powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That would take care of the BUF/ROC/SYR snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Through 63hr 0C line at 850mb is having trouble getting to the Pike. Lots of precip bullseyed over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z is faster then 12z but it looks a hair warmer as well It looks slightly farther west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Low appears to cut into CT, all of Mass. goes above freezing at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It looks slightly farther west as well. It does, Going to be close to having taint issues with this run here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Upstate NY gets crushed through and through up into Montreal and southern Quebec. You can see the lift sort of splits with really strong lift way NW of the surface low and another area associated with the WCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM is definitely warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Toss it I'd like that further SE even... to get into that better lift to my NW that's in upstate NY and southern Quebec, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It does, Going to be close to having taint issues with this run here CAD doing a serious job holding back that warmth aloft via the NAM12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM is definitely warm. Its a torch down your way, But its the Nam @hr72 fwiw, It certainly placed a halt to the SE trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 CAD doing a serious job holding back that warmth aloft via the NAM12. Yeah as the heavier rates moved in it look to crash heights back SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Its a torch down your way, But its the Nam @hr72 fwiw, It certainly placed a halt to the SE trend Well at the end of the day a storm track over CT or RI is generally not favorable for a large portion of SNE. Sure you can get a good thump and a nasty sleet/zr mix after but there's a reason why storms that are offshore are better for most of SNE outside of Rt 2/Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Occludes over MA. Not sure what to make of it given the nam post 36 hours issues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Eh, just another solution on the table...nothing worth reading too much into one way or the other at this point. Its going to be all over the place the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The thing is....it was heading to the euro solution and the.diverged past 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well at the end of the day a storm track over CT or RI is generally not favorable for a large portion of SNE. Sure you can get a good thump and a nasty sleet/zr mix after but there's a reason why storms that are offshore are better for most of SNE outside of Rt 2/Berkshires. Yeah you need a NJ out to Ack-BM track to save a lot of the SE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Buffalo gets like 20 inches on this run. Huge storm with a massive precipitation field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 850-925 heights were close here to being to warm, Verbatim at the moment it would be the western outlier me thinks but like i said we all know how the Nam is this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 well i was getting a weenie tent until a few minutes ago. It is just one run and its the nam but i am feeling a little less excited than i was say twenty minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 850-925 heights were close here to being to warm, Verbatim at the moment it would be the western outlier me thinks but like i said we all know how the Nam is this far out Yeah it's definitely a western outlier but we're playing with fire with a track this close to the coast. We have to keep in mind 50 miles west of the 12z consensus is a pretty ugly storm for a lot of SNE. For a 60 hour forecast... a 50 mile swing one way or another isn't a big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM is a NW outlier at this point...I wouldn't take anything it has to say seriously outside of 48h when it is an outlier with global models. Verbatim its not a very good solution for most of SNE and CNE has some issues too after front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM is a NW outlier at this point...I wouldn't take anything it has to say seriously outside of 48h when it is an outlier with global models. Verbatim its not a very good solution for most of SNE and CNE has some issues too after front end. Geographically, how do you define CNE? Does it run from about Boston to Concord? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 at the beginning of the run, it started out further S and E, but the S/W doesn't de-amplify to the extent shown by the GFS and ECM, so it gets pulled further N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's an 18z run. Not sure I take it as seriously as the 12z model data. What happens at 00z will be important in determining if this is a trend back or just a blip on the radar screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's an 18z run. Not sure I take it as seriously as the 12z model data. What happens at 00z will be important in determining if this is a trend back or just a blip on the radar screen. Hasven't we been over this like a million times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM is a NW outlier at this point...I wouldn't take anything it has to say seriously outside of 48h when it is an outlier with global models. Verbatim its not a very good solution for most of SNE and CNE has some issues too after front end. It is an outlier, yeah. Not sure I'd toss it because it's not wildly NW compared to other solutions. Seems to be within the envelope of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It is an outlier, yeah. Not sure I'd toss it because it's not wildly NW compared to other solutions. Seems to be within the envelope of possibilities. Well there is enough time that it shouldn't be completely tossed...the solution is certainly believable. I just said I wouldn't take it seriously. The NAM does this a lot...fairly decent swings outside of 48 hours. Heck even inside 48h, lol...it had this juicier trend for 12/25 this morning and none of the globals followed it...then the NAM went back to drier at 18z. If the 18z GFS comes notably NW, then I think we could say the NAM may have seen something valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is why I stuck with 2-5" until seeing the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well there is enough time that it shouldn't be completely tossed...the solution is certainly believable. I just said I wouldn't take it seriously. The NAM does this a lot...fairly decent swings outside of 48 hours. Heck even inside 48h, lol...it had this juicier trend for 12/25 this morning and none of the globals followed it...then the NAM went back to drier at 18z. If the 18z GFS comes notably NW, then I think we could say the NAM may have seen something valid. Yeah I sort of kept a warmer appeal in my forecast off the 12z runs assuming that there could have been an overcorrection. A fairly minor swing inland turns a lot warmer. Hopefully the GFS keeps it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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