Amped Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It can go either way at this point. A few miles will make a big difference. Throw out 18z 6z runs, If you toss the NAM toss the 18z GFS too to be fair. They are poor at representing trends IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well there is enough time that it shouldn't be completely tossed...the solution is certainly believable. I just said I wouldn't take it seriously. The NAM does this a lot...fairly decent swings outside of 48 hours. Heck even inside 48h, lol...it had this juicier trend for 12/25 this morning and none of the globals followed it...then the NAM went back to drier at 18z. If the 18z GFS comes notably NW, then I think we could say the NAM may have seen something valid. I agree with Ryan that its within the envelope of possibilities... I think all the models over the next 2 days are going to have burps east and west by 25 miles here and 50 miles there. I know it has huge implications in SNE, but I would expect the GFS could come in 50 miles east or west from 12z...and it still won't matter because the 00z could just do the same thing the other way, lol. I think the Mets on here have a good handle on the situation and that's why you just gotta play the probabilities, local climate, and snow ranges that may be a little larger than normal (ie. 3-7"/7-14" or something). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 First stab at a snowfall forecast for Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 hard to call changes over 12z at this point b/c this run appears to be 3+ hours faster compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 hard to call changes over 12z at this point b/c this run appears to be 3+ hours faster compared to 12z looks warmer.Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 First stab at a snowfall forecast for Thursday... I endorse it Sam, Nice Map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ya definitely a tad warmer than 12z...maybe 10-20 mi shift NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 A touch warmer and maybe a tick NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wasn't this a mainly rain event days ago? Any frozen at this point would be bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is def a bit warmer....we couldn't have a threat without building the Christmas 00z run suspense a little bit, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 First stab at a snowfall forecast for Thursday... Your understanding of topography enhancement in your graphic is second to none. With that said, I'd add a 10-16" glob over the greens give enhancement, or is that not handled in this depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Warmer on the GFS. As I posted before we're sort of playing with fire with a track straddling the coast. 50 miles west and it's curtains for sig snow for a lot of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is def a bit warmer....we couldn't have a threat without building the Christmas 00z run suspense a little bit, lol. Glad i have the Iphone.lol, It ramped up Qpf here as well, Looks like it came a hair further north before it occluded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 First stab at a snowfall forecast for Thursday... Nice job...I'm not as bullish as you in my region...but I still think we'll get warning critieria here. (>=6" in a 12 hour period) Probably plenty of sleet and ZR to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Box decidedly meh on the mid week event: Wednesday night into Thursday... Still thinking the low pressure track middle-week will be too close to lock in the cold air across southern New England Thursday. The question remains as to how fast the warm air arrives Wednesday night. At this point thinking areas inside of I-495 will be rain by midnight...with central and western Massachusetts and southwest New Hampshire possibly staying a rain snow mix Thursday morning. Thinking this will be mainly a Winter Weather Advisory event from either light snowfall accumulations or ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Warmer on the GFS. As I posted before we're sort of playing with fire with a track straddling the coast. 50 miles west and it's curtains for sig snow for a lot of SNE. Grinch! 50 miles further east though and things could turn positive. We're going to need to clear this system out tonight, we will probably see the wobble back and forth until after the 6z or 12z tonight. It's warmer at 18z for sure, and the NAM at 18z is again trying to take away the front end thump (IMO) with the warm push like yesterdays 18z. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like a big front end dump (6"+) for Berkshires on 18Z GFS before going to sleet. Definitely colder than the 18Z NAM, as that was a toaster bath, even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Grinch! 