danstorm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 There may not be much of any snow S of the Pike for either threat at this rate. I'm not really feeling the front end thump of snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 There may not be much of any snow S of the Pike for either threat at this rate. I'm not really feeling the front end thump of snow from this. May wind up being a north of the Pike kinda deal. Could be one of those things where places like Northampton, Greenfield, Brattleboro and Keene are able to lay down a 3-6 before pinging hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lol at the 18 GFS and folks thinking it might be right, no support There is no reason to discount the 18/6z runs anymore. Using them for trends is cool. It trended nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lol at the 18 GFS and folks thinking it might be right, no support What are you talking about? The models all day have ticked back west a bit today... including the hallowed Euro ensemble mean. Seem to be converging on a solution that's messy for many but void of sig snow outside of upstate NY and C/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lets just throw runs out because we dont like them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What are you talking about? The models all day have ticked back west a bit today... including the hallowed Euro ensemble mean. Seem to be converging on a solution that's messy for many but void of sig snow outside of upstate NY and C/NNE. Stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 May wind up being a north of the Pike kinda deal. Could be one of those things where places like Northampton, Greenfield, Brattleboro and Keene are able to lay down a 3-6 before pinging hard. Even that may be pushing it... the height field looks atrocious. It may taint all the way to PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What are you talking about? The models all day have ticked back west a bit today... including the hallowed Euro ensemble mean. Seem to be converging on a solution that's messy for many but void of sig snow outside of upstate NY and C/NNE. Follow the logic tree: I like 1-2 with Lolli 3 n of hvn That really doesn't have much (if any) model support but good luck! Neither did the Nov 27 event ? Most of us got little if any from that lol Lol at the 18 GFS and folks thinking it might be right, no support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Even that may be pushing it... the height field looks atrocious. It may taint all the way to PF. Yeah most definitely. I will say the storm is filling/occluded by the time it reaches us so we begin to shut off some of the stronger advective processes. So eventually the warmth is going to slow down but as that happy the whole storm becomes disjointed and the strongest vertical motion begins to wane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Even that may be pushing it... the height field looks atrocious. It may taint all the way to PF. I like your thinking but I'm not ready to jump that far yet. I think NNE is fine, CNE probably too at least in terms of a net gain for snowfall. The trend is a little disturbing today and both the ensembles were further west than I'd like. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lets just throw runs out because we dont like them You must be new here ... welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What are you talking about? The models all day have ticked back west a bit today... including the hallowed Euro ensemble mean. Seem to be converging on a solution that's messy for many but void of sig snow outside of upstate NY and C/NNE. Gfs is alone in all rain for SNE. I think we can do a 2-4 thump inland before ice. Secondary should track over Cc per climo. Just my opinion on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gfs is alone in all rain for SNE. I think we can do a 2-4 thump inland before ice. Secondary should track over Cc per climo. Just my opinion on it Disagree about the CC secondary given where the models are placing the UL forcing. And it's not all rain for SNE it's snow to sleet to rain. I really don't see an ice signal at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah most definitely. I will say the storm is filling/occluded by the time it reaches us so we begin to shut off some of the stronger advective processes. So eventually the warmth is going to slow down but as that happy the whole storm becomes disjointed and the strongest vertical motion begins to wane. Love those disjointed occluded deals with drizzle and fog for everyone ... with the WAA precip outrunning the filling POS low way into Maine and some backside SHSN near Saranac Lake at 33. Kind of wish I had the last 7 days spent tracking back, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Love those disjointed occluded deals with drizzle and fog for everyone ... with the WAA precip outrunning the filling POS low way into Maine and some backside SHSN near Saranac Lake at 33. Kind of wish I had the last 7 days spent tracking back, Yeah it will turn pretty sloppy. Overall just not a great storm for us, unfortunately. Even if we were cold enough the whole thing is starting to wind down and fill. I don't know these things can put down a quick thump but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No need to fear... GFS has a snowstorm next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Big storm forming on the 18z GFS at 150...may wipe out memories of this disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like the gfs is going to be nice for the 12/30 storm...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I like your thinking but I'm not ready to jump that far yet. I think NNE is fine, CNE probably too at least in terms of a net gain for snowfall. The trend is a little disturbing today and both the ensembles were further west than I'd like. Let's see what happens. I'm not sold on this... but am on the sidelines regardless. As an aside, there is something aesthetically pleasing about a storm that tracks from the Chesapeake to the BM while strengthening... beautiful, discrete quadrants, consolidated precip, tight cutoffs, well defined advective processes... Rather than a storm that is broken up by the Apps while becoming an atmospheric finger painting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 to bad we couldnt get both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm not sold on this... but am on the sidelines regardless. As an aside, there is something aesthetically pleasing about a storm that tracks from the Chesapeake to the BM while strengthening... beautiful, discrete quadrants, consolidated precip, tight cutoffs, well defined advective processes... Rather than a storm that is broken up by the Apps while becoming an atmospheric finger painting. lol I like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Widespread 6-12" from 9z to 21z next Sunday...Congrats to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 OT...let's lock a week from tonight on this 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Seems odd to see this much confidence in a forecast as far as probabilities/percentages this far out... Wednesday: Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night: Rain, snow, and sleet before 3am, then rain and sleet between 3am and 5am, then freezing rain and sleet after 5am. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday: Rain, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Night: Rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 OT...let's lock a week from tonight on this 18Z GFS D6-7 widespread blizzard. Lets get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Widespread 6-12" from 9z to 21z next Sunday...Congrats to all. Thundersnow at precisely 6:46PM in ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Saki what is wrong with you? Please I am asking you one more time . Please stop doing doing this. You're commenting on people for looking at the 18z GFS claiming it has no support (which is factually incorrect) when you're on the other thread going at it with Ryan over his Xmas forecast when your forecast has almost no support but that's okay because of the 11/27 event? Makes a lot of sense. I'll tell you what, you stop baiting people including admins with your posts and I'll stop posting the ridiculous statements (cars off road due to winds, 4-8" on xmas, 96 hours of snow) you make when they bust. Others have asked YOU to stop with the routine, I think I speak for a silent majority in asking that it ends. It's grown tiresome. The pattern is what it is, we're here to talk weather not watch a sideshow and get drawn into drama. People were discussing the 18z GFS, that's all. HPC is pretty far west over NYC. Not bad up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Thundersnow at precisely 6:46PM in ORH This run only gives 9.6" to Hubbardston...while ORH gets 13.1". Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 D6-7 widespread blizzard. Lets get it. Now THAT'S a thing of beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 A dead zone with a sword fight. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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