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December 27/28 Storm Threat

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The model consensus won't change that much now that we are getting inside of 72 hours...however, in this type of setup, only small changes will yield drastic sensible wx results for those that are near the mixing line.

Another bump of 30 miles or so to the southeast would put Boston in a pretty major snowstorm...and 30 miles will happen all the time at 60-72 hours out. Its just that frequently it doesn't mean a big difference since you have to be right on the line for it to mean much.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

The model consensus won't change that much now that we are getting inside of 72 hours...however, in this type of setup, only small changes will yield drastic sensible wx results for those that are near the mixing line.

Another bump of 30 miles or so to the southeast would put Boston in a pretty major snowstorm...and 30 miles will happen all the time at 60-72 hours out. Its just that frequently it doesn't mean a big difference since you have to be right on the line for it to mean much.

I agree with you here Will, Its the folks that are on the fringes that can be greatly affected by these subtle shifts NW or SE, Could place some in the game or take some out

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

The model consensus won't change that much now that we are getting inside of 72 hours...however, in this type of setup, only small changes will yield drastic sensible wx results for those that are near the mixing line.

Another bump of 30 miles or so to the southeast would put Boston in a pretty major snowstorm...and 30 miles will happen all the time at 60-72 hours out. Its just that frequently it doesn't mean a big difference since you have to be right on the line for it to mean much.

If 18Z goes a tick SE I think that 30 mile bump has greater likelihood.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Okay, I had 128 as really going to Concord area.

Don't forget Mitch--he's not in the Hampden hilltowns, but he is south of the Pike.

Righteous! The BOX map has me jackpotting with 6-8". Hopefully, as they become more confident in the snowier solution, I'll remain their jacpot (becasue I'm selfish), but I guess it's that NH area ftw so far. Congrats!

No, I'm not. I'm actually about 7 miles north of the Pike on the north side of Lenox about 3/4 of a mile below the Pittsfield line. The Pike runs through Lee and Stockbridge, but never touches Lenox. The weather at the PSF (Pittsfield Airport) ASOS is usually pretty much identical to what it is here as I'm about 2.5 miles SE and at roughly the same elevation.

This whole Mass Pike thing is arbitrary to me and doesn't mean as much once you're here in the Berkshires anyway. I know someone at 1,500 feet in Tolland, MA and they do quite well...certainly a lot better than areas well north of the Pike in E and C MA. I remember people always using the Merritt Parkway for a similar purpose where I grew up in SW CT as elevations increase a bit north of there and that area can hold the cold a little better in marginal setups.

Anyhow, I think you'll do well with this next event. Barring some dramatic shift to the NW (or God forbid, SE), I believe you'll be all snow and get a good 8-12" storm. There's a chance I may flirt briefly with the pingers, as I'm always weary of these sneaky warm tongues that come in above 850 mb near 750 or 800 mb in these SWFE redeveloper setups. This is why it's very important for people to check the vertical profiles and not rely exclusively on the 850 mb 0° C line to delineate between snow and sleet or rain.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Kind of OT but no thread to put this in, but imagine that it's a Clipper Flipper near the end of the Euro run to boot.

Ray did start a January thread a while back...we can post LR stuff in there now as anything beyond 7 days is into January.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38405-lets-talk-januarypretty-please/page__st__35

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Sure am, Right under my Feb 69 avatar......... :snowing:

If both storms max, that is exactly what we are talking about. Locals here say it was 5 feet in 5 days or so. I haven't looked at Dec 30, but GYX unenthused so far. Will go look at the thread now. I was serious about 12-18 with lolls to 24...that was not just the KFS in me.Signal of 1+ QPF for about 4 or 5 days? at least 2 models today with 1.5+, a slowing system, etc. Strong strong signal.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

If both storms max, that is exactly what we are talking about. Locals here say it was 5 feet in 5 days or so. I haven't looked at Dec 30, but GYX unenthused so far. Will go look at the thread now. I was serious about 12-18 with lolls to 24...that was not just the KFS in me.Signal of 1+ QPF for about 4 or 5 days? at least 2 models today with 1.5+, a slowing system, etc. Strong strong signal.

I am strongly recommending that the previous forecast be tossed from up this way. Whiff is on the table, but considering the ECMWF and HPC are both on board with a coastal of some sort it's back in the forecast. I don't like to yo-yo, but partly cloudy skies weren't cutting it.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

I am strongly recommending that the previous forecast be tossed from up this way. Whiff is on the table, but considering the ECMWF and HPC are both on board with a coastal of some sort it's back in the forecast. I don't like to yo-yo, but partly cloudy skies weren't cutting it.

I think chance of snow with probs of 30% would seem about right. HPC has had around 996 in GOM for a couple of days now. GYX does tend to be a bit conservative, which is understandable. I agree with you about watches going out a little early though given the travel schedules. People may not be paying attention tomorrow.

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Wildcard

Wildcard

Posted
Posted

Figure I'd introduce myself and say Hello. I've been lurking on here for quite a few days now. A little about myself is that I live in Palmer, Ma (01069) and I'm about .7 mile south of the Mass Pike, although the wife and I will be relocating back to Ludlow, Ma (01056) sometime this winter. I'm 31 and hold a fairly stable career. I'm quite the amateur, but I'm here to expand my knowledge base. I've always had an interest in meteorology and more specifically, winter storm tracking/predicting.

