OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Seems odd to see this much confidence in a forecast as far as probabilities/percentages this far out... Wednesday: Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night: Rain, snow, and sleet before 3am, then rain and sleet between 3am and 5am, then freezing rain and sleet after 5am. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday: Rain, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Night: Rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Nah. It's gonna do SOMETHING. Just don't necessarily know exactly what yet lol. But I think we can go high on precip probs at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Now THAT'S a thing of beauty! It really is. The mid level low bombs at exactly the right time and place for SNE. I would love to lock that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nah. It's gonna do SOMETHING. Just don't necessarily know exactly what yet lol. But I think we can go high on precip probs at least When are you going to give us the Picasso? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 For the sake of the board, I'm going to put Kevin on ignore and likewise I hope he does the same. that will probably cut my posting down 50% as I won't feel the need to counterbalance what's being said. I also get what the guy from Attleboro was saying the other day, will try to consolidate thoughts. And for the record, if anyone is ever thinking I'm being condescending...just message me that's never, ever my intention. Have a good evening, you too Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 When are you going to give us the Picasso? When model guidance shifts back to putting me in the jackpot but seriously, I guess I have nothing else to do tonight, so maybe I'll give it a shot. I'm out of practice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Thank you and Merry Christmas to your family.I don't put anyone on ignore. I hope you get some snow down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If someone wants to start a 12/30 thread feel free, but let's keep this one about the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 When model guidance shifts back to putting me in the jackpot but seriously, I guess I have nothing else to do tonight, so maybe I'll give it a shot. I'm out of practice! lol, For entertainment purposes of course.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 ! Hello to you too. I forgot you are in Bedford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS ensemble mean is just a tick east of 18z op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If someone wants to start a 12/30 thread feel free, but let's keep this one about the 27th. I just did. I never start threads. At this point the change can only bring more positive mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Personally I think the chances of you getting anything other than snow is between slim and nil. I'd agree with that for both of these first two, and probably the 30th/1 storm too. I don't think folks are realizing that the trend this season has been for further NW tracking lows as we approach T minus 0. This is the concern this year, not these things going out to sea to the SE. Ugly. Rain/mix well up into upstate NY and NNE. Primary between BGM and MSV by 12z Thursday. Yep over ne pa this run. Bad run for cny Yeah and we still have over 3 days of model runs left. Could still be a Chicago snowstorm easily, lol. Unless we really see a pattern shift, I see no reason to deviate from what has been the pattern so far of models trending NW. Probably want one of these to start out near Bermuda at 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 BTV is sort of honking, lol. Executive summary in bold. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF PENNSYLVANIA BY 00Z THURSDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM AND THEN BECOME THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING JUST INSIDE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NYC BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND PORTLAND MAINE BY 00Z FRIDAY. A TRACK JUST OFF THE COAST IS A MORE IDEAL TRACK FOR A NICE SNOWSTORM FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS STORM. THERE WILL BE SOME WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...AND PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF SLEET TO MIX IN AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE GRIDS. HAVE MENTIONED LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES. LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL HAVE WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE STORM TOTAL QPF WILL RANGE FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS COULD BE OUR FIRST BIG SNOWSTORM IN A WHILE...WITH STORM TOTALS OVER A FOOT IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEW MODEL DATA AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE AND WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE COAST FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I don't think folks are realizing that the trend this season has been for further NW tracking lows as we approach T minus 0. This is the concern this year, not these things going out to sea to the SE. Yeah and we still have over 3 days of model runs left. Could still be a Chicago snowstorm easily, lol. Unless we really see a pattern shift, I see no reason to deviate from what has been the pattern so far of models trending NW. Probably want one of these to start out near Bermuda at 7 days out I agree but I think you're fine on this next big one. Even if you get hit pretty good and then a bit of a mess it's a large net gain for you. I worry more about NH ski areas...Maine seems to be doing okay as they are far enough NE. we'll see how it plays out tonight. First impulses are cleared the rockies so we should get a clear shot on the 0z for storm 1 tonight. That'll hopefully result in a clearer picture for storm 2 which is why I'm not loving the shift left today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I don't think folks are realizing that the trend this season has been for further NW tracking lows as we approach T minus 0. This is the concern this year, not these things going out to sea to the SE. Yeah and we still have over 3 days of model runs left. Could still be a Chicago snowstorm easily, lol. Unless we really see a pattern shift, I see no reason to deviate from what has been the pattern so far of models trending NW. Probably want one of these to start out near Bermuda at 7 days out Well to be sure they typically trend NW and then the last 36 hours seem to trend back east..Will has noted this several times. hopefully this happens and everyone can cash in. Why you're worried up there is beyond me. Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well to be sure they typically trend NW and then the last 36 hours seem to trend back east..Will has noted this several times. hopefully this happens and everyone can cash in. Why you're worried up there is beyond me. Merry Christmas Because he is probably trying not to piss anyone off again...............