Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 66hr GFS is a touch cooler. 0C line at 850 still south of all of SNE except ACK, MVY and the extreme SW tip of CT. Over 0.5" QPF for CT. gfs looks much cooler.. all of northern CT would get a huge front end dump.. the low crawls north after the transfer not allowing a torch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 May taint here in Lowell, but with this southeast trend (yes, it's been a trend), I may end up with more in Lowell than I will in Thornton. At least this should be an all snow event in the mountains with really minimal chance of anything not in frozen form. Congrats to those folks north and west of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I need that surface low to stay se....I'm pretty good in the mid levels now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Dec 25-26, 2002 keeps coming up as a top analog. Hope not (he said, selfishly.) AUG: 15", Belgrade Village: 8", MBY: 1". North edge cutoff 2nd only to 12/92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow, GFS stays almost all snow for N ORH county/GC/Monads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 May taint here in Lowell, but with this southeast trend (yes, it's been a trend), I may end up with more in Lowell than I will in Thornton. At least this should be an all snow event in the mountains with really minimal chance of anything not in frozen form. Congrats to those folks north and west of 495. qpf does not look that impressive for southern nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow, GFS stays almost all snow for N ORH county/GC/Monads. Just keep me below 35*..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 qpf does not look that impressive for southern nh Really? Shows 0.75 to 1.25"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ok take that back qpf in southern nh now over an inch! game on baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 qpf does not look that impressive for southern nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Really? Shows 0.75 to 1.25"+. There's really only hope for northern CT. coastal plain is cooked I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow, GFS stays almost all snow for N ORH county/GC/Monads. Yeah! Nice thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Just keep me below 35*..... If this trend could just pinch a little more SE, you're in business and may get close to being there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 There's really only hope for northern CT. coastal plain is cooked I think. Quick guesstimate based off of this run appears to indicate 4-7" for the northern half of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I really need to go back to VT. God dayum. Looks good up there on every piece of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The ULL keeps digging more ENE which is helping keeping the low from gaining much latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow, GFS stays almost all snow for N ORH county/GC/Monads. 8-12" to sleet/drizzle. Lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Quick guesstimate based off of this run appears to indicate 4-7" for the northern half of CT. Yeah I was thinking 4-8" inland even a little for the shore. Pretty climo storm with changeover from south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Quick guesstimate based off of this run appears to indicate 4-7" for the northern half of CT. would it give southertn nh 10-15 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The ULL keeps digging more ENE which is helping keeping the low from gaining much latitude. Yeah the way we lose heights off to the east, that wouldn't shock me if it turned into a big snow bomb around rt 2 in the interior. Still a ways to go though and the other guidance isn't quite this good looking. There's no doubt though that the trend has been for more easterly redevelopment in the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow, GFS stays almost all snow for N ORH county/GC/Monads. I'm waaaay behind, but I just saw the 06z GFS 500mb and surface panel synoptic evolution and was pretty agog! Also, the latter system going to 553mb S of NS on D9 panel is alarming considering that for that time range, you are talking about nano correction to get that back on the NE Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 1.25" qpf here, Looks like this run is all snow up here and close for the coast as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Based on current modeling, this looks very similar to the Christmas 2002 event. I'm just not so sure SW CT can get in on the really heavy snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think what is helping is the interaction with our S/W tomorrow andf the PV lobe north of Maine.Notice how they form a closed H5 contour which helps keep the flow underneath more zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 gfs is nice hit for even nw jersey, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Based on current modeling, this looks very similar to the Christmas 2002 event. I'm just not so sure SW CT can get in on the really heavy snow though. I-84 north and west looks solid per GFS. we still have a little time for northern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 looks to me that the key to this event is the deamplifying SW that shoots the low practically due east from the Jersey coast instead of pulling it up into CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 1.25" qpf here, Looks like this run is all snow up here and close for the coast as well The biggest question for folks up this way is surface temp. If you can stay near freezing, you'll get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The biggest question for folks up this way is surface temp. If you can stay near freezing, you'll get snow. Turning into the same type of scenario here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 May taint here in Lowell, but with this southeast trend (yes, it's been a trend), I may end up with more in Lowell than I will in Thornton. At least this should be an all snow event in the mountains with really minimal chance of anything not in frozen form. Congrats to those folks north and west of 495. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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