CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 31.9 here snow to ice back to snow? I think you will warm into the 30s as of now. Maybe it's like 35 or so for you, then perhaps fall back with ZR or very light snow. Usually when temps drop, the best lift is well north at that point, so it's crappy stuff falling...but I don't see you getting washed away. I really hope this moves a bit more SE. The reason you may warm into the 30s is because this erly flow will shove warm air north at all levels, but of course..it won't go as far as to torch you. But if it were to move SE more, than yeah..you may struggle for freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think you will warm into the 30s as of now. Maybe it's like 35 or so for you, then perhaps fall back with ZR or very light snow. Usually when temps drop, the best lift is well north at that point, so it's crappy stuff falling...but I don't see you getting washed away. I really hope this moves a bit more SE. The reason you may warm into the 30s is because this erly flow will shove warm air north at all levels, but of course..it won't go as far as to torch you. But if it were to move SE more, than yeah..you may struggle for freezing. Yeah even if it does tickle above 32..at least I'll have my beloved snowpack started for the season with tomorow's snow and whatever front end thump we get..Let's get one more nudge east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Road trip Wednesday....find a dog friendly place in NH/ME far enough away from ski resorts that there may be room at the inn so to speak....thinking about it... Its on the coast but the Harraseeket Inn in Freeport has a few rooms where they allow dogs. They put out dog beds and even do a dog gift basket for them- bones, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like the 12z nam has shifted a little SE from 06z with thurs system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah even if it does tickle above 32..at least I'll have my beloved snowpack started for the season with tomorow's snow and whatever front end thump we get..Let's get one more nudge east The NWS P/C forecast has a high of 41F. I blame you for the rain on thursday, next time instead of calling for days of snow on end, just say that there is no chance of ANY snow in the near future, this will guarantee back to back blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I hope that solution does not verify. Boxing Day storm brought hours of horrific snow growth and virga from Hartford to Brattleboro VT. The GFS is doing some funny stuff in the mid levels, and may end up being right for the wrong reasons. I sliced this cross section from roughly BTV to east of ACK. Strong fgen around H8 is creating a little ageostrophic circulation, with a lot of sinking motion around the CT River Valley. Couple that with that weird looking dry patch aloft, and this is where the GFS has a QPF minimum on Thursday. So it's not shadowing per se if the GFS is taken verbatim in this image. However, the result is the GFS has lower QPF where you would expect shadowing to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Its on the coast but the Harraseeket Inn in Freeport has a few rooms where they allow dogs. They put out dog beds and even do a dog gift basket for them- bones, etc. I ate both dinner and lunch there many times during the time I lived in Bath--good food. Another place that's a little more casual is the Lord Camden Inn in Camden. Not sure of their dog policy, but in the heart of Camden (right across teh street from Cappy's) and a great breakfast. I think some of the rooms have views of the harbor. Of course, that'll likely very possibly be tainted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Local TV mets invoking the dreaded "sloppy mess" for Thursday. Hoping we can stay mostly frozen here, but given the track and time of year I'm afraid that'll be an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 If you like winter storms you will like the look of 12z nam so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I hope that solution does not verify. Boxing Day storm brought hours of horrific snow growth and virga from Hartford to Brattleboro VT. In absolute terms, it was an okay event. But true to your statement, it sucked in relation others. I think that was the case all the way to HubbDave, too. If I recall, the GFS for several runs in advance was showing this dangling weenie about 30 miles wide coming down from VT. We kept thinking it was just some weird thing that would disappear (of course, Tip was able to right a treatise on how that might actually occur). End result was a sucky storm relative the hefty amounts elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 If you like winter storms you will like the look of 12z nam so far well if you live in central new england and northern mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 If you like winter storms you will like the look of 12z nam so far BEAUTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Local TV mets invoking the dreaded "sloppy mess" for Thursday. Hoping we can stay mostly frozen here, but given the track and time of year I'm afraid that'll be an uphill battle. I think eventually it will be tough to avoid the low level cold along the coast, but more and more this is looking like a binary forecast. With the strong east winds in the mid levels, we don't have to worry too much about H8 tickling 0C. It kind of pegs the whole sounding well below freezing except at the surface. So you'll likely snow until a flip to rain as things currently stand today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The NAM is showing much greater front end potential north of the pike. Granted, it is 12z NAM out to 72 hours...but this is not an outlier. GFS is pretty bullish, and Euro trended back a little more bullish at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z nam tracks the low over the cape in line with last nights runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like the 12z nam has shifted a little SE from 06z with thurs system a little faster also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 wow super juicy! very close to all snow in southern Nh! looks like it flips to rain for a bit then right back to heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I don't see how Kevin will be 41 with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z nam tracks the low over the cape in line with last nights runs My favorite track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 My favorite track... Yes, CC to Ack track possibly is where this looks to be heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 My only advice to Kevin, is that sometimes these lows that move towards NYC rapidly flood CT with warmer air aloft. Just saying that it is possible that happens, but a little early to nail specifics down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 My favorite track... For mid-levels... This storm is really tilted, so the sfc track going over the Cape still means we probably taint a bunch...but it would def lock in the surface cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 For mid-levels... This storm is really tilted, so the sfc track going over the Cape still means we probably taint a bunch...but it would def lock in the surface cold. Yeah, vertically stacked would be better, but this run (yeah, the NAM) and the earlier guidance is allowing me to breathe a little better. Garage door has been opened a bit... Sarah McLaughlin is on pause for now. I had been thinking it would tick NW. CO meter has stopped beeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 For mid-levels... This storm is really tilted, so the sfc track going over the Cape still means we probably taint a bunch...but it would def lock in the surface cold. Could get quite sloppy for some with that. Still a good 48 hours away, though. This could shift back in or keep on pushing SE a bit (it's no secret which I would prefer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Here is OceanStwx's -5SD 850 winds showing up again. What a beast mode conveyor coming off of the Atlantic. Too bad it's in the NAM's lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah, vertically stacked would be better, but this run (yeah, the NAM) and the earlier guidance is allowing me to breathe a little better. Garage door has been opened a bit... Sarah McLaughlin is on pause for now. I had been thinking it would tick NW. CO meter has stopped beeping I think your area (and probably mine considering I'm only about 12 miles SSE of you) is almost a lock for mostly/all frozen...just a matter of how much is going to be IP/ZR versus snow. We may try and tick to 34-35F near the end, but we'd probably be long since dryslotted at that point. Unless we see a notable shift back NW in guidance for the sfc low tracks, its going to stay cold at the sfc in our neck of the woods and certainly up through interior CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think your area (and probably mine considering I'm only about 12 miles SSE of you) is almost a lock for mostly/all frozen...just a matter of how much is going to be IP/ZR versus snow. We may try and tick to 34-35F near the end, but we'd probably be long since dryslotted at that point. Unless we see a notable shift back NW in guidance for the sfc low tracks, its going to stay cold at the sfc in our neck of the woods and certainly up through interior CNE. You guys have looked better since yesterday, Hopefully the trend holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Does this run also show the low slowing down as it gets up to New England? That was the most intriguing aspect to me. In my experience here they are usually accelerating out at this latitude. I've seen them get captured to our south and slow down, but not too may storms have slowed down up here lately unless I'm forgetting. Jan 2011 did linger some I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Does this run also show the low slowing down as it gets up to New England? That was the most intriguing aspect to me. In my experience here they are usually accelerating out at this latitude. I've seen them get captured to our south and slow down, but not too may storms have slowed down up here lately unless I'm forgetting. Jan 2011 did linger some I suppose. We ran out of panels, The s/w was south of here @hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 For mid-levels... This storm is really tilted, so the sfc track going over the Cape still means we probably taint a bunch...but it would def lock in the surface cold. This is looking awesome for a lot of folks. 12z NAM is just awesome up this way, and you guys still look to get like 6-12" before any change over...you may be completely dry slotted by the time temps come near freezing if they do at all. Big northeast winter storm en route. The tilted look to the low/mid/upper levels definitely is like Valentines Day 2007 in a way... where the track is perfect for SNE snows in some cases (the sfc that is) but the best snows could be more like ALB-Berks-CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.