ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Chuck 'em long, chuck 'em far. First thoughts. Biggest spots that I'm concerned with are near BOS, and central CT...will tweak later as needed. Also, the northern VT 14"+ will be orographically enhanced and banding dependent on the north end of the system. Might have to lower them to 10-14" if VV banding signal isn't there as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Anyone had an in depth look at the EURO, and could let me know how much of that 1.5" of QPF falls prior to tainting? Thanks. Maybe 0.75"? Tough to tell with 6hr panels on SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm excited for here wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Maybe 0.75"? Tough to tell with 6hr panels on SV. Cool....about half...thhnx. 6-10", then a cold rain sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I would take that in a second thanks for posting! Chuck 'em long, chuck 'em far. First thoughts. Biggest spots that I'm concerned with are near BOS, and central CT...will tweak later as needed. Also, the northern VT 14"+ will be orographically enhanced and banding dependent on the north end of the system. Might have to lower them to 10-14" VV banding signal isn't there as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm excited for here wow So....have room on your couch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Anyone had an in depth look at the EURO, and could let me know how much of that 1.5" of QPF falls prior to tainting? Thanks. It looks to me like between 0.75-0.90" falls as snow there. You are just starting to taint at 75 hours. But it could hold on as long as 78h...gradient is close. When you are getting 0.10"-0.20" per hour qpf rates, even an hour or two makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The old easterly wind anomaly at 250 mb. Nice signal for a good dump (Thursday storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It looks to me like between 0.75-0.90" falls as snow there. You are just starting to taint at 75 hours. But it could hold on as long as 78h...gradient is close. When you are getting 0.10"-0.20" per hour qpf rates, even an hour or two makes a big difference. So, looks like pretty good agreement on 6-10", prior to a turn to rain here, right now....will wait until agter 00z suite to make that call. Wouldn't be surprised to see a tick back nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is going to be a nude holiday for just about all if SNE. We waited a long long time for this. It does seem a bit surreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like 32 isotherm stays south if IJD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is going to be a nude holiday for just about all of the region. We waited a long long time for this. It does seem a bit surreal fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice map Chris................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Chuck 'em long, chuck 'em far. First thoughts. Biggest spots that I'm concerned with are near BOS, and central CT...will tweak later as needed. Also, the northern VT 14"+ will be orographically enhanced and banding dependent on the north end of the system. Might have to lower them to 10-14" if VV banding signal isn't there as we get closer. Looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 So....have room on your couch? Yes! And lots of beer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Chuck 'em long, chuck 'em far. First thoughts. Biggest spots that I'm concerned with are near BOS, and central CT...will tweak later as needed. Also, the northern VT 14"+ will be orographically enhanced and banding dependent on the north end of the system. Might have to lower them to 10-14" if VV banding signal isn't there as we get closer. Nice...I'm liking 8-14" here honestly but I'll ramp up if this holds. The NW deform band as SE flow aloft runs into a more NE turning NW flow in the low levels could be very productive. Also temps in snow growth region look optimal up this way. Then once the flow backs NW, we'll clean up quietly while everyone else stops snowing. That'll boost storm totals an extra several inches as per the Greens SOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yes! And lots of beer! I'll be in touch. Depends on Christmas party plans, but if I can, I'm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice...I'm liking 8-14" here honestly but I'll ramp up if this holds. The NW deform band as SE flow aloft runs into a more NE turning NW flow in the low levels could be very productive. Also temps in snow growth region look optimal up this way. Then once the flow backs NW, we'll clean up quietly while everyone else stops snowing. That'll boost storm totals an extra several inches as per the Greens SOP. Right. I think everyone in VT sees at least 7 or 8"ish, with shadowing/enhancement included. Wouldn't surprise me to see Littleton, NH come in with 7" while LSC sees 12"...and meanwhile you're making nude snow angels with 18" up high lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I am excited to see these runs but like I said 2 days ago. I am waiting until Christmas runs to throw out amounts. It's still an evolving situation. Safe to say NNE looks fantastic anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I am excited to see these runs but like I said 2 days ago. I am waiting until Christmas runs to throw out amounts. It's still an evolving situation. Safe to say NNE looks fantastic anyway. Yeah I gotta catch myself...two days of model runs can change a lot. This could still end up jackpotting you to Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice...I'm liking 8-14" here honestly but I'll ramp up if this holds. The NW deform band as SE flow aloft runs into a more NE turning NW flow in the low levels could be very productive. Also temps in snow growth region look optimal up this way. Then once the flow backs NW, we'll clean up quietly while everyone else stops snowing. That'll boost storm totals an extra several inches as per the Greens SOP. Already a pretty nice signal showing up in the SREF products for DGZ depths of 50-100 mb. Once you're pushing triple digits that's when you'll start seeing real healthy (i.e. 20:1) ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 OT but between 27-28th and weekend, many interior areas may be headed for something like 1.5-2.5' depths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 OT but between 27-28th and weekend, many interior areas may be headed for something like 1.5-2.5' depths. That could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah I gotta catch myself...two days of model runs can change a lot. This could still end up jackpotting you to Bob. Two more runs of the Euro and then it's do or die. Hard to imagine any scenario that does not pummel NNE at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Two more runs of the Euro and then it's do or die. Hard to imagine any scenario that does not pummel NNE at this point. It would have to be something drastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That could be You smelling 07 I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I am excited to see these runs but like I said 2 days ago. I am waiting until Christmas runs to throw out amounts. It's still an evolving situation. Safe to say NNE looks fantastic anyway. Agree, but I think there is enough support for first forecasts 54-60 hours out. It will change for sure. What is discussed here and what would be told publicly are two totally different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice map Chris................ Jeff--that has you in the 14-18 zone, right? What town's Eric in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You smelling 07 I am Sure am, Right under my Feb 69 avatar......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Okay, I had 128 as really going to Concord area. I generally agree with you, but there are many times that the Lexington/Burlington area taints and we stay frozen. For example, in last week's icing event we did not go above freezing until well into the morning whereas the 128 towns went above in the early morning hours. Typically, I like to go with a blend of 495 and the 128 forecasts. Often the dividing line is the hill in Lincoln on route 2 near the gas station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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