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December 27/28 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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For awhile you turned ok on here but the last month or so you have been nasty and unreadable. Maybe you are frustrated with where you live or lack of snow. Whatever it is we are all asking you nicely to stop the nonsense. All you ever do is try and attack and belittle folks. Part of the reason why Phil left

Dude... you're the king of unreadable post when it comes to weather and you're pretty much the laughing stock of the board. Give your used care salesman schtick up.. It's beyond amusing anymore after 10+ yrs even to me who is actually a fan of your soap opera game.

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Preset good consensus on wintery start to January albeit not locking in most likely. 1993-94 is off the table I think with the tendency for the EPO to go positive.

HM says it's coming, it's coming. We are seeing some deep plunges show up on the models of cold air finally.

Summarizing the model diagnostic

12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF AND FINAL PREFERENCES

ANY MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY

LARGE TO IMPACT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.

For XMAS:

WITH THE QUICKER ADJUSTMENT MADE BY

THE 12Z ECMWF...BLENDING THE GFS/ECMWF WILL AFFORD A REASONABLE

COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SMALL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

For Storm 2

GIVEN OVERALL RECENT TRENDS...THE RECOMMENDATION WILL NOW INCLUDE

THE 12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE 12Z GFS...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z EC

MEAN. DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING QUITE AS FAR NW AS THE

NAM/SREF...BUT ONE MUST GIVE RESPECT TO THE NRN ENSEMBLE MEANS IN

CONTRAST TO THE SRN UKMET/CMC SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z CMC HAS COME

INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS COMPARED TO ITS 00Z

RUN...BUT THE CMC CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREFERENCE

WITH THE UPPER LOW.

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The secondary will never do that. I'd be surprised if it got inland from the immediate coastal plain. Climo and topo just seems to prevent it.

The idea of the old primary staying to dominant and tracking across the Berkshires etc. isn't 100% dead I guess, but hopefully quite unlikely.

Lol

I know I have some things to help with el and latitude

But if this heads up the Hudson or Connecticut, then it gets ugly

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Prob 2-4" front end...then IP/ZR for a time and then rain. Still a ways to go on this though. Small shift SE will increase the snow a decent amount.

What's your take for my area? I'm thinking 1-3 and changeover but if we can manage more northerly component of surface winds the s a better chance. Overall appears down the drain net but it wouldn't take much to change that ala 12/16/07. Of course that antecedent air was frigid.

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??

You went after cweat for no reason during a post euro temper tantrum.

The one thing that may help lock in frozen but keep the whole storm a bit more unimpressive is the fact it occludes early and is filling by the time it reaches us. That may let the whole thing slide east a bit as it's done digging prior to us.

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