weatherMA Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You do realize that given our latitude and climate trends, snow "pack" might better be defined as snow transients '10-'11 will come again one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 '10-'11 will come again one day. Hopefully longer Good trends tonight, but not getting sucked back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 1) yes! 2) lot's wrong Well what I mean is that I could see it tuck into NYC and jog or redevelop ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah that may be a good crossroad right there. Jeffafa pants tent dream track,absolutely perfect for him and the Jayhawker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The H5 trough moves ENE and the surface low is captured or hanging with the best PVA and WAA combo which is why is sort of curls up to NYC and then drifts ENE, but that elongation of the isobars is a reflection of pressure falls from strong WAA along the south coast. Part of me thinks perhaps some sort of reflection would be possible somewhere along the south coast, but nothing terribly wrong with the depiction I see at the moment. Actually at hr 90, the low almost looked like it dumbelled arounf the ULL because the surface low is one the west side of the ULL. There's enough junk in southern Canada with confluence north of the border to prevent the thing from truly ripping west. Looks like it all stacks and occludes at just the right time. Still would be a messy storm IMO even farther north than the GFS indicates with a slew of issues ranging from sneaky mid level warmth to dry slotting. But, no doubt, and encouraging run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Jeffafa pants tent dream track,absolutely perfect for him and the Jayhawker. Pretty good for us in VT as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sunday's storm is back OTS. Storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah the GFS is a pants tent for my Killington trip. I'm still thinking (with my bad luck) that I'll get like 7" of snow then an awful layer of sleet and glaze of ZR making it just a hideous mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah the GFS is a pants tent for my Killington trip. I'm still thinking (with my bad luck) that I'll get like 7" of snow then an awful layer of sleet and glaze of ZR making it just a hideous mess. I am going to say your not............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah the GFS is a pants tent for my Killington trip. I'm still thinking (with my bad luck) that I'll get like 7" of snow then an awful layer of sleet and glaze of ZR making it just a hideous mess. That's the stuff where acl injuries are abundant. lol Still, a promising trend, especially for ski country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah the GFS is a pants tent for my Killington trip. I'm still thinking (with my bad luck) that I'll get like 7" of snow then an awful layer of sleet and glaze of ZR making it just a hideous mess. Without the glaze the sleet makes great skiing. No doubt mucho better than NCP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 There's enough junk in southern Canada with confluence north of the border to prevent the thing from truly ripping west. Looks like it all stacks and occludes at just the right time. Still would be a messy storm IMO even farther north than the GFS indicates with a slew of issues ranging from sneaky mid level warmth to dry slotting. But, no doubt, and encouraging run. Yeah just enough crap there to hang the low up by the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That's the stuff where acl injuries are abundant. lol Still, a promising trend, especially for ski country. Glaze takes it to another level, ripping thru knee deep crusty snow hurts when you fall it's pretty ugly. But sans the glaze, sleet is not bad at all. Hurts like bastard flying down at 40 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah the GFS is a pants tent for my Killington trip. I'm still thinking (with my bad luck) that I'll get like 7" of snow then an awful layer of sleet and glaze of ZR making it just a hideous mess. going later in the week? you may be ok. sleet is still very good skiing, a slight ZR zipper crust is fine, especially if the wrap around works back in. you could always splurge and drive north to S'Bush to milk the upslope machine if it kicks on. k-ton will probably make out nicely if it kicks on- 4" of fluff on a thinly crusted soft, recent flow is not bad skiing at all. it'll be mostly white, and likely pretty soft and enjoyable skiing. things look pretty damn good for the north country when you take into perspective how awful it looked 5-6 days ago. it's december, and we're in new england... how many washed out ski trips I've had I can't count. even a torch/wash out is still a good time in the mountains. and the forecast looks great, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Killington has had 9 since I promised Ryan 18-24 before he arrived, 9-15 to go, doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Killington has had 9 since I promised Ryan 18-24 before he arrived, 9-15 to go, doable. Very Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Killington has had 9 since I promised Ryan 18-24 before he arrived, 9-15 to go, doable. i'm no met, but the green mountains make lemonade. looked like lemons but a few days ago, and here we go. get after it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Killington has had 9 since I promised Ryan 18-24 before he arrived, 9-15 to go, doable. Might be double, not just doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z NCEP ensemble EOFs Focus on EOF1 ... first of all, the greatest amount of variance explained ... and secondly the SLP pattern is one that we're interested in --> related to the longitude of the track ... a positive EOF1 is exhibited by ensemble members on the eastern side of guidance. So now look at the sensitivity in the 500mb heights over the next 24 hours. Notice that the greatest sensitivity is actually not over the northeast in the confluence zone as one might expect, but is over the Southeast and Gulf. I think this is related to the idea of compression, and how much shortwaves are allowed to amplify in the flow ... lower heights over Florida allow shortwaves (such as our Christmas system) to dig freely for much longer before nonlinear terms grow leading to cyclonic wave breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think Sam'e knowledge has rocketed past about 95% of the bb...lol Huge Maine hit......from downeast to the north woods...bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GGEM last 3 runs. Very similar tracks with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z GEFS are maybe a tick south of 12z but 00z GEFS and op GFS are extremely close. Good agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GGEM a good thump before sleet and rain south of the Pike. Crushing storm for NNE and upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GGEM last 3 runs. Very similar tracks with the surface low. Verbatim, That is classic snow track here, Any Coastal that tracks over Yarmouth, NS or Bay of Fundy is a snow maker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I would love to lock that in GGEM a good thump before sleet and rain south of the Pike. Crushing storm for NNE and upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Verbatim, That is classic snow track here, Any Coastal that tracks over Yarmouth, NS or Bay of Fundy is a snow maker Yeah it looks awesome. GFS is also within 50 miles of that track. Longitude FTW has been the rule the last two years. Again it looks like ME keeps snow better than areas to the west at the same latitude. Edit: Looked at maps. Maybe not coastal ME changes to sleet and rain too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah it looks awesome. GFS is also within 50 miles of that track. Longitude FTW has been the rule the last two years. Again it looks like ME keeps snow better than areas to the west at the same latitude. In this type of system that pays big dividends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0z Euro a little colder at hr 60 then 12z @hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah, Euro is colder at h78. Probably a decent thump for interior CT and MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 All snow in the Berks at h84. Definitely colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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