, lots of time left, so either one of those may not meet expectations. Likewise, many could be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 this winter has been a dud so far for some of us. I have 0.3" so far this month lol. Wow, glad I didn't tell you "active LES" when you asked a month ago, lol ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow, glad I didn't tell you "active LES" when you asked a month ago, lol ... yep garbage pattern. We might be able to somewhat save December in the last 10 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 yep garbage pattern. We might be able to somewhat save December in the last 10 days though. I hope so man because this was a downright failure for a -AO and subtle SE ridge. In any other December, this should have delivered a gradient pattern to you guys. Failure! This will be one of the warmest Decembers ever and the scary part is: it will be one of the most -AO Decembers ever. Something is wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I hope so man because this was a downright failure for a -AO and subtle SE ridge. In any other December, this should have delivered a gradient pattern to you guys. Failure! This will be one of the warmest Decembers ever and the scary part is: it will be one of the most -AO Decembers ever. Something is wrong here. PAC jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I hope so man because this was a downright failure for a -AO and subtle SE ridge. In any other December, this should have delivered a gradient pattern to you guys. Failure! This will be one of the warmest Decembers ever and the scary part is: it will be one of the most -AO Decembers ever. Something is wrong here. is this going to change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 PAC jet Well I meant, something is wrong with how we calculate our teleconnections. I have said it before, but I don't like the way the CPC calculates this stuff and I think the loading patterns should use zonal winds. Why is the AO so negative with a giant PV sitting near the North Pole? http://www.meteo.psu...0/5dayloop.html Edit: And with a raging Pacific jet, the westerlies are obviously strong, right? Isn't this something we should expect with a +AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I hope so man because this was a downright failure for a -AO and subtle SE ridge. In any other December, this should have delivered a gradient pattern to you guys. Failure! This will be one of the warmest Decembers ever and the scary part is: it will be one of the most -AO Decembers ever. Something is wrong here. GW? And not the bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 PAC jet Dec 2001 and Dec 1996 were big torches with a pretty solidly -AO. Dec 1952 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well I meant, something is wrong with how we calculate our teleconnections. I have said it before, but I don't like the way the CPC calculates this stuff and I think the loading patterns should use zonal winds. Why is the AO so negative with a giant PV sitting near the North Pole? http://www.meteo.psu...0/5dayloop.html Edit: And with a raging Pacific jet, the westerlies are obviously strong, right? Isn't this something we should expect with a +AO? Yes, thanks for saying this. I mentioned several times that you have to look at the pattern and the H5 anomalies, not just the index text values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 is this going to change? The Aleutian Low, Split Flow, +PNA is a real possibility developing by 1/4. Certainly you know about all the potentials from now until then. It could lead to something widespread after 1/4, if it materializes. Gee we would have ACTUAL Arctic Air. I don't give a crap about an AO number if it doesn't represent the actual pattern. Record warmth in December and a fast Pacific Jet are not products of a -AO hemispheric circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What disappointment? High winds.. Check snow for Xmas.. Check... Snow / ice bomb 26-27.. Check.. follow up SWFE for my bday on NYE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The EPO and PNA also have helped to kill us regarding winter chances. Sometimes you can have the same pattern with just a wee bit of difference in some place like AK, and the outcome is night and day. It's just too tough to determine things like that several weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The Aleutian Low, Split Flow, +PNA is a real possibility developing by 1/4. Certainly you know about all the potentials from now until then. It could lead to something widespread after 1/4, if it materializes. Gee we would have ACTUAL Arctic Air. I don't give a crap about an AO number if it doesn't represent the actual pattern. Record warmth in December and a fast Pacific Jet are not products of a -AO hemispheric circulation. Someone tell Sultan this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Another great example of a funrace during a very -AO month was January 1953. The common theme seems to be cross polar flow is cut off and we have a very -PNA to go with it. Months like this aren't that common since the regions we want high heights in make up a chunk of the AO domian...but you can find them searching through the tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The good thing is at least we have a stormy pattern. We just need the storm track to shift in our favor when there is cold air in place.. I'll take my chances with a "warm" and stormy pattern over a "warm" and dry pattern. The early returns so far haven't been good at all. I think the next 2 weeks tells the tale for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Dec 2001 and Dec 1996 were big torches with a pretty solidly -AO. Dec 1952 as well. December 2001 had a stratospheric warming (and another in February) and kind of similar to this year. In fact, it was a stratospheric analog but the active sun put it on the bottom of the list. The active sun created the segregated warmings and late second one, so it cannot be used this year. But anyway, 1952, 1996 and 2001 all have 1 thing in common: a giant low anomaly in the GOA-Alaska-BC sector. Plot 500mb zonal wind anomalies for 2009, as a good example, and then plot these 3 years. If zonal winds were incorporated into the calculations, it would reduce these fraudulent years' number somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Another great example of a funrace during a very -AO month was January 1953. The common theme seems to be cross polar flow is cut off and we have a very -PNA to go with it. Months like this aren't that common since the regions we want high heights in make up a chunk of the AO domian...but you can find them searching through the tables. I think HM brings up a good point on how it's calculated. Why aren't there strong positive anomalies over the Pole if the AO is this negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The Aleutian Low, Split Flow, +PNA is a real possibility developing by 1/4. Certainly you know about all the potentials from now until then. It could lead to something widespread after 1/4, if it materializes. Gee we would have ACTUAL Arctic Air. I don't give a crap about an AO number if it doesn't represent the actual pattern. Record warmth in December and a fast Pacific Jet are not products of a -AO hemispheric circulation. any general feelings on the dec. 27th threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I think HM brings up a good point on how it's calculated. Why aren't there strong positive anomalies over the Pole if the AO is this negative? Well a lot of spots near the pole have positive anomalies. Looks where the negative ones have been...worst possible spot for the CONUS. Luckily, it looks like that is going to end. As a result, they are getting the brutal cold in Asia/Northern Europe while we have baked...the one plus is we've kept Canada pretty cold. I think that should be good going forward when we finally rebuild the heights near AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The AO is all about the entire northern hemisphere basically from 20°N up and is calculated using 1000mb anomalies. So if my Hadley Cell is more poleward, the NH is warmer and anomalies for warmth develop close to the Arctic Circle, now suddenly I have a -AO? This is not how it should work. The cold anomalies so far are basically 60°N and up from Scand-Siberia and again in Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 any general feelings on the dec. 27th threat? It is looking good for a heavy, wet snow in the elevations / interior Northeast while a changeover/mostly rain scenario is most favored ATTM for coastal southern New England into the Mid Atlantic. We just don't have a sufficient cold air source for the coastal plain and the bootleg blocking has to position absolutely perfect to allow the CAA to be sufficient. Given the Pacific Jet / setup, I'm just not feeling that potential. There is no way someone can look at the pattern and say, "it must snow in the I-95 corridor" because of whatever...if it is a pure snowstorm there, it is because of absolute lucky timing of features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It is looking good for a heavy, wet snow in the elevations / interior Northeast while a changeover/mostly rain scenario is most favored ATTM for coastal southern New England into the Mid Atlantic. We just don't have a sufficient cold air source for the coastal plain and the bootleg blocking has to position absolutely perfect to allow the CAA to be sufficient. Given the Pacific Jet / setup, I'm just not feeling that potential. There is no way someone can look at the pattern and say, "it must snow in the I-95 corridor" because of whatever...if it is a pure snowstorm there, it is because of absolute lucky timing of features. Agree....just have to hope for a decent front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS looks fugly with closed ULL over KY at 120h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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