Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 But trended quite a bit toward the developing consensus it seems:eems: the 12z Euro has 2m temps above freezing in all of RI, almost all of CT aside of a tiny portion in the NW and almost all of MA aside of extreme western areas. By 96 hours the 12z Euro had onbody in SNE (MA/RI/CT) below 0c at 2m or at 850mb per the wunder maps. At 850mb it had the 0c line along the southern MA border at 90 hours. that's not terrible far off from the 18z NAM and likewise it had a wrap of warm air into NJ and PA aloft at that time, similar to the NAM. The NAM is probably a little warner/west of the 12z Euro but it's not horrendously different considering the timeframe and the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No, right thread. It's extremely warm for the 27/28 storm. Everything is torched prior to precip even arriving. Oh I only see NAM to 84 and it's East of 12 Z , what's 200 miles in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Oh I only see NAM to 84 and it's East of 12 Z , what's 200 miles in 6 hours. Eh, it's really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 seriously, my first time back from Oklahoma and they're going to get 12" while I get sleet to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Eh, it's really warm. Wunder maps show just how warm. It's torching pre-precip, 0c line already punching into central MA by 84 hours. Just saying what it shows like you, but verbatim there's really no frozen on it front end. 84 hour NAM though. I don't view the Euro OP as much of a front end thump as others here based on wunder. It looks to me like the majority of the precip for the eastern 2/3 of SNE falls after the 0c line has ripped through. A quick burst of frozen that becomes really intense and then changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 How is the 27th trending for NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Wunder maps show just how warm. It's torching pre-precip, 0c line already punching into central MA by 84 hours. Just saying what it shows like you, but verbatim there's really no frozen on it front end. 84 hour NAM though. I don't view the Euro OP as much of a front end thump as others here based on wunder. It looks to me like the majority of the precip for the eastern 2/3 of SNE falls after the 0c line has ripped through. A quick burst of frozen that becomes really intense and then changes. not to mention the best dynamics really miss us completely. I suppose if I'm going to get front end rain I'd rather have scattered light showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 How is the 27th trending for NNE? great up there, don't sweat it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 not to mention the best dynamics really miss us completely. I suppose if I'm going to get front end rain I'd rather have scattered light showers Well there is a pretty impressive thump of warm advection that moves through on the models even though the best forcing through DCVA remains well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 not to mention the best dynamics really miss us completely. I suppose if I'm going to get front end rain I'd rather have scattered light showers You should get plenty of front end snow in Keene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 great up there, don't sweat it... I would not spike the football anywhere,either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 seriously, my first time back from Oklahoma and they're going to get 12" while I get sleet to rain Maybe, the busts have been horrific this year all across the country from Denver to Chicago. Nothing locks in anywhere this year. Basic nowcasts seem to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 How is the 27th trending for NNE? Us NNE'ers may want to lay low for a bit. It looks solid up here but we all know the hazards of taking things verbatim 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I would not spike the football anywhere,either way. Agreed. It could definitely still rain up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Agreed. It could definitely still rain up here. Agreed. I think you're safe up there in Stowe... I'm definitely more on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Will, does this become a significant Icing power outage event here in Amherst, NH? Howdy neighbor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Personally I think the chances of you getting anything other than snow is between slim and nil. Agreed. It could definitely still rain up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Personally I think the chances of you getting anything other than snow is between slim and nil. I'd agree with that for both of these first two, and probably the 30th/1 storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This storm blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z GFS a bit farther west/milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z GFS a bit farther west/milder. Yep over ne pa this run. Bad run for cny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Ugly. Rain/mix well up into upstate NY and NNE. Primary between BGM and MSV by 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 ugh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z GFS a bit farther west/milder. A bit? Warm is the understatement on the 18z models from NCEP. Did I read you right earlier, the Euro ENS were NW of the OP? Normally that'd be a pretty good indicator where this might be heading. Inside of about 84 hours here we go yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Howdy neighbor! ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 snow/mix going quickly to rain thats been the trend this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hey, at least we'll get some snow at the onset before we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lol at the 18 GFS and folks thinking it might be right, no support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hey, at least we'll get some snow at the onset before we torch. and then watch it wash away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like an advisory event north of MA/NH border before the changeover. 12z EC was much colder though. Stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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