I must say there is definitely a learning curve when it comes to some of the short-hand and jargon used in the forums. A key or chart stating some common-used acronyms would be a huge help to noobs such as myself. But I'm also guessing most people that join probably have more of background then myself.

I must say, as this is the first storm I've followed on here, I've already learned that models can change quite quickly and when too much is emotionally invested, it can be quite the roller coaster ride. That said, it's been entertaining watching the reactions of everyone as the models have shifted multipe times.

I look forward to learning quite a bit more as I've already learned a massive amount over the past 4-5 days. From what I've gathered, I haven't seen too many people close to my area, so if there is anything I can do observation-wise to help anyone out, please feel free to ask.

All that being said, BRING ON SOME SNOW! :santa:

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted

good to have you!!

Figure I'd introduce myself and say Hello. I've been lurking on here for quite a few days now. A little about myself is that I live in Palmer, Ma (01069) and I'm about .7 mile south of the Mass Pike, although the wife and I will be relocating back to Ludlow, Ma (01056) sometime this winter. I'm 31 and hold a fairly stable career. I'm quite the amateur, but I'm here to expand my knowledge base. I've always had an interest in meteorology and more specifically, winter storm tracking/predicting.

I must say there is definitely a learning curve when it comes to some of the short-hand and jargon used in the forums. A key or chart stating some common-used acronyms would be a huge help to noobs such as myself. But I'm also guessing most people that join probably have more of background then myself.

I must say, as this is the first storm I've followed on here, I've already learned that models can change quite quickly and when too much is emotionally invested, it can be quite the roller coaster ride. That said, it's been entertaining watching the reactions of everyone as the models have shifted multipe times.

I look forward to learning quite a bit more as I've already learned a massive amount over the past 4-5 days. From what I've gathered, I haven't seen too many people close to my area, so if there is anything I can do observation-wise to help anyone out, please feel free to ask.

All that being said, BRING ON SOME SNOW! :santa:

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

I think chance of snow with probs of 30% would seem about right. HPC has had around 996 in GOM for a couple of days now. GYX does tend to be a bit conservative, which is understandable. I agree with you about watches going out a little early though given the travel schedules. People may not be paying attention tomorrow.

Well the issue stems from our local policy several years ago being to begin with grids based off the GFS and collaborate with surrounding WFOs to come to the conclusion you believe will be the final outcome. Sometimes the GFS based grid just gets left as the final say, and hence a whiff with this morning's forecast.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

following the trends, this is much less of a SW flow redeveloper. much fewer characteristics of a SWFE I think

Yeah its quickly turning into a more of a classic coastal..still some SWFE attributes to it...esp the further south you are, but the transformation into a full blown coastal is complete by the time we have the low south of RI.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Well the issue stems from our local policy several years ago being to begin with grids based off the GFS and collaborate with surrounding WFOs to come to the conclusion you believe will be the final outcome. Sometimes the GFS based grid just gets left as the final say, and hence a whiff with this morning's forecast.

Which with the GFS seems to happen a lot as it seems to be suppressive at times before latching back on and coming around to the other guidance, Namely for the most part the Euro

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teebrdsfan

teebrdsfan

Posted
Posted

Hi all, first time poster here. Been lurking for awhile but new to the region (since September) so didn't want to jump in until now. My name is Eric and I'm located in Interior Rockingham Co. NH (Newmarket). Absolutely love the weather and looking forward to learning so much more here, folks on here have a ton of knowledge! Hoping for my first 6" snowfall as a NH resident Thursday! Merry Christmas everyone!

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Hi all, first time poster here. Been lurking for awhile but new to the region (since September) so didn't want to jump in until now. My name is Eric and I'm located in Interior Rockingham Co. NH (Newmarket). Absolutely love the weather and looking forward to learning so much more here, folks on here have a ton of knowledge! Hoping for my first 6" snowfall as a NH resident Thursday! Merry Christmas everyone!

Welcome aboard, Merry Christmas. Hope you get slammed
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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Hi all, first time poster here. Been lurking for awhile but new to the region (since September) so didn't want to jump in until now. My name is Eric and I'm located in Interior Rockingham Co. NH (Newmarket). Absolutely love the weather and looking forward to learning so much more here, folks on here have a ton of knowledge! Hoping for my first 6" snowfall as a NH resident Thursday! Merry Christmas everyone!

Another Eric from NH! Welcome to the best place for weather addicted weenies in all the world.....You are in a qpf bullseye...let's hope it stays all snow.

Coldfront (Jeff) is our non-met leader...he patiently answers weenie questions day after day...

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Hi all, first time poster here. Been lurking for awhile but new to the region (since September) so didn't want to jump in until now. My name is Eric and I'm located in Interior Rockingham Co. NH (Newmarket). Absolutely love the weather and looking forward to learning so much more here, folks on here have a ton of knowledge! Hoping for my first 6" snowfall as a NH resident Thursday! Merry Christmas everyone!

Welcome and enjoy the ride

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