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Merry Christmas to all. We love Kevin. Maybe I will do a Christmas song to him later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Because he is probably trying not to piss anyone off again...............lol LOl..who did he upset? I'm just glad most of us are going to finally be able to have some snow and a base to build upon. Been a long wait for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Merry Christmas to all. We love Kevin. Maybe I will do a Christmas song to him later tonight. Maybe i will get Snownh to do one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 LOl..who did he upset? I'm just glad most of us are going to finally be able to have some snow and a base to build upon. Been a long wait for everyone Nobody lately, Everybody seems to be walking around on eggshells lately getting called out for spiking balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well to be sure they typically trend NW and then the last 36 hours seem to trend back east..Will has noted this several times. hopefully this happens and everyone can cash in. Why you're worried up there is beyond me. Merry Christmas Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you too... and lol, I'm not trying to piss anyone off. I just have a difference approach to the weather than some on here. I look for things that can go wrong... it keeps reality grounded, and the "best case" scenario is a snowstorm. That is always the best case scenario. So you know it can't get "better" than that. So instead of focusing on the best possible outcome, I look for what can go wrong. It really helps in forecasting for the ski area, too. Honestly the worst thing you can do is call for a pure, heavy snowstorm, and get it wrong (ie have it rain or something). It has implications for snowmaking right now (if it will not snow we will make snow on trail X, if it will rain we need to make snow on trail Y, and if its going to snow a lot then we'll skip trail X and go to Z), future grooming operations/scheduling, etc. I do like to weenie out with everyone else, but I know Ryan/Coastal/Will and the pro mets know this well, the best approach to actually forecasting for real life is a cautious build-up to time minus zero. You don't go full-bore heavy snowstorm 4+ days out with the changes we have been seeing on the models over the past several weeks. Things that look like slam dunks, aren't. And no matter how much I want it to snow, that can't drive your forecasting in anyway whatsoever... that's "wishcasting." We can always find ways for it to snow in our own snow-crazed heads... but reality is often a different beast. You have to be open and discussing of all possibilities. And in this situation I still think there's at least a 30% chance of mixing up here or like Danstorm mentioned, the ol' 33F drizzle/mist/dryslot changing back to wet snow showers. To most on here, getting 6-8" of snow followed by some 33F mist is a good deal, but if it crusts the snow surface that's an issue for skiing with grooming implications. I'm not sure if some folks know how much thought goes into weather and ski area operations, but every little nuance is analyzed and I bet it would shock you about how long we look/talk about this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nobody lately, Everybody seems to be walking around on eggshells lately getting called out for spiking balls Haha its not that... I'm really not one to spike balls on synoptic events. Now upslope is a different matter, lol. Like this past upslope event yesterday/last night, you can see them coming from a mile away. The mountains are always there so you don't need to track lift and where it will come from. You just need some wind to jam moisture into the mountains. We called that one with confidence last Wednesday. I feel much, much more unsure about synoptic events on the whole. Like this upcoming storm... I'm really not sure how the front side will play out, but I guarantee you if that surface low & mid level lows get over towards Maine (whether it gets there by tracking through SYR or BOS), it will upslope on the backside, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Haha its not that... I'm really not one to spike balls on synoptic events. Now upslope is a different matter, lol. Like this past upslope event yesterday/last night, you can see them coming from a mile away. The mountains are always there so you don't need to track lift and where it will come from. You just need some wind to jam moisture into the mountains. We called that one with confidence last Wednesday. I feel much, much more unsure about synoptic events on the whole. Like this upcoming storm... I'm really not sure how the front side will play out, but I guarantee you if that surface low & mid level lows get over towards Maine (whether it gets there by tracking through SYR or BOS), it will upslope on the backside, lol. The spiking was not directed at you, But many have been called out for it as there are a number of posters that read more into some post then they should and that's where i will end it, You are in a good spot no matter what the outcome is really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I agree with this basic idea and shake my head sometimes when people look at a graphical chart and argue that a particular model solution cannot happen. But I also agree with Will that the models in general, and the GFS in particular can underestimate surface temps in CAD situations by several degrees. The tiebreaker here is that what the GFS is depicting is nowhere close to marginal. That is a horrible SLP track for all of SNE. Maybe in the worst worse case a few sheltered valleys could hold onto 32 and freezing rain. But I see no mechanism to prevent the warmth from surging in. I think the only way to stay frozen in that setup would be to go above the warm layers in the highest peaks of the Whites. But you contradicted yourself - in one sentence, you say you shake your head when people argue from basis of graphical charts; but then you say your tie break is depiction based on a graphic chart. There is more too to the graphical interpretation than the mere scalar observation of it. There's history/wisdom, combined with Met knowledge involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 you know what i mean though. I'm not talking about biases, really. Just that if a model shows something I'm not going to wave my hands and say well no, this is really what would happen with that 500mb trough/surface low track. It wasn't that simple at the time ...well, still too. If you think the mention was motivated out of just waving hands and saying no - that's bs dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM Terns the H5 low due ENE over WV and into VA. ENE has a shot at some backlash on this run. A flat ridge over Missouri does not teleconnect well with a ST Lawrence river track although I am still forecasting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 IMO, there's still a ways to go on this storm. In the past few model runs, we've seen increased intensification with the primary which almost allows the low to get closed off by the time it makes it to the eastern seaboard. This type of setup would make the system more of a latitudinal event that could keep us in the game for wintry precip - at least to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nam is slow and definitely will sort of scoot east a bit. Not great south of the Pike for snow but would be good north I think. Slooooooooooow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM Terns the H5 low due ENE over WV and into VA. ENE has a shot at some backlash on this run. A flat ridge over Missouri does not teleconnect well with a ST Lawrence river track although I am still forecasting it. NAM is not bad, but outside it's "sweet spot", but trend is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 for kicks, 18z NOGAPS continued SE trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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