HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam is slow and definitely will sort of scoot east a bit. Not great south of the Pike for snow but would be good north I think. Slooooooooooow too. Hopefully it's an indication of models in general not picking up on CAD and a slower mid-level warm intrusion. Still certainly not an ideal end game for everyone but similar to what you alluded to in an earlier post about a good front end dump from Northampton N up the Valley to S.VT. CAD certainly held longer than modeled during last weeks sn/pl/fzra event. Simply stated, still some confidence that a possible advisory/borderline warning event well N of the Pike/CNE is not off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hopefully it's an indication of models in general not picking up on CAD and a slower mid-level warm intrusion. Still certainly not an ideal end game for everyone but similar to what you alluded to in an earlier post about a good front end dump from Northampton N up the Valley to S.VT. CAD certainly held longer than modeled during last weeks sn/pl/fzra event. Simply stated, still some confidence that a possible advisory/borderline warning event well N of the Pike/CNE is not off the table. The NAM is always deathly slow with systems it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow the NAM is really really slow. Most models have snow starting by 21z Wednesday to 00z Thursday. NAM waits until 6z Thursday for a lot of the area. I like the trend though...I really think it will be close here but I think at the very least I will get 3+ before a changeover. Stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Models always seem to struggle with cad until the last day or 2, Trends have been colder ea run for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Models always seem to struggle with cad until the last day or 2, Trends have been colder ea run for the most part They never see front end snows usually til inside the last 48-72 hours, its no wonder all these storms years back were forecast to have 1 or 2 inches and had 6-7 before changeovers, the models then probably couldn't pick up on it even as it was occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 for kicks, 18z NOGAPS continued SE trend That would be a collective sigh of relief for most of the SNE posters looking at post-christmas toaster sales. I'd like to see how the performance of christmas eve/christmas day plays out and how modeling responds to evolution and development of that system with regards to wed/thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The NAM is always deathly slow with systems it seems. The models sucks for 48+ hours but ... maybe that deathly slowness is because folks are seeing 3-hourly plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Lock in the Schwartz Synoptic Seven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 They never see front end snows usually til inside the last 48-72 hours, its no wonder all these storms years back were forecast to have 1 or 2 inches and had 6-7 before changeovers, the models then probably couldn't pick up on it even as it was occurring. We see this time and time again where some of these systems end up over performing because it ends up being a colder solution then modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Lock in the Schwartz Synoptic Seven When was the last time that was dusted off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Its amazing, when you look at the GFS at 500mb at 30 hours you'd never think in a billion years any storm was cutting west within 36 hours, there is a blocking ridge in Canada and 2 vortexes in SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Speaking of the NOGAPS....I remember the time it shot down the Euro, GFS, and the rest of the suite. It was before the first significant snow of the 1999-00 season and it didn't come until 1/12/00....the first flakes in Boston. We've lived through some ratters...lol. It picked it up and we ultimately ended up with something like 7 inches. Probably hasn't done anything close to that since....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Its amazing, when you look at the GFS at 500mb at 30 hours you'd never think in a billion years any storm was cutting west within 36 hours, there is a blocking ridge in Canada and 2 vortexes in SE Canada. I was just looking at that, trough goes neutral in OK, it's the negative tilt later that flood us. Really doubt this goes west but inflow from the SE sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0z GFS coming in colder again 534dm over Central Maine, 18z had it over Northern Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam is slow and definitely will sort of scoot east a bit. Not great south of the Pike for snow but would be good north I think. Slooooooooooow too. What's up with the spurious 2-4 feet in upstae NY? Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like its slightly SE of 18z as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is going to be a big hit for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is slower and colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is slower and colder too. Yes on both, The colder trend continues thus the further SE track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sort of an odd track. It occludes and just sort of drifts east underneath us. Cold enough for a good thump especially along the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks more Euro like, Pike north still snowing at hour 84. Eastern Mass still mostly rain, but the trend is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS still trending the right way it seems, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 @72 is way east of the 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow, Much colder looks to be all snow here this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This is going to be a nice event for many people. At least the front ender is on the table. I wish the antecedent was colder ala 12/16/07. That was the grand daddy of front end SWFE. But then again 3/10/07 was pretty good also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks more Euro like, Pike north still snowing at hour 84. Eastern Mass still mostly rain, but the trend is good. H85 0C is up to the NH/MA border at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sort of an odd track. It occludes and just sort of drifts east underneath us. Cold enough for a good thump especially along the Pike. Position is about exactly where HPC progs had it. They may have been more aggressive/colder with the occlusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The occluded low never really makes it north of the south coast. I think it will be colder than currently depicted and each run over the next 24 hours will pick this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Interior does well, not really sure how 128 area does, I assume does SE/E winds would not be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sort of an unusual evolution on the GFS. Still favors NNE and upstate NY but maybe a nice surprise in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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