December 27/28 Storm Threat

[weathafella]

GFS snow numbers: Gfs 12z MAV

South to north and for the 12/27 system only. And this is only through 12z/27 so inland and north there's plenty more coming

BDR. 2. (Means 2-4)

HVN. 2

BDL. 6. (Means 6-8)

PSF. 8. (Means 8+)

ORH. 6

BED. 4 (means 4-6)

LWM. 4

BOS. 4

PSM. 4

LWI. 4

EEN. 6

CON. 6

Maine starts to late for this run.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah agree Chris, thanks. I was scratching my head with those SREF probs, but was unaware of the problems.

It's an easy disclaimer to miss on SPC's site, and if you don't use SPC then you would have no idea at all.

[weathafella]

So sref snow probs have lost their value for now?

[OceanStWx]

It's an easy disclaimer to miss on SPC's site, and if you don't use SPC then you would have no idea at all.

Ekster and I noticed it at shift change the day before that big SE upslope event for places like Sugarloaf. SREF had really low (< 30%) probs for 1", and similarly for ZR. We kind of agreed to toss the ARW runs then just because they looked so anomalously low on snowfall. Turns out there was actually a problem.

[OceanStWx]

So sref snow probs have lost their value for now?

I would use http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ for means for now and manually remove the ARW runs. Or just calibrate mentally that the probs you see are accounting for 0 or near 0 snowfall from several ensemble members.

[CoastalWx]

That first image shows the SLP pattern (anomaly from the ensemble mean) described by a positive EOF1 ... a negative EOF1 would have the opposite pattern.

So this image of a positive EOF1 indicates lower pressures to the east and higher pressures to the west ... low pressure east of the ensemble mean.

Yeah I think I see that now, thanks man.

[CoastalWx]

It's an easy disclaimer to miss on SPC's site, and if you don't use SPC then you would have no idea at all.

I usually look at SPC if I'm working, but casually....I was looking at the SREFs on ewall so I didn't even notice that.

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM and Ukie are both hellecious front end thumps for a good chunk of SNE...particularly pike northward, but even CT gets a good dose. The WAA surge with very high moisture is impressive on this so we could be looking at pretty good snowfall rates on the front end.

[weathafella]

I would use http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ for means for now and manually remove the ARW runs. Or just calibrate mentally that the probs you see are accounting for 0 or near 0 snowfall from several ensemble members.

Excellent! Thank you and enjoy the beautiful beaches.

[CoastalWx]

GGEM and Ukie are both hellecious front end thumps for a good chunk of SNE...particularly pike northward, but even CT gets a good dose. The WAA surge with very high moisture is impressive on this so we could be looking at pretty good snowfall rates on the front end.

Dude, the GFS is a huge omega thump in the beginning. I could see a wall of S+ moving up quickly. I also wouldn't be shocked if we try to dryslot and then another surge of moisture redevelops and pivots NW.

[moneypitmike]

Using phrases like N of the pike or Rt 2 clears confusion.

To an extent as those descriptions can (and often do) mean very different things if you are in western areas vs. central vs. eastern. E.g., I would take south of the Pike in western Hampden (like Sandisfield, e.g.) more frequently than not compared to Ray's location for instnace.

ok take that back qpf in southern nh now over an inch! game on baby

You are suddenly worse than me with qpf, Eric.

GFS snow numbers: Gfs 12z MAV

South to north and for the 12/27 system only. And this is only through 12z/27 so inland and north there's plenty more coming

BDR. 2. (Means 2-4)

HVN. 2

BDL. 6. (Means 6-8)

PSF. 8. (Means 8+)

ORH. 6

BED. 4 (means 4-6)

LWM. 4

BOS. 4

PSM. 4

LWI. 4

EEN. 6

CON. 6

Maine starts to late for this run.

Jerry--do you have AQW, ORE, and ALY? TIA.

[snowgeek]

72 hour GEFS.

[Ginx snewx]

Oh my

[ctsnowstorm628]

Looks like many outside of southern CT/RI/MA have a decent thump of snow per latest trends.

Those GFS snow numbers are interesting even for the south coast.

[TalcottWx]

Oh my

Ray close to a shellacking

[ORH_wxman]

To an extent as those descriptions can (and often do) mean very different things if you are in western areas vs. central vs. eastern. E.g., I would take south of the Pike in western Hampden (like Sandisfield, e.g.) more frequently than not compared to Ray's location for instnace.

I don't think we have a single poster south of the pike in MA in that region...Tolland, MA/Sandisfield/Otis...so generally I don't think there is a ton of confusion. It generally means a line from BOS to BAF.

And "rt 2 in the interior" I think it fairly consistent with basically pegging Harvard, MA to ORE to Greenfield.

[snowgeek]

We seem to be getting some model consensus. Looks to good to be true for ENY and Berkshires barring sneaky warm layers. Classic storm track. Some of the snowfall rates for Western PA and Ohio look crazy as the primary peaks and then begins the transfer. 2" per hour for 6 hours?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Ray close to a shellacking

and warning snows here even in the valley

[TalcottWx]

Me and scooter would be driving our vehicles into trees on morrisey Blvd

[weathafella]

To an extent as those descriptions can (and often do) mean very different things if you are in western areas vs. central vs. eastern. E.g., I would take south of the Pike in western Hampden (like Sandisfield, e.g.) more frequently than not compared to Ray's location for instnace.

You are suddenly worse than me with qpf, Eric.

Jerry--do you have AQW, ORE, and ALY? TIA.

AQW. 8

ORE. 6

ALB. 6

[CoastalWx]

Me and scooter would be driving our vehicles into trees on morrisey Blvd

I don't expect much out of this.

[weathafella]

Me and scooter would be driving our vehicles into trees on morrisey Blvd

Gfs/cmc give you a several inch front ender.

[weathafella]

I don't expect much out of this.

Front ender? Winds seem to want to stay ne vs e.

[SR Airglow]

AQW. 8

ORE. 6

ALB. 6

Could you plug BTV and SLK in? Thanks

-skisheep

[TalcottWx]

Gfs/cmc give you a several inch front ender.

Could be a several inch backender if this doesn't go further south

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll stick with 2-5" imby pending the EURO.

[ORH_wxman]

I'll stick with 2-5" imby pending the EURO.

I'd be fairly surprised if you only got 2" or 3"...but I suppose if the BL gets really ugly quick, then it could happen. I don't envision it doing that though where you are.

[snowgeek]

GGEM says 2nd storm yes!!

[CoastalWx]

Front ender? Winds seem to want to stay ne vs e.

I could see you getting a little more than us here. East winds will limit accumulations here, even with like a 34F snow. If it can go more SE, I'd feel better. However, there is a good high to the north, so if you want to overperform...that's a nice thing to have.

[Zeus]

I could see you getting a little more than us here. East winds will limit accumulations here, even with like a 34F snow. If it can go more SE, I'd feel better. However, there is a good high to the north, so if you want to overperform...that's a nice thing to have.

Yeah, still loving the position of the high pressure... I'm still curious on this one. Could be a front end thump, could be a little more interesting than that if the trend continues (doesn't look like it would need to move too much at this point to make a difference for us).