50 miles further east though and things could turn positive. We're going to need to clear this system out tonight, we will probably see the wobble back and forth until after the 6z or 12z tonight. It's warmer at 18z for sure, and the NAM at 18z is again trying to take away the front end thump (IMO) with the warm push like yesterdays 18z. We'll see. Warmer and west trends don't happen on the board. Only colder and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice job...I'm not as bullish as you in my region...but I still think we'll get warning critieria here. (>=6" in a 12 hour period) Probably plenty of sleet and ZR to go with it. Yeah it's pretty gung ho specifically over your area. Really dependent on the development of the mid level low to the east and northeast track that's gotten more support today. I'm riding on agreement growing on that trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 First stab at a snowfall forecast for Thursday... Interesting... I know you aren't really focusing on this area (no one does, lol) but I'd be absolutely shocked if northern VT into southern Canada got less than 8", especially with wrap-around NW flow. All models show a QPF maximum and deform band up that way (like north of me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah it's pretty gung ho specifically over your area. Really dependent on the development of the mid level low to the east and northeast track that's gotten more support today. I'm riding on agreement growing on that trend Yeah we'll see how the 00z runs try and focus those mid-level centers...as long as an 18z NAM type solution doesn't happen, I do think we'll get a pretty healthy hit of snow on the front end. The 18z NAM gave me about a half inch QPF worth of pellets, lol. I felt like Tolland in SWFE looking at those soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Pretty cool graphic by Patrick Marsh showing the trend in the NAM today over the south. Just gives you an idea of the shift toward digging further and further southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'd hit this... especially seeing where that SFC low ends up with NW flow at the end and synoptic moisture still hanging around. And the GFS (like pretty much every model) has that band of enhanced lift that travels from SW to NE along the international border. With the cold temps, someone NW of here is going to get smoked in that area from BUF to north of BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Interesting... I know you aren't really focusing on this area (no one does, lol) but I'd be absolutely shocked if northern VT into southern Canada got less than 8", especially with wrap-around NW flow. All models show a QPF maximum and deform band up that way (like north of me). I struggled with what I wanted to do up there. There seems to be unanimous agreement on a huge snowfall for upstate NY and N VT, so maybe subconsciously I was going for devil's advocate lol. Basically I'm watching this transfer of energy from the initial mid level low to developing a low east of NJ tracking over the Cape ... I'm looking for a potential screw zone as a result of this transfer. If new ML low doesn't really close itself off, or doesn't track as far east, then this map probably busts way low up there, and I'll be making changes tomorrow if the trend I'm looking for isn't taking off. For now, just tossing it out there as a possibility. 50% chance I'm very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I thought the end result is pretty similar to 12z for mby. It seems to bring everything in quicker so it's hard to compare hours with 12z but same time frame is warmer now certainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Someone should start a new thread to start off the 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Someone should start a new thread to start off the 00z runs 3hrs of dead time to go thru. I would wait till srefs roll out and have one more thread for models and obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I struggled with what I wanted to do up there. There seems to be unanimous agreement on a huge snowfall for upstate NY and N VT, so maybe subconsciously I was going for devil's advocate lol. Basically I'm watching this transfer of energy from the initial mid level low to developing a low east of NJ tracking over the Cape ... I'm looking for a potential screw zone as a result of this transfer. If new ML low doesn't really close itself off, or doesn't track as far east, then this map probably busts way low up there, and I'll be making changes tomorrow if the trend I'm looking for isn't taking off. For now, just tossing it out there as a possibility. 50% chance I'm very wrong. Makes sense... I'm sort of with you, lol. The models can't nail anything at this lead time, so it makes you think something will go wrong. Being in the sweet spot for the past 24-48 hours means this has to fail given the model shifts we've seen this season, And if 8-12" is a "screw zone" then this is a pretty sweet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Oz should be telling tonight. We're doing the traditional dinner and movie if we can get our arses in gear so it will have played out by the time I'm home save for the euro and I probably won't stay up given the fact that I'd like to be out early tomorrow to enjoy any snow that may come. 18Z GEFS have the low traversing very near the s coast maybe just inside of ack. OT but GEFS more bullish than op for the next event 12/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Oz should be telling tonight. We're doing the traditional dinner and movie if we can get our arses in gear so it will have played out by the time I'm home save for the euro and I probably won't stay up given the fact that I'd like to be out early tomorrow to enjoy any snow that may come. 18Z GEFS have the low traversing very near the s coast maybe just inside of ack. OT but GEFS more bullish than op for the next event 12/30. Unless a miracle happens, this really isn't for us I don't think. You may squeeze a few inches out of the front end perhaps. The only thing that could help, is a hellacious band that heralds the arrival of strong WAA. If we can get that to come down like gangbusters than perhaps, but not feeling this at the moment. It's also possible SE trend is done, but can't say for sure. It will only go so far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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