powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z CMC fodder... hard not to think something will blink and it'll go SE or NW. Even ECM and these runs can go quite a bit SE without really having much affect on NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Pretty encouraged by the trends the past 24 hours. Definitely looking a lot more wintry...esp for N MA/S NH parts of SNE...but even further south should have a better shot now at a front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Precip predictions and models are an oxymoron if any believes after this many years unless your 12 hrs out 75% of the time with any degree of accuracy just my thoughts thenumbers may prove me wrong.But from my experience especially with snow amounts people start tripping , total pandemonian and arguments are caused by something insignificant as long as ma nature spreads the wealth see ya. Precip and models start more arguments and BS on boards talk to me when i'm looking out the window a very wise person told me that.I'm a simple man i think most understand that especially with snow people start tripping see ya. Simple but wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Pretty encouraged by the trends the past 24 hours. Definitely looking a lot more wintry...esp for N MA/S NH parts of SNE...but even further south should have a better shot now at a front end thump. epic enhanced snows for upslope areas of maine. phew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z Thursday 18z GFS yesterday was over bennington vt. 0z gfs was over sw ct. 6z GFS over E LI. Trends are encouraging for CNE/NNE, and even SNE if it continues today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hoping I don't see bare ground for months and months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Pretty encouraged by the trends the past 24 hours. Definitely looking a lot more wintry...esp for N MA/S NH parts of SNE...but even further south should have a better shot now at a front end thump. I went ahead and switched from short to long term today just for the chance to put in my two cents before I leave the country for the next week. If I'm going to miss the snow, the least I can do is forecast it, especially since I've had the storm the past two days on long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Crushed... Foothills of Maine and NH will pound if this scenario plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Pretty encouraged by the trends the past 24 hours. Definitely looking a lot more wintry...esp for N MA/S NH parts of SNE...but even further south should have a better shot now at a front end thump. Have to wonder if many places even hit freezing if these trends continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I went ahead and switched from short to long term today just for the chance to put in my two cents before I leave the country for the next week. If I'm going to miss the snow, the least I can do is forecast it, especially since I've had the storm the past two days on long term. Enjoy your vacation - we will miss your NNE perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Enjoy your vacation - we will miss your NNE perspective I'm thinking if trends hold I might go from the beaches in Puerto Rico straight to the slopes when I get back. I think we've got a pretty good storm total snow grids in there right now, so not sure how much it will change with my forecast today. Will just be fun to pour through the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Crushed... Foothills of Maine and NH will pound if this scenario plays out. Pretty typical of a lot of folks and mets included i guess, When they go on vacation we see big snows...........Enjoy your trip, But leave us with a few crumbs, Happy Holidays to you and your family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I went ahead and switched from short to long term today just for the chance to put in my two cents before I leave the country for the next week. If I'm going to miss the snow, the least I can do is forecast it, especially since I've had the storm the past two days on long term. I will be eager for your input on the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Was thinking the same thing...each system going a bit SE builds on the next. As modeled, the 12/30 system is pretty wintry even for alot of SNE and certainly for BOS. And then the Arctic empties into our fannies. Yeah, Jerry, It looks to turn sharply colder heading into Jan Ha! Didn't even notice that. Ya...don't think Jeff is getting only 4-8" lol and I don't think he cares about any further east in Maine. He is a real piece of work..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm thinking if trends hold I might go from the beaches in Puerto Rico straight to the slopes when I get back. I think we've got a pretty good storm total snow grids in there right now, so not sure how much it will change with my forecast today. Will just be fun to pour through the data. I looked at the page under snow forecasts and I don't see the grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z will be interesting. Lets track it over the islands this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I looked at the page under snow forecasts and I don't see the grid. We're hiding it from the weenies for now. In reality we're only allowed to have one official storm total snow grid, otherwise the formatters randomly decide which storm total grid they want to read into the zones and P&C. However, we're starting to get into the range where it might be time to allow the rest of the world to see our own clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro looked like a 4-6" deal for places like Will on the Pike. Wow....4-6" on the pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The shortwave over the west coast was partially sampled last night and fully sampled this morning by the sounding network. Today's 12z and tonight's 00z runs especially should have a better initialization of the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We're hiding it from the weenies for now. In reality we're only allowed to have one official storm total snow grid, otherwise the formatters randomly decide which storm total grid they want to read into the zones and P&C. However, we're starting to get into the range where it might be time to allow the rest of the world to see our own clown maps. Have a great vacation, with - Sds like that man what a wallop your FA gets. All of a sudden this year has a 07 feel to it for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We're hiding it from the weenies for now. In reality we're only allowed to have one official storm total snow grid, otherwise the formatters randomly decide which storm total grid they want to read into the zones and P&C. However, we're starting to get into the range where it might be time to allow the rest of the world to see our own clown maps. I would hide it from me too... I'm glad I have 350 feet and 12 miles north from Concord for this one. Do you guys ever break out central and northern Merrimack from southern Merrimack? big differences....or is that what the P&C are for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z will be interesting. Lets track it over the islands this time It can go as far S and E as it wants to for all I care... might even make it interesting for me again. Certainly seems to have been a bit of a shift back to the E in the last two or so runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow....4-6" on the pike? Yeah seemed like it. You may do fairly well given your latitude too. The mid levels really halt the warming at the ma/nh border so although you will warm through the 30s...you may have a good thump beforehand. Also, temps fall again as the low moves to CC so you may flip back to ZR or even SN. One more tick SE and it's real interesting, but I don't know if it's in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I would hide it from me too... I'm glad I have 350 feet and 12 miles north from Concord for this one. Do you guys ever break out central and northern Merrimack from southern Merrimack? big differences....or is that what the P&C are for? Merrimack is its own zone for forecasting purposes, but the P&C will resolve the gradients to some degree within the zone. Unless you are right on the edge, in that case you may get some funky wording, or go from 1-3" in one grid and 3-6" in the next grid box over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 looking good lets hope 12z trend continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It can go as far S and E as it wants to for all I care... might even make it interesting for me again. Certainly seems to have been a bit of a shift back to the E in the last two or so runs. Trying to keep my expectations reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah seemed like it. You may do fairly well given your latitude too. The mid levels really halt the warming at the ma/nh border so although you will warm through the 30s...you may have a good thump beforehand. Also, temps fall again as the low moves to CC so you may flip back to ZR or even SN. One more tick SE and it's real interesting, but I don't know if it's in the cards. 31.9 here snow to ice back to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Trying to keep my expectations reasonable Eh, if you're going to ask for anything, I find it best to ask for what you want. Plus, if you're stuck in my neck of the woods for the next month, it's go big or go home, coastal plain style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The GFS is doing some funny stuff in the mid levels, and may end up being right for the wrong reasons. I sliced this cross section from roughly BTV to east of ACK. Strong fgen around H8 is creating a little ageostrophic circulation, with a lot of sinking motion around the CT River Valley. Couple that with that weird looking dry patch aloft, and this is where the GFS has a QPF minimum on Thursday. So it's not shadowing per se if the GFS is taken verbatim in this image. However, the result is the GFS has lower QPF where you would expect shadowing to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Merrimack is its own zone for forecasting purposes, but the P&C will resolve the gradients to some degree within the zone. Unless you are right on the edge, in that case you may get some funky wording, or go from 1-3" in one grid and 3-6" in the next grid box over. I'm in Merrimack, but can literally walk down the street to Belknap so I know what you mean by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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