powderfreak Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 BTV on-board... like the OP ECM track although it is entertainment. Toss the GFS as always? WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY...KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE COAST... WHILE THE GFS MODEL TAKES THE LOW SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES IT NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS LOW NEAR BOSTON EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ALSO HAS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY THAN THE GFS MODEL. LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO BE MAINLY SNOW ON THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HINTS AT SOME WARM AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 How are the euro ensembles here QPF wise for the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 How are the euro ensembles here QPF wise for the system? 1.2" in Buffalo, .1" in YYZ. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 1.2" in Buffalo, .1" in YYZ. Sorry. Wow talk about a gradient. Oh well still plenty of time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow talk about a gradient. Oh well still plenty of time though I was joking lol. I don't know what they were haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I was joking lol. I don't know what they were haha Lol u scared me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 6z GFS is snow to rain just like the EC ENS...but why even look?It's not all snow, so toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You know things are looking up when you can't tell the difference between Saki's and Kevin's posts...lol. lol, great post to start my day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You'd have to think the GFS is slightly s & e, it's usual bias. I expect it come west a bit towards the Euro. This has the feel of a coastal hugger that probably gives a changeover to the coastal sections but still some snow on the front end. I think in about 2 or 3 weeks we will look back at this as part of a slow but steady stepping down process that will have covered all of us with a decent snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You'd have to think the GFS is slightly s & e, it's usual bias. I expect it come west a bit towards the Euro. This has the feel of a coastal hugger that probably gives a changeover to the coastal sections but still some snow on the front end. I think in about 2 or 3 weeks we will look back at this as part of a slow but steady stepping down process that will have covered all of us with a decent snowpack. Euro changes just about all of us over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 That was a nice shift on the euro last night in th right direction, The hugger idea is gaining some support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The storm has sped up a bit on guidance as well. This is really a Dec 26/27 event now. But obviously it could change again or linger into the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro changes just about all of us over. Yes but does it not seem to be in the process of shifting east? I was meaning to suggest that the solution ends up between the where the two models are right now. Even with a changeover wouldn't you get a decent amount of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yes but does it not seem to be in the process of shifting east? I was meaning to suggest that the solution ends up between the where the two models are right now. Even with a changeover wouldn't you get a decent amount of snow? Yes its shifting east...yes I'd get plenty of snow even on the OP Euro. The trend is real...but its questionable how much it matters yet. An event 6 days out is an eternity. For reference, at this lead time, the Nov 27 scraper for SNE looked like a NNE storm, the Dec 16-18 systems looked like a lot of snow for New England with minimal taint, and today's storm looked like a major snowstorm for NE. A lot can change...but I'd start feeling decent about it in another 24-36 hours we see this finding a good consensus on the models that is still a very wintry appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 As is often the case when this happens I don't like that the NOGAPS is relatively far west with the event, the 00Z run was ORF-BID or so, the 06Z run over or west of NYC. It is still 5-6 days away but I never like seeing the NOGAPS near other models when they are west or amped, even 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yes its shifting east...yes I'd get plenty of snow even on the OP Euro. The trend is real...but its questionable how much it matters yet. An event 6 days out is an eternity. For reference, at this lead time, the Nov 27 scraper for SNE looked like a NNE storm, the Dec 16-18 systems looked like a lot of snow for New England with minimal taint, and today's storm looked like a major snowstorm for NE. A lot can change...but I'd start feeling decent about it in another 24-36 hours we see this finding a good consensus on the models that is still a very wintry appeal. Of course you are right, but this pattern is different and climo suggests we get snow, and the teleconnections are shifting in the right direction. Also this has been pretty steady for a number of runs with the GFS and others showing coast redevelopment and the Euro taking big steps east. Of course it could all go down that hoppah but I think that is becoming less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 As is often the case when this happens I don't like that the NOGAPS is relatively far west with the event, the 00Z run was ORF-BID or so, the 06Z run over or west of NYC. It is still 5-6 days away but I never like seeing the NOGAPS near other models when they are west or amped, even 5 days out. what that means to me is that the ultimate track won't be near the consensus we have today....Ie it's going into western ny or out towards the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Logan11 will probably end up nude, while most of us await the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 what that means to me is that the ultimate track won't be near the consensus we have today....Ie it's going into western ny or out towards the bm I doubt this one cuts that far west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I doubt this one cuts that far west.... Its a coastal, it's not cutting anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I doubt this one cuts that far west.... I would agree its probably not going west of the Apps and logic tells us not over the Apps either, something close to or over NYC though very possible. The problem even with the 00Z Euro/06Z GFS tracks is that they probably are almost entirely rain except for interior MA/CT because the angle the system approaches from is too SW'ly which results in a SE flow ahead of the storm, if that same track occurs approaching more from the S you can see a big front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I would agree its probably not going west of the Apps and logic tells us not over the Apps either, something close to or over NYC though very possible. The problem even with the 00Z Euro/06Z GFS tracks is that they probably are almost entirely rain except for interior MA/CT because the angle the system approaches from is too SW'ly which results in a SE flow ahead of the storm, if that same track occurs approaching more from the S you can see a big front end snow. Absolutely what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Its a coastal, it's not cutting anywhere Sure, but coastals can still suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Sure, but coastals can still suck. Depends on locale. The fact the Euro has trended from Chicago to off shore in 2 days should be very telling . It's not a cutter and most will see snow/ ice. Big cities might be the battleground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 lots of football spiking for a trend that can easily reverse given that we're still talking about day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Depends on locale. The fact the Euro has trended from Chicago to off shore in 2 days should be very telling . It's not a cutter and most will see snow/ ice. Big cities might be the battleground That EURO track is ugly...make no mistake about it. Heavy, heavy taint. Worse for me than it is you, but you would rain in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Plenty of time left to iron details out on this one, It has my interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 lots of football spiking for a trend that can easily reverse given that we're still talking about day 6. Agreed. I think it is better to take a wait and see approach until at least the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 That EURO track is ugly...make no mistake about it. Heavy, heavy taint. Worse for me than it is you, but you would rain in that scenario. yeah it turns over to rain for everybody in SNE...but it has a good front end dump before that. I'd be concerned about sleet too with a track like that. Allusions of the Valentine's Day Massacre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 yeah it turns over to rain for everybody in SNE...but it has a good front end dump before that. I'd be concerned about sleet too with a track like that. Allusions of the Valentine's Day Massacre. V Day was colder than that is....I was all snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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