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December 27/28 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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NW of 84 gets pounded. Even the CP does well before changeover.

I'm not sure we'd change in alot of places. Almost identical track to 12/26/10 and we should have but didn't change. This system as modeled keeps at least the Pike area near the coast pretty close to all snow or maybe sleet mix late.

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I'm not sure we'd change in alot of places. Almost identical track to 12/26/10 and we should have but didn't change. This system as modeled keeps at least the Pike area near the coast pretty close to all snow or maybe sleet mix late.

These shifts are helping you guys down there big

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When I was in Krakow, Poland I met some Aussies who were in pain in the 10F afternoon. :) They were gonna be in NYC for New Years Eve. I told them it could literally be from about 10F to 50F given our Continental Climate in the NE USA. I think the colder end will verify better.

And a truly bitter first night in all of New England.

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Yeah that's pretty sick lol.

Still a wintry appeal though at the onset for a lot of SNE outside of the coastal plain. That could put down a 3-6 kinda deal for places like ORH I think.

We may head up early. Crazy not to!

Also I think more of you look good for the 30th same reasoning as earlier. Euro had been in ny or Ohio at this range with the last few. Gfs is east euro close ultimate track may be a little further offshore for that 30th event.

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6z GFS looks good for front end snows in SNE...someone gets walloped on the front end north of the Pike.

Total QPF looks solid, minus the usual downsloping spots off the Whites in far NE VT.

gfs_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

gfs_namer_105_precip_p48.gif

Plow is doing the driveway/access road to my place again this morning... another 2-3" of fluff last night. Third or fourth day in a row he's plowed. The worm has definitely turned up here. 30+" snow depth increase on the mountain in the last week...from 9" to 42" currently.

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Optimism grows, though still time for flys to land in the ointment--or improve for some in tainted areas. As it stands, I think I could see a few inches. Hopefully, we'll see the models hold with elements of winter for most and improve so that it's for all.

Regardless, a winter delayed is always better than a winter denied.

Merry Christmas, everyone.

28.1/19

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Precip predictions and models are an oxymoron if any believes after this many years unless your 12 hrs out 75% of the time with any degree of accuracy just my thoughts thenumbers may prove me wrong.But from my experience especially with snow

amounts people start

tripping ,

total pandemonian and arguments are caused by something insignificant as long as ma nature spreads the wealth see ya.

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Road trip Wednesday....find a dog friendly place in NH/ME far enough away from ski resorts that there may be room at the inn so to speak....thinking about it...

Hanover NH is a great college town, good restaurants and coffee shops and a beautiful green in the center of town. Over towards Woodstock are great Inns but probably booked. Maybe Lake Winnapesaukee?

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Regardless it was refreshing to see a nice shift east on both the Euro and GFS..One or 2 more means a lot more more snow for a lot of folks

Agree.

The BOX forecast and AFD are stil pretty wet for most of SNE. The AFD speaks relativley wintry for NW areas but going to rain even there. The official forecast is pretty underwhelming, e.g., here's the ZFP for my (the NW) zone.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. East winds around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Snow...sleet and freezing rain. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Thursday: Rain likely with pockets of freezing rain and snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

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Looks like my area to Jeff and Eric sits right at the edge of a lot of snow. The highest QPF is SE NH. The NW edge of that qpf tickles my county. If we stay just cold enough we would get over a foot. Jeff has the advantage of more latitude. Eric is as dicey as me. Reading the GYX discussion it looks like the upper low slows the surface as it nears our latitude...I wonder if that is a wild card? Who ever stays all snow during that slow down could get the deformation band sit over them for quite a while. This could over perform for some areas.

Also, HPC has 996 in the GOM Sunday morning but GYX says out to sea south of us with maybe flurries???

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Looks like my area to Jeff and Eric sits right at the edge of a lot of snow. The highest QPF is SE NH. The NW edge of that qpf tickles my county. If we stay just cold enough we would get over a foot. Jeff has the advantage of more latitude. Eric is as dicey as me. Reading the GYX discussion it looks like the upper low slows the surface as it nears our latitude...I wonder if that is a wild card? Who ever stays all snow during that slow down could get the deformation band sit over them for quite a while. This could over perform for some areas.

Still plenty of time to move that r/s line for better or worse. Love the overnight SE shimmy, could use a skosh more. No spiking!